Tueday 8th July 2025

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President Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs for a handful of countries, closely aligned to the Liberation Day rates. Of those announced Japan and South Kores are front and centre, each subject toa 25% base rate. 30% is being reapplied to South Africa. Although US equities are well down, NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the market response was rather tame. Perhaps because the implementation of these new rates doesn’t apply until 1st August. Maybe the rates will change. Meanwhile, locally, the focus is on the NAB Business Survey this morning, the RBA decision later. Markets have fully priced in a 25bp cut.

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Monday 7th July 2025

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The letters go in the post today, apparently, containing the personally selected tariff that will be applied to US trading nations. The good news is that they probably won’t apply until 1st August, giving time for negotiations. Meanwhile, Scott Bessent says the US is aiming to reach a deal with 18 nations. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this all adds to uncertainty and it’s hard to imagine there won’t be volatility in markets this week. There wasn’t much response to the passing of the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, however. Markets have taken it in their stride. There’s likely to be some response to the weekend’s news that OPEC+ are upping production from next month. Ray suggests it’s a move to lower prices and gain market share. Trump’s ‘Drill Baby Drill’ might be a little less viable. Phil and Rya also look at Friday’s Australian Household Spending report and look ahead to this week’s rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ.

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Friday 4th July 2025

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President Trump has fallen in approval ratings since taking office. Does that mean he’ll lose seats in the House or the Senate in the Mid-Terms next year? It’s still a way off, of course, but it would be useful to know whether the President’s policy agenda will continue at pace for a year and a half, or three and a half years.

Dr Debra Leiter is an associate professor with the Department of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. She says there’s an iron law of mid-term loss, where the President’s party invariably sheds support and can lose control of the Senate or the House. But, despite his falling approval ratings, there’s a chance President Trump will buck the trend. Prof. Leiter tells Phil that you get a more accurate view of the outcome if you ask voters who they think will win, not who they will vote for. And, right now, that’s showing a clear victory for the Republicans.

Then what happens? If President Trump manages to maintain control, who follows him into the White House? Will his policies be perpetuated, or will US politics swing back to the centre, or even the far left?

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