Can you really make money sports betting on low-risk, high-probability events?

Topics covered include:

• The growing size and influence of the U.S. sports betting market
• Recent sports betting scandals
• How sports betting odds work
• An intriguing low-risk approach to sports betting
• Why the low-risk sports betting approach is still gambling with a negative expected return
• Behavioral biases that encourage sports betting
• Revisiting the difference between investing, speculating, and gambling

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Show Notes

https://info.lowstressbets.com/

How Do Betting Odds Work? by OC Staff—oddschecker

Senate Commerce Committee Wants Answers on NBA Gambling Scandal—Senate Commerce Committee

"US sports betting crisis grows as MLB’s Clase and Ortiz indicted over alleged rigged pitches" by Tom Lutz—The Guardian

ESPN Will Not Let Failure Push It Out Of The Gambling Business by Chris Thompson—Defector

22% of All Americans, Half of Men 18-49, Have Active Online Sports Betting Account—Siena University Research Institute

A Review of Sports Wagering & Gambling Addiction Studies Executive Summary—National Council on Problem Gambling

How sports gambling took over prediction markets in the US by Sam Learner, Oliver Roeder and George Steer—The Financial Times

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What’s the difference between hoarding and investing? There’s a reason markets built on productive assets—like stocks and bonds—are far larger than hoarding markets such as gold and cryptocurrency. In this episode, David explores why that is, and shares why he recently bought Zcash, and how it’s both similar to and different from Bitcoin.

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Show Notes

Zcash

CoinGecko

The Largest Companies by Market Cap in October 2025—The Motley Fool (Accessed October 2025)

DOJ Seizes $15 Billion in Bitcoin as U.S. and U.K. Target Massive Southeast Asian Crypto Scam Network—Chainalysis

Selling Gold in the Diamond District - Money for the Rest of Us Substack

Related Episodes

532: Should Private Assets, Gold, and Crypto Be Investment Options in 401k and other Defined Contribution Plans?

513: Crypto—Innovation or Insanity? Meme Coins, Hacks, and Strategic Bitcoin Reserves

432: Are the Economy and Financial Markets Zero-Sum Games?

496: Are You Taking Enough Aspirational Risk?

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How AI gets simple finance wrong, and how to make it work for you, not mislead you

Topics covered include:

• How AI ignores the time value of money
• A detailed example of ChatGPT misleading by making a simple math mistake
• Some examples of opportunity costs and sunk costs when making financial decisions
• Understanding how AI works can help us use it more effectively

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Show Notes

What Kind of a “PhD-level Expert” Is ChatGPT 5.0? I Tested It. by Gary Smith—Mind Matters

Top US Army General Says He’s Letting ChatGPT Make Military Decisions by Joe Wilkins—Futurism

Why Language Models Hallucinate by Adam Tauman Kalai, Ofir Nachum, et al—Arxiv

Auto Loan Calculator—nerdwallet

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538: Forests, Fakes, and the Fight for the Real

457: AI’s Fork in the Road: Societal Bliss or Existential Threat

450: How Higher Interest Rates Alter Our Financial Blueprint

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Are gold and silver up more than 50% in 2025 because investors fear currency debasement, or is this rally just the latest meme trade? In this episode, we explore the supply and demand forces behind gold and silver, discuss investing strategies, and outline what to watch to see if investors truly are worried about debasement.

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Show Notes

The Great Debasement Debate Is Rippling Across World Markets by Ruth Carson, Naomi Tajitsu, and Masaki Kondo—Bloomberg

How long will gold mania last?—Financial Times

Dalio Echoes Griffin in Seeing Gold as Safer Than the US Dollar by Alexandra Semenova, Natalia Kniazhevich, and Lisa Abramowicz—Bloomberg

Gold Reserves by Country—World Gold Council

Gold's rise in central bank reserves appears unstoppable by Jamie McGeever—Reuters

Above-ground stock—World Gold Council

Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2025—World Gold Council

Treasury Term Premia—Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Trey Reik—LinkedIn

Investments Mentioned

iShares Gold Trust (IAU)

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)

SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM)

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How to decide when to invest in municipal bonds versus new tax-efficient bond ETFs that don't invest in munis.

We analyze several newer ETFs that earn bond-like returns while avoiding paying taxable income distributions.

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Investments Mentioned

Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB)

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)

JPMorgan Ultra-Short Municipal Income ETF (JMST)

Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box ETF (BOXX)

F/m Compoundr U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (CPAG)

F/m Compoundr High Yield ETF (CPHY)

NEOS Enhanced Income Aggregate Bond ETF (BNDI)

NEOS Enhanced Income 1–3 Month T-Bill ETF (CSHI)

Show Notes

US municipal bond defaults and recoveries, 1970-2022 by Moody's Investor Service—Fidelity

Five Reasons Municipals Have Rarely Defaulted by Matthew Norton—Bernstein

470 Plus: Annuities Correction, Europe versus U.S. Value Stocks, Analyzing BOXX, and Accredited Investor Rules—Money for the Rest of Us

Cboe:BOXX | Investment case—alpha architect

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This week there isn’t a regular Money for the Rest of Us episode, but David shares an update on what’s happening behind the scenes. He previews an exclusive Plus member livestream on the forces shaping the next decade, explains why there won’t be a new episode next week, and highlights fresh content available on YouTube, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Substack. David also reflects on consistency, community, and the process of writing his second book. Regular episodes return in October.

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What happens when the money supply grows too slowly or too quickly? From gold-standard deflation to QE-driven inflation and inequality, we trace the lessons of monetary history, and what we can do today to protect ourselves in an age of infinite money.

Topics covered include:

• How is the money supply measured, and why is it a subjective exercise
• What is an example of a negative money shock
• Why an optimal monetary policy would lead to deflation, and why that is a good thing
• What causes inflation
• How quantitative easing contributed to wealth inequality
• What is demurrage currency
• The unorthodox way Richard Nixon sought to combat high inflation and a strong dollar
• How to increase our wealth in an era of infinite money

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Show Notes

Distribution of Household Wealth in the U.S. since 1989—The Federal Reserve

M2 (M2SL)—FRED

Good Versus Bad Deflation: Lesson from the Gold Standard Era by Michael D. Bordo, John Landon Lane, and Angela Redish—NBER

Speech by Richard Nixon (15 August 1971)—CVCE

US - Total Market Cap Divided by M2 Money Supply—MacroMicro

Did Quantitative Easing Increase Income Inequality? by Juan Antonio Montecino and Gerald Epstein—CEPWeb

Does Quantitative Easing Affect Inequality: Evidence from the US - Nektarios Michail

Demurrage currency—Wikipedia

Debt: The First 5,000 Years by David Graeber

Related Episodes

482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity

431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold

336: Own What Is Real

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From salmon leaping along the Vancouver Island coast to fake bands on Spotify, this episode explores the divide between the physical and digital economy, and what lumber markets, managed forests, and everyday life teach us about staying connected to the real.

Topics covered include:

• How timber investing works and why it is reflective of how industries evolve
• What percent of economic output is physical versus digital, and how has that changed over the past fifty years
• How households spend their leisure time
• Why live events stand out in an AI-infested world
• Does it matter if ad images, videos, and podcasts are fake?
• Why we need to stay connected to the real

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Show Notes

Lumber Prices Are Flashing a Warning Sign for the U.S. Economy by Ryan Dezember—The Wall Street Journal

Lumber Price—Trading Economics

J.Crew used A.I. to counterfeit their own vibes—Blackbird Spylane

American Time Use Survey Summary—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Related Episodes

535: Six Principles for Thriving Under Uncertainty and How Big Tech Is Doing the Opposite

531: Will AI Wipe Out Half of White Collar Jobs or Is There an AI Bubble?

60: Are You Hoarding Or Investing?

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