Join the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland for its annual economic outlook Fed Talk webinar.

Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, will analyze incoming economic indicators and walk through the US economic outlook for 2026. The session will offer valuable insights for professionals, academics, business leaders, and others interested in economic trends and policy.

Various economic indicators critical for understanding the health and direction of the economy will be covered:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The broadest measure of economic activity at the national level.
• Inflation Rates: Analysis of current inflation trends, the factors driving them, and their implications.
• Labor Market Indicators: Employment growth, the unemployment rate, wage growth, and other measures that capture the health of the labor market.
• Consumer Spending: Data related to the health of the US consumer, whose spending powers most of the overall economy.
• Business Spending: AI-related investments are raising capital spending, but that's just one part of the story.
• And more.

The Fed Talk program is the Cleveland Fed's speaker series illuminating an array of issues related to the economy. Each session features economists and experts discussing subjects such as inflation, workforce trends, banking, and community development. Attendees can enhance their understanding of economic issues and trends. Interactive Q&A sessions allow participants to ask questions and engage directly with speakers.

• Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Julianne Dunn, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Cincinnati Branch

The regional analysis group at the Cleveland Fed monitors the economy across the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, eastern Kentucky, western Pennsylvania, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. One important tool the group uses to keep tabs on economic developments across this region is the Business Outlook and Trends Survey (BOTS).

Join us for a conversation about the BOTS and the key role it plays in illuminating economic trends across the Fourth District.

The BOTS is distributed by partner organizations twice a year and gathers data from a diverse range of businesses in the Fourth District on topics such as

• Labor markets
• Prices
• Demand for regional goods and services

The data collected through the BOTS potentially provide insights into economic changes before they show up in published data, helping businesses understand why and how trends may be occurring. The survey also informs the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, ensuring that the unique needs and conditions of the Fourth District are considered in the broader context of national economic policy.

Speakers will take audience questions following the presentation.

• Julianne Dunn, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Cincinnati Branch
• Brooke Dirtzu, economic analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Carol Moseley, research analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Brandon Mendoza, president and CEO, Erie Regional Chamber and Growth Partnership

• Russell Mills, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Pittsburgh Branch

In today's economic landscape, understanding the importance of inflation expectations is valuable for everyone—from everyday consumers to business owners and policymakers.

Inflation expectations are what people think will happen to prices for goods and services in the future. This Fed Talk aims to demystify this concept.

Expectations about inflation matter because they play a critical role in economic decision-making which, in turn, will influence actual inflation. For example, if consumers expect higher inflation, they may spend more now. If businesses expect higher costs, they may raise prices preemptively. Both actions can contribute to higher inflation.

Because we cannot directly observe inflation expectations, we use various methods to measure them. These methods include surveys, forecasts, and inflation-related financial instruments.

October’s Fed Talk will highlight the relationship between expected and actual inflation. Our panelists will also be discussing:

• The definition and relationship between the price level, inflation, and inflation expectations
• The importance of inflation expectations for the decisions of consumers and firms
• The factors that influence inflation expectations, such as past inflation rates, economic policies, and global events
• Why central banks are interested in inflation expectations and how central banks can influence these expectations
• The importance of “well-anchored” inflation expectations
• Measuring inflation expectations as well as the interpretation and limitations of these measures
• A closer look at measures of inflation expectations developed and maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Speakers will include economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research. The Center is a leading resource to better understand all aspects of inflation through the availability of research, indicators, and educational tools.

Following the presentation, speakers will take questions from the audience.

• Damjan Pfajfar, Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Robert Rich, Senior Economic and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Chuck Soder, Senior Media Relations Specialist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland