Join the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland for its annual economic outlook Fed Talk webinar.

Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, will analyze incoming economic indicators and walk through the US economic outlook for 2026. The session will offer valuable insights for professionals, academics, business leaders, and others interested in economic trends and policy.

Various economic indicators critical for understanding the health and direction of the economy will be covered:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The broadest measure of economic activity at the national level.
• Inflation Rates: Analysis of current inflation trends, the factors driving them, and their implications.
• Labor Market Indicators: Employment growth, the unemployment rate, wage growth, and other measures that capture the health of the labor market.
• Consumer Spending: Data related to the health of the US consumer, whose spending powers most of the overall economy.
• Business Spending: AI-related investments are raising capital spending, but that's just one part of the story.
• And more.

The Fed Talk program is the Cleveland Fed's speaker series illuminating an array of issues related to the economy. Each session features economists and experts discussing subjects such as inflation, workforce trends, banking, and community development. Attendees can enhance their understanding of economic issues and trends. Interactive Q&A sessions allow participants to ask questions and engage directly with speakers.

• Ed Knotek, senior vice president and director of research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Julianne Dunn, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Cincinnati Branch

The regional analysis group at the Cleveland Fed monitors the economy across the Fourth Federal Reserve District, which includes Ohio, eastern Kentucky, western Pennsylvania, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. One important tool the group uses to keep tabs on economic developments across this region is the Business Outlook and Trends Survey (BOTS).

Join us for a conversation about the BOTS and the key role it plays in illuminating economic trends across the Fourth District.

The BOTS is distributed by partner organizations twice a year and gathers data from a diverse range of businesses in the Fourth District on topics such as

• Labor markets
• Prices
• Demand for regional goods and services

The data collected through the BOTS potentially provide insights into economic changes before they show up in published data, helping businesses understand why and how trends may be occurring. The survey also informs the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, ensuring that the unique needs and conditions of the Fourth District are considered in the broader context of national economic policy.

Speakers will take audience questions following the presentation.

• Julianne Dunn, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Cincinnati Branch
• Brooke Dirtzu, economic analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Carol Moseley, research analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Brandon Mendoza, president and CEO, Erie Regional Chamber and Growth Partnership

• Russell Mills, regional executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Pittsburgh Branch

In today's economic landscape, understanding the importance of inflation expectations is valuable for everyone—from everyday consumers to business owners and policymakers.

Inflation expectations are what people think will happen to prices for goods and services in the future. This Fed Talk aims to demystify this concept.

Expectations about inflation matter because they play a critical role in economic decision-making which, in turn, will influence actual inflation. For example, if consumers expect higher inflation, they may spend more now. If businesses expect higher costs, they may raise prices preemptively. Both actions can contribute to higher inflation.

Because we cannot directly observe inflation expectations, we use various methods to measure them. These methods include surveys, forecasts, and inflation-related financial instruments.

October’s Fed Talk will highlight the relationship between expected and actual inflation. Our panelists will also be discussing:

• The definition and relationship between the price level, inflation, and inflation expectations
• The importance of inflation expectations for the decisions of consumers and firms
• The factors that influence inflation expectations, such as past inflation rates, economic policies, and global events
• Why central banks are interested in inflation expectations and how central banks can influence these expectations
• The importance of “well-anchored” inflation expectations
• Measuring inflation expectations as well as the interpretation and limitations of these measures
• A closer look at measures of inflation expectations developed and maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Speakers will include economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research. The Center is a leading resource to better understand all aspects of inflation through the availability of research, indicators, and educational tools.

Following the presentation, speakers will take questions from the audience.

• Damjan Pfajfar, Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Robert Rich, Senior Economic and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Chuck Soder, Senior Media Relations Specialist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Reserve Banks play a pivotal role in the US financial system. The Cleveland Fed touches everyone in the Fourth District by

• Working with community and business partners to understand the economic landscape
• Supervising financial institutions
• Playing a vital role in the nation's payments system

In her first year, President Hammack has engaged with local community and business leaders in the Bank's Fourth Federal Reserve District, comprising Ohio and parts of Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. She then brings their insights into how the economy is working for their communities to the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting in Washington DC.

There are 12 Reserve Banks across the country. Each serves a specific region, and all Reserve Banks operate under the umbrella of the Federal Reserve System.

The primary functions of the Federal Reserve concern

• Monetary policy: Setting US monetary policy to promote maximum employment and stable prices in the US economy. The aim is to protect your standard of living.
• Supervision and regulation: Promoting the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitoring their impact on the financial system. As a result, you can be confident the bank you choose is operating in a safe and sound manner.
• Payments systems: Promoting a safe, efficient, and accessible system for US dollar transactions. This includes circulation of paper currency and coin. It also ensures the safe transport of transferred money and electronic bill payments from point A to point B.
• Financial stability: Monitoring financial system risks. This helps ensure a strong economy for US households, communities, and businesses, even in uncertain times.
• Consumers and communities: Advancing supervision and economic research. This improves understanding of the impacts of financial services policies on consumers and communities and helps facilitate access to economic opportunity for all.

This session will enhance your understanding of the Federal Reserve and its impact on the economy and our communities. Join us for an engaging and informative discussion.

President Hammack will answer questions during the question-and-answer portion of the event. Attendees can also submit questions in advance through the registration form.

• Beth Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Lila Mills, Editor-in-Chief, Signal Cleveland

The production of semiconductors, including microchips which are used in a wide variety of electronic applications such as phones and computers, is growing in the United States. Major investments have been made in states like Ohio, Arizona, Texas, New York and Oregon. One expert will present findings from case studies about how local partners from private industry, education and nonprofits in these places have come together to both boost productivity for employers and create promising career pathways for workers, particularly workers without a college degree.

The panel will then share their perspectives on the unique challenges and opportunities in Ohio, including what’s going well and where they see room for future innovation and growth. Specifically, they will discuss the role of community colleges in developing workforce and training programs that are not tethered to one employer or one industry but designed to give workers transferable skills that can be used across multiple career pathways. What are some of the challenges unique to this state versus others? Where are there successes and where do challenges remain?

Panelists will discuss:

• The promise of the semiconductor industry, and related industries
• The dynamism of these industries and their changing needs
• What we know about effective models of cross-sector workforce partnerships both locally and nationally.

The presentation and panel discussion will be followed by Q&A.

• Lavea Brachman, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution and Visiting Fellow, University College London
• Abbi Failla, Vice President, Business Operations, EASE Logistics
• Scott McLemore, Member, Executive Board, Governor’s Office of Workforce Transformation and Executive in Residence, Columbus State Community College

• Khaz Finley, Outreach Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Supplying financial services is a core function of the Federal Reserve System. As a part of that work, the Federal Reserve operates 28 cash processing locations in the United States to distribute cash both within the United States and around the world. Our Cash Department is responsible for receiving currency from our financial institutions, validating the authenticity, and ensuring that all institutions have ready access to cash. In the Fourth District, we receive, process, and pay out cash at both our Cleveland and Cincinnati locations.

In this Fed Talk, our speakers will discuss

• Cash 101
  • An overview of the cash services Federal Reserve System landscape
  • An overview of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's circulation cycle and process
  • Resources and educational information
• Our Money Today
  • An overview of consumer payments and cash use
  • Connect our current cash trends with the future of cash

• Brian Williams, Senior Vice President of Operations, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Brad Smith, Assistant Vice President of Cleveland Cash Services, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Cyndi King, Assistant Vice President of Cincinnati Cash Services, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Kristin Hamblin, Program Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Jimmie Gray, Assistant Vice President of Cash Services Support, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Financial literacy is important for success in any career. It gives people the knowledge, skills, and tools to make informed decisions. However, it is often a missing topic in conversations that prepare people to enter the workforce.

Our panelists will discuss how current and future participants in the labor force can gain and use financial literacy. These financial skills will help them to navigate career decisions. Those who better understand finances are more equipped, for example, to address and consider the topics of compensation, benefits, retirement packages, and more as they pursue careers.

Join us for a conversation about how educational, community outreach, workforce development, and other organizations can incorporate the "missing piece" of financial literacy into career conversations with people entering the workforce. We will discuss the importance of learning about personal finance concepts, such as

• budgeting
• saving
• investing

Panelists will share strategies to increase the career readiness of workforce participants through access to financial literacy. They will take your questions following the presentation.

• Khaz Finley, Education Outreach Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Jacqueline Gamblin, CEO of JYG Innovations and Class B Director, Board of Directors, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Joel Philistin, Director, Financial Wellness Center, University of Pittsburgh
• Emily Turner, Director, Choose Ohio First, Ohio Department of Higher Education

• Davonta Milbry, Education Outreach Coordinator, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

At the Cleveland Fed, we monitor emerging trends by surveying regional business and community leaders about economic conditions in our region. Through these surveys, the businesses share the economic conditions that they face. This can provide insights in advance of other published macroeconomic indicators.

Every six weeks, our regional experts collect and analyze insights from surveys completed by business and community leaders around the Fourth District. The Fourth District is the region served by the Cleveland Fed. It includes Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky.

Through the Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) indexes, we are now sharing quantitative survey results with the public. The SORCE indexes serve as timely indicators of economic activity in the Fourth District. These indexes supplement the Beige Book, which provides a summary of reports from Fourth District firms on economic conditions.

In this Fed Talk, our speakers will discuss:

• The new SORCE indexes and how businesses can use these data
• How the Cleveland Fed interacts with businesses in our region
• How we collect economic data by surveying regional businesses
• The ways we use these survey data to inform ourselves and the public about economic trends
• How businesses can get involved and respond to the survey

• Russell Mills, Regional Executive, Pittsburgh Branch, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Brooke Dirtzu, Economic Analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Jayme Gerring, Research Analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

• Stephan Whitaker, Senior Policy Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland