Something has changed in China. Something big. Bank lending dropped sharply, more than it has. Fixed investment suddenly crashed. Retail sales contracted in a way China hasn't experienced since 2022's lockdowns. The usual economic and financial decay has been taken up a notch, if not two. So, naturally, Chinese stocks are soaring, one final negative signal. Yes, negative.

Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis

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https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There were several key points from Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole which everyone seems to have missed. The market picked up on them, however, with SOFR futures reacting by pushing its inversion deeper and further out, now early 2027. What Chair Powell meant under everything he said was he finally gets the big Beveridge risk.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdf

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.

Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.

Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Jay Powell vs. Ronald McDonald? The FOMC yesterday published the minutes of its July meeting which showed a majority of officials believe inflation is the country's greatest threat. So, it was a huge shock when the world's biggest fast-food joint reported - ON THE SAME DAY - it was doing the opposite. Even the FOMC "majority" isn't as solid as it is made to appear, as the minutes also contained one observation that really does align with these real economy facts.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.

Check it out here here: monetary-metals.com/snider
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FOMC Minutes for July 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250730.pdf

Fox Business McDonald's to slash combo meal prices to win back budget-conscious shoppers
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/mcdonalds-slash-combo-meal-prices-win-back-budget-conscious-shoppers

CNN McDonald’s is cutting prices of its combo meals to convince customers it’s affordable again
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/20/food/mcdonalds-combo-lower-prices

Bloomberg Fed Chair Contender Bullard Backs 100 Basis Points of 2025 Cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/fed-chair-contender-bullard-backs-100-basis-points-of-2025-cuts

Bloomberg US Stocks Extend Slide as Walmart Misses, Jobless Claims Rise
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/us-equity-futures-fall-as-walmart-misses-jobless-claims-rise

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.
All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/.

Target suffered another quarterly drop in sales. And the reason why was given by the CEO of Home Depot commenting on his own company's struggles. Laying down some truth, for once, these big retailers are adding more color and confirmation to why the market keeps betting more forcefully for the September Fed 50.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.

Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.

Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership
You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/

Corporate credit is filled with what appear to be contradictions, with some spread categories tumbling to their lowest levels since the late nineties. Yet, delinquencies and risks are rising and doing so in a way everyone is recognizing. So, why the complacency? It's a combination of several critical - perhaps killer - factors that tie in to commercial real estate. We have some related updates on that are, too.

Eurodollar University's Money and Macro Analysis

Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Spreads Sink to 27-Year Low as ‘FOMO’ Sets In
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-15/us-corporate-bond-spreads-sink-to-27-year-low-as-fomo-sets-in

I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.
All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/

It's gotten so bad that serious Wall Street commentators are openly talking about yield curve control for Treasuries - just like they did four years ago. Yet, YCC never happened for the same reason it won't happen today. While the same people calling for the Fed to buy bonds in order to stabilize interest rates say this is needed because foreigners are ditching USTs and the dollar, the latest data shows the opposite is happening. Again.

This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.

Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.

Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.
All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out!

Last month was Amazon Prime "Day" - now four - and after it was over the whole thing just disappeared down a memory hole. Why? Ask the boxes. What box-makers are reporting is getting to be disturbing. No wonder with the latest on consumer sentiment, consumer goods production, and consumer spending hanging by a tariff-distorted thread.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Amazon Prime
https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/retail/prime-day-2025-recap

Retail Dive Amazon once again touts ‘record’ Prime Day sales
https://www.retaildive.com/news/amazon-prime-day-2025-record-sales/753034/

Bloomberg What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/cardboard-box-sales-fall-in-worrying-sign-for-us-retail

UofM August 2025 Consumer Sentiment
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.

Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.

Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

With Monetary Metals, you don’t just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownership
You can learn more here http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/

HSBC reported shocking results regarding its Hong Kong real estate loans further establishing the proportions of the credit crisis underway there. The news was, however, in line with recent developments in the city, among its banks, and with their Chinese counterparts. The reason was simple enough: all of them are suffering from the same fatal flow which the world, not just SE Asia, is in the middle of paying for.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Reuters HSBC profit tumbles as China losses mount
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hsbc-profit-tumbles-china-losses-mount-2025-07-30/

Guardian
https://slguardian.org/hsbc-flags-73-of-hong-kong-commercial-property-loans-as-risky-amid-market-slump/

Bloomberg Hong Kong’s Economy Has Two Gravity-Defying Puzzles
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-11/hong-kong-interest-rates-and-housing-market-are-puzzles

Bloomberg Hong Kong Property Woes Persist Despite Banks’ Vote of Confidence
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-07-01/hong-kong-property-woes-persist-despite-banks-vote-of-confidence

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://youtu.be/gY3Wge-v1sI