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Like last month, this June payroll report was taken one way in the mainstream while the details went entirely in the other direction. Headline was a beat and the unemployment rate stalled. Yet, the former was ironically a product of government jobs while the latter slid a tiny amount for ALL THE WRONG REASONS.

Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending.

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

AI shouldn't provoke fear and anxiety, it should raise expectations for regular 4-day workweek with 3-day weekends. Artificial Intelligence represents a potential major leap in labor productivity. The end result isn't a desolate hellscape which leaves everyone unemployed, it's instead something economics (small "e") is very familiar with.

webinar link https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps

Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
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It never was entirely tariff distortions. Everyone had tried to dismiss Q1 as an anomaly. Later revisions have instead shown there is indeed a shift happening among US consumers. Even Winnebago agrees and RVs are the canary for the canary in the macro coalmine. Beveridge is getting closer.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Slash Services Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/us-gdp-revised-lower-as-consumers-slash-recreation-spending

Winnebago
https://winnebago.gcs-web.com/static-files/e0acc2ce-9a34-456d-8f68-a8235351493a

WSJ Winnebago Cuts Guidance as Soft Demand Hurts RV Retail Sales
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/winnebago-cuts-revenue-profit-outlook-after-declines-0b3a9053

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The housing market keeps spitting out alarming signs of a growing bust. Sales are down huge, prices are actually falling - and that's the government's estimates. Most of all, this is directly connected to the economy and especially jobs.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Bloomberg Bond Traders Boost Bets US 10-Year Yield Will Dive Toward 4%
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/bond-traders-boost-bets-that-us-10-year-yield-to-dive-toward-4

Bloomberg US New-Home Sales Drop by Most Since 2022 on Poor Affordability
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-25/us-new-home-sales-drop-to-seven-month-low-on-poor-affordability

Conference Board
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-consumer-confidence-deteriorates-june-2025-06-24/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Swiss francs are soaring again. This isn't a "sell America" trade (which doesn't exist), or the crashing dollar (also doesn't exist). The monetary system remains on edge and now we know why. The shocking full story of what really happened in April and how close we were to the shadow's edge.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU