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It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Walmart Q1 earnings
https://corporate.walmart.com/content/dam/corporate/documents/newsroom/2025/05/15/walmart-releases-q1-fy26-earnings/q1-fy26-earnings-release.pdf

CNN Walmart warns it will raise prices because of tariffs
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/business/walmart-prices-tariffs

CNBC Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earnings
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.html

Bloomberg US Retail Sales Barely Rise, Suggesting Some Spending Pullback
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-retail-sales-barely-rise-suggesting-some-spending-pullback

Bloomberg US Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly in April as Margins Shrank
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-producer-prices-fall-unexpectedly-as-margins-decline

Reuters US manufacturing output falls in April on weak auto production
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-manufacturing-output-falls-april-weak-auto-production-2025-05-15/

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Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problem

Rueters China's property 'whitelist' lifeline stutters amid sector gloom
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-whitelist-lifeline-stutters-amid-sector-gloom-2024-05-14/

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Microsoft announced another round of layoffs. Coming from a company that isn't struggling nearly as much as most, it's an ominous sign. The April CPI shows why and not just for Microsoft. It instead aligns with the biggest problem in the economy, and that's not inflation which was absent from the report despite the start of tariffs. A surprise to Economists, but not to BED.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Microsoft laying off about 6,000 people, or 3% of its workforce
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/microsoft-is-cutting-3percent-of-workers-across-the-software-company.html

Bloomberg Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Points to Muted Tariff Fallout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/us-inflation-comes-in-softer-than-forecast-for-another-month

BLS BED/BDM
https://www.bls.gov/bdm/bdmover.htm

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