This episode delivers an in-depth look at the global nuts market.

• Global cashew production is projected to grow by 3 percent in the current season, reaching 5.53 million metric tons. The Northern Hemisphere is expected to contribute 4.57 million tons (a 2 percent increase), while the Southern Hemisphere will add 901,000 tons (a 7 percent increase). Tanzania stands out with a forecasted 17 percent jump in output to 700,000 tons, exceeding expectations set by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council.
• Increased cashew output is also evident in Cambodia, India, Cote D'Ivoire, and Nigeria, with respective gains of 6.3 percent, 17.9 percent, 4.2 percent, and 6.4 percent. This growth is driven largely by robust demand from China, the European Union, and the Middle East. The EU has notably increased its procurement of African cashew kernels. Conversely, Vietnam, Ghana, and Togo are experiencing production declines of 11.8 percent, 18.2 percent, and 33.3 percent respectively. The U.S. market is seeing weaker demand due to elevated costs and tariffs, prompting Vietnam to shift its export focus to China.
• India's domestic processing market continues to expand, with cashew processing demand expected to reach 4 million metric tons by 2045. Price variations among cashew types are notable, reflecting shifting global preferences and market segmentation. Meanwhile, Vietnam has signed a new cultivation agreement with Cuba, covering cashew and short-cycle crops on 2,000 hectares, strengthening bilateral trade and agricultural investment ties.
• In Goa, the cashew feni industry is leveraging geographical indication tags to protect and enhance its market position amid challenges such as aging orchards, climate variability, and import competition. Vietnam’s cashew export volume has increased 4 percent, while export value surged 19.5 percent in the first eleven months of 2025, fueled by a 14.9 percent rise in average export prices. Exports to China and The Netherlands have grown, but shipments to the United States have declined.
• Separately, Iran has achieved EU certification for its pistachios, boosting its credibility and competitiveness in European markets. With annual pistachio exports totaling 100,000 tons, this certification is expected to strengthen Iran’s role as a leading supplier in the region.

This episode highlights key trends and developments across the global nuts market.

• In Kosven Province, authorities intercepted approximately 20 tons of smuggled pistachios en route to European markets. The operation, linked to organized trade networks, uncovered significant economic implications, with the pistachios valued at an estimated BRL192 billion. Authorities are urging public vigilance to curb commodity smuggling and protect economic stability.
• In Canada, health officials issued a national alert regarding potential salmonella contamination in Iranian pistachios and related products. Consumers are advised to check product origins and adhere to food safety guidelines due to the long shelf life of pistachios. The advisory underscores the importance of sustained caution and regulatory oversight in international nut trade.
• Chile has seen notable growth in walnut exports between March and October 2025. In-shell walnut shipments rose by 29%, and shelled walnut exports jumped 35% year-over-year in October. Although exports to India declined by 11%, demand surged in the Middle East and Africa, with European imports up 33%. Particularly, demand for shelled walnuts in Europe increased by 54%, led by the Netherlands and Germany. In contrast, exports to Spain and broader American regions declined, indicating evolving regional preferences and market realignments.

This week’s report on the global nuts market.

• Vietnam's cashew sector continues to expand, driven by robust demand from China, the United States, and India. Between January and late 2025, Chinese imports of Vietnamese cashew kernels rose 37.4 percent in volume and 54.1 percent in value, setting Vietnam on course to exceed $5 billion in exports by year-end. However, increased reliance on African raw cashew imports, which have reached a three-year high, is pressuring processors’ profit margins due to elevated input costs. Some processors are halting operations under financial strain.
• In Iran, pistachio production in regions such as Zurandieh, Markazi, has plummeted by 50 percent this year, driven by unfavorable weather and persistent export sanctions. The resulting decline in both quality and export potential has sparked calls for government support and investment in agricultural technologies. Further compounding the issue, Canada has issued a large recall of Iranian pistachios due to salmonella contamination, affecting over 130 products and prompting stricter import safety protocols.
• India's nut imports, including almonds, walnuts, and pistachios, are projected to rise by 7 percent, spurred by growing health awareness and a large consumer base. Almond demand remains particularly steady. Meanwhile, Turkey's hazelnut output is forecast to drop by 36 percent in the 2025–2026 season due to adverse weather, adding strain to global supply. In contrast, Chile and the United States are expected to increase nut production, contributing to a shifting global trade landscape and influencing pricing structures across the sector.

This episode provides a comprehensive overview of recent trends in the global walnut market.

• In October 2025, U.S. walnut shipments rose significantly to £158 million, an 8.94 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024. This growth was primarily fueled by a surge in export demand, which reached £120 million, while domestic shipments saw a modest 2 percent rise to £38 million. Since the start of the season, total shipments have reached £421 million, up 10 percent from the previous year.
• The European market remained a key importer with a 5 percent volume increase to £102 million, while Middle East imports declined slightly by 0.7 percent to £3 million. By the end of October, sales commitments climbed to £467 million, an 11 percent year-over-year increase, supported by a 15 percent monthly rise in new sales.
• Crop receipts for October stood at 1.123 billion pounds, reflecting a stable harvest trend compared to the previous year's £1 billion. Market sentiment remains positive, driven by robust export growth and successful penetration into new markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where demand from countries like Thailand has strengthened.
• Despite this optimism, stakeholders are monitoring potential risks, including geopolitical tensions and input cost volatility that could affect pricing strategies. U.S. walnut exports are making notable inroads into emerging markets, offsetting slowdowns in traditional regions. Continued focus on these new opportunities is seen as essential for sustaining global competitiveness.
• Overall, the walnut market presents a narrative of strong export-driven expansion with cautious strategic planning to manage supply chain and logistic challenges.

This episode presents a detailed snapshot of the global nuts market as of November 16, 2025.

• From January to August 2025, Azerbaijan's cashew imports surged by 28 percent in volume and 57 percent in value, totaling 282 tons worth $2.3 million. Vietnam dominated supply, contributing 229 tons valued at $1.9 million, while India’s exports to Azerbaijan declined by 44 percent in value. New trade links with Benin and Ghana have emerged, marking a significant shift after 14 years of absence from Azerbaijan’s supplier list.
• Vietnam, a top global cashew kernel exporter, continues to face operational pressures. Despite importing nearly $4 billion worth of raw cashews—much from Cambodia—to manage raw material costs, rising input prices and a shift in processing activity toward Africa threaten efficiency and raise the risk of operational losses and factory closures without strategic adjustments.
• In Ghana, the cashew sector shows strong growth potential, with revenue projections exceeding $660 million annually through enhanced regulation and infrastructure. The Tree Crops Development Authority is working to stabilize prices, increase local processing, and reduce raw exports, currently valued at about $300 million, with an ambition to match regional leaders like Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria.
• Tanzania is poised for a record cashew harvest of 700,000 tons, up from 528,000 tons the previous year. Over 45 companies will engage in transparent, quality-assured online auctions. Most of Tanzania’s raw cashews are exported for processing in Vietnam and India, forming a vital part of the country's agricultural exports.
• In Iran, Kermanshah province expects a 2025 pistachio yield of around 250 tons. The region is expanding cultivation, focusing on water-efficient varieties such as Akhburi and Ahmad Agay, aligning with sustainability goals and regional development plans.
• Kenya has announced a temporary halt to macadamia trading from December 1, 2025, to February 15, 2026, aiming to protect crop maturity and uphold export quality. Meanwhile, Georgia’s hazelnut sector is under threat from pests and disease, potentially losing up to 30 percent of the crop. Investment in research and pest control is critical to preserving industry viability.

This episode offers a detailed look at the global nuts market as of November 9, 2025.

• In Nigeria, Kogi State is pursuing a bold plan to raise cashew production to 150,000 metric tons by 2027. This effort is led by the state’s Commodity Exchange Export Promotion and Marketing Development Agency (COSIPA) and includes the replacement of old trees with 15 million hybrid cashew trees over three years. These hybrids are known for high kernel recovery and will be sun-dried locally to meet international quality standards. The program includes financial support, training, and market access for farmers, with the goal of boosting employment and export revenue. Additionally, talks with Vietnamese investors are underway to establish processing facilities in Kogi, opening direct export channels to markets such as the United States, Germany, Japan, and the UAE.
• Ghana’s cashew sector also shows high potential, with the capacity to contribute over $660 million annually to the national economy if regulatory and processing improvements are implemented. The sector supports around 500,000 jobs but currently faces issues including under-regulation, price instability, and limited value-added processing. The Tree Crops Development Authority is addressing these gaps through new licensing systems and infrastructure expansion.
• Vietnam remains a global leader in cashew processing, importing over $4 billion worth of raw nuts in the first ten months of 2024. The country sources up to 90% of its supply from countries like Cambodia and several West African nations. Despite rising input costs that are squeezing margins, Vietnam is working to strengthen its national cashew brand by promoting domestic cultivation and adopting more advanced processing techniques.
• A recent memorandum of understanding between Nigeria and Vietnam reflects a significant step in bilateral cooperation. The agreement focuses on technology transfer and deeper trade integration, aligning Nigeria’s raw output with Vietnam’s processing strengths to benefit both economies. Meanwhile, global supply disruptions, particularly in Tanzania, are straining availability and driving prices higher. Political instability in the region has disrupted exports, creating challenges for major processors in India and Vietnam, who are now paying premiums to source from more stable suppliers like Cambodia.

Overview:
In this episode, we examine the cashew sector in Côte d’Ivoire, a country that has emerged as the world’s largest producer of raw cashew nuts. Despite its production dominance, Ivory Coast struggles to scale local processing—a structural gap that threatens both national revenue growth and broader economic resilience. This episode offers a case study in value-chain imbalance, policy challenges, and global commodity dynamics.

Key Discussion Themes:

• Rapid Growth in Raw Cashew Production
  • Côte d’Ivoire's cashew output has tripled since 2011, reaching 1.2 million metric tons by 2023
  • Cashews have become the country's second-largest agricultural export after cocoa
  • The industry supports over 250,000 smallholder farmers, primarily in the north
• The Value-Addition Gap
  • Despite increased production, less than 10% of cashews were processed locally as of early 2020s
  • Government goals aimed to raise local processing to 50% by 2025 through subsidies, tax incentives, and infrastructure investment
• Two-Phase Industry Crisis (2020–2023)
  • Phase 1: Global buyers from Asia outbid local processors, acquiring over 80% of raw output
  • Phase 2: A downturn in global demand led to falling prices, market oversupply, and factory shutdowns
  • Result: At least eight major local processors went bankrupt, with thousands of job losses
• Structural and Competitive Disadvantages
  • Local processors face financing constraints, higher operational costs, and raw material shortages
  • Competing with well-capitalized, efficient processors in Vietnam and India remains a major hurdle
  • Government subsidies and support have not closed the competitive gap
• Socioeconomic Impact
  • Sharp job losses, especially affecting low-income workers in northern regions
  • Farmers face price instability and market exclusion
  • Declining tax revenues and missed industrial development opportunities for the state
• Global Market Dynamics
  • Raw cashew exports continue to flow heavily toward Asia for processing
  • Vietnam remains the dominant global processor, capturing the bulk of value-added exports
  • The current imbalance entrenches Africa’s role as a raw supplier in global agri-trade
• Forward-Looking Strategies and Policy Considerations
  • Urgent need for sustainable processing infrastructure and supply chain integration in Côte d’Ivoire
  • Potential for foreign direct investment, fairer trade terms, and international development support
  • Consideration of broader trade reforms, export credit guarantees, and consumer-driven sourcing changes

Overview:
In this episode, we examine the global cashew supply chain as a case study in supply chain vulnerability, rising commodity risk, and international market exposure. What begins as a casual observation about a common snack quickly evolves into a comprehensive analysis of the intersecting forces—geopolitical, logistical, climatic, and contractual—impacting this $7B+ industry.

Key Discussion Points:

• Cashew Ubiquity and Market Relevance
  • Cashews as a high-demand input in snacks, dairy alternatives, and culinary products
  • Expanding use across food sectors from plant-based milks to premium processed goods
• Geopolitical Pressures on Freight & Trade Routes
  • Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Gaza crisis on maritime logistics
  • Rerouting of vessels away from the Suez Canal, increasing lead times and costs
• Logistical Bottlenecks and Infrastructure Deficiencies
  • Chronic congestion at Nigerian and Vietnamese ports
  • Persistent global container shortages and port inefficiencies post-COVID
• Volatile Contract Enforcement and Supply Reliability
  • Increasing breach of raw nut contracts in West Africa due to price volatility
  • Financial implications for processors reliant on just-in-time supply models
• Climate Variability and Agricultural Impact
  • Erratic weather patterns reducing yield quality and timing in key producing regions
  • Compound risks posed by nature in already stressed global systems
• Market Implications and Retail Consequences
  • Rising input costs and product shortages affecting downstream availability
  • Potential long-term consumer substitution toward more stable alternatives
• Strategic Responses from Industry Stakeholders
  • Vietnam’s efforts in supply diversification, backward integration, and contract enforcement
  • African nations’ push for local processing amid regulatory reform
  • Investment in resilient infrastructure and supply chain transparency
• Broader Implications for Global Agri-Trade
  • Lessons for other crops with similarly fragile value chains
  • Why cashews are a microcosm of larger global economic vulnerabilities

Conclusion: