This episode delivers an in-depth look at the global nuts market.

• Global cashew production is projected to grow by 3 percent in the current season, reaching 5.53 million metric tons. The Northern Hemisphere is expected to contribute 4.57 million tons (a 2 percent increase), while the Southern Hemisphere will add 901,000 tons (a 7 percent increase). Tanzania stands out with a forecasted 17 percent jump in output to 700,000 tons, exceeding expectations set by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council.
• Increased cashew output is also evident in Cambodia, India, Cote D'Ivoire, and Nigeria, with respective gains of 6.3 percent, 17.9 percent, 4.2 percent, and 6.4 percent. This growth is driven largely by robust demand from China, the European Union, and the Middle East. The EU has notably increased its procurement of African cashew kernels. Conversely, Vietnam, Ghana, and Togo are experiencing production declines of 11.8 percent, 18.2 percent, and 33.3 percent respectively. The U.S. market is seeing weaker demand due to elevated costs and tariffs, prompting Vietnam to shift its export focus to China.
• India's domestic processing market continues to expand, with cashew processing demand expected to reach 4 million metric tons by 2045. Price variations among cashew types are notable, reflecting shifting global preferences and market segmentation. Meanwhile, Vietnam has signed a new cultivation agreement with Cuba, covering cashew and short-cycle crops on 2,000 hectares, strengthening bilateral trade and agricultural investment ties.
• In Goa, the cashew feni industry is leveraging geographical indication tags to protect and enhance its market position amid challenges such as aging orchards, climate variability, and import competition. Vietnam’s cashew export volume has increased 4 percent, while export value surged 19.5 percent in the first eleven months of 2025, fueled by a 14.9 percent rise in average export prices. Exports to China and The Netherlands have grown, but shipments to the United States have declined.
• Separately, Iran has achieved EU certification for its pistachios, boosting its credibility and competitiveness in European markets. With annual pistachio exports totaling 100,000 tons, this certification is expected to strengthen Iran’s role as a leading supplier in the region.

This episode highlights key trends and developments across the global nuts market.

• In Kosven Province, authorities intercepted approximately 20 tons of smuggled pistachios en route to European markets. The operation, linked to organized trade networks, uncovered significant economic implications, with the pistachios valued at an estimated BRL192 billion. Authorities are urging public vigilance to curb commodity smuggling and protect economic stability.
• In Canada, health officials issued a national alert regarding potential salmonella contamination in Iranian pistachios and related products. Consumers are advised to check product origins and adhere to food safety guidelines due to the long shelf life of pistachios. The advisory underscores the importance of sustained caution and regulatory oversight in international nut trade.
• Chile has seen notable growth in walnut exports between March and October 2025. In-shell walnut shipments rose by 29%, and shelled walnut exports jumped 35% year-over-year in October. Although exports to India declined by 11%, demand surged in the Middle East and Africa, with European imports up 33%. Particularly, demand for shelled walnuts in Europe increased by 54%, led by the Netherlands and Germany. In contrast, exports to Spain and broader American regions declined, indicating evolving regional preferences and market realignments.

This week’s report on the global nuts market.

• Vietnam's cashew sector continues to expand, driven by robust demand from China, the United States, and India. Between January and late 2025, Chinese imports of Vietnamese cashew kernels rose 37.4 percent in volume and 54.1 percent in value, setting Vietnam on course to exceed $5 billion in exports by year-end. However, increased reliance on African raw cashew imports, which have reached a three-year high, is pressuring processors’ profit margins due to elevated input costs. Some processors are halting operations under financial strain.
• In Iran, pistachio production in regions such as Zurandieh, Markazi, has plummeted by 50 percent this year, driven by unfavorable weather and persistent export sanctions. The resulting decline in both quality and export potential has sparked calls for government support and investment in agricultural technologies. Further compounding the issue, Canada has issued a large recall of Iranian pistachios due to salmonella contamination, affecting over 130 products and prompting stricter import safety protocols.
• India's nut imports, including almonds, walnuts, and pistachios, are projected to rise by 7 percent, spurred by growing health awareness and a large consumer base. Almond demand remains particularly steady. Meanwhile, Turkey's hazelnut output is forecast to drop by 36 percent in the 2025–2026 season due to adverse weather, adding strain to global supply. In contrast, Chile and the United States are expected to increase nut production, contributing to a shifting global trade landscape and influencing pricing structures across the sector.