This episode delivers a comprehensive update on the global wheat market.

• Russia’s wheat export forecast remains unchanged at 44 million tons for the 2025–26 season. Domestically, wheat prices have stabilized despite global pressures, with December export pricing at $227.50 per ton. While cultivated areas have expanded, logistical challenges from non-traditional exporting regions could limit volumes. Ongoing discussions for export deals with Indonesia emphasize Russia’s growing influence in global wheat trade.
• The United States Department of Agriculture has slightly increased its harvest estimate to 87.5 million tons. The European Union continues to contribute significantly to global wheat output, with steady export expectations at 33 million tons. However, a return to typical yield levels is anticipated in 2026 following an exceptionally productive year.
• Ukraine’s wheat exports fell by 19 percent year over year in November, totaling 1.1 million tons. Over the past five months, exports reached 7.3 million tons, a 20 percent drop from the previous marketing year. Key buyers include Egypt, Indonesia (whose imports declined 9 percent), and Algeria. Despite reduced performance, Ukraine's export potential is forecasted to reach 16.7 million tons, slightly above earlier projections.
• Uzbekistan is reforming its subsidy system for wheat and cotton farmers to improve efficiency through data-driven, cost-based allocations. In Saudi Arabia, wheat utilization is projected to reach 4.6 million tons by 2025–26, driven by demographic and economic growth. However, domestic production will cover only a quarter of demand, requiring substantial imports.
• Iran has increased wheat imports to 1.125 million tons from April to October, prompted by declining domestic output. Imports from Russia, the UAE, and Turkey are helping secure food supplies and support the processing sector.
• Canada has raised its wheat production estimates to record levels, contributing to the overall surge in global wheat output. Meanwhile, shifts in export strategies and futures pricing continue to influence international trade patterns.

This episode presents a global overview of the maize market.

• In the United States, corn exports have risen sharply, reaching 3.2 billion bushels due to strong November shipments, with export expectations from September to November projected to surpass 20.32 million tons. Despite the export surge, U.S. ending stocks have dropped by 3.17 million tons to 50.84 million tons, while producer prices remain steady at $4 per bushel.
• Ukraine’s maize sector continues to face disruptions due to abnormal weather patterns, which have reduced both cultivation areas and productivity. These challenges have significantly weakened Ukraine’s production and export capacity, contributing to a tighter global supply. Similarly, Canada has revised its corn production figures downward, compounding global supply concerns. A noted reduction in barley holdings also suggests a likely decline in Canadian grain exports.
• Nigeria is facing a critical maize deficit. With current production at approximately 12 million metric tons—well below the 20 million metric tons required for food security and exports the country is at risk of both price instability and supply shortages. In contrast, Indonesia shows strong growth prospects, with production expected to rise 9 percent to 16.5 million metric tons in 2025, supported by a 20.91 percent increase in harvest areas. However, a forecasted production dip in October 2025 may challenge this upward trend.
• Within the European Union, countries like Spain, Hungary, Romania, and Poland have reported maize production gains, helping offset declines elsewhere in the bloc. This shift is part of a broader trade adjustment, with the EU reducing maize import volumes.
• Japan is increasing maize imports in response to high domestic rice prices, with import volumes projected to reach 15.8 million tons—a six-year high highlighting a move toward more affordable animal feed alternatives.
• Globally, coarse grain production has slightly declined to 1.576 billion tons. The reduction in maize supply from Ukraine has affected trade patterns, with global corn stocks now estimated at 279.2 million tons, down 2.2 million tons from prior projections. Argentina has helped mitigate some of the shortfall with increased holdings, while reductions from Canada and Ukraine remain a concern.

This episode provides a concise overview of recent developments in the global maize market.

• Myanmar continues to play a strategic role in Southeast Asia’s maize trade, exporting approximately 1.2 million tons to Thailand from February to August 2025. Despite the high export volume, domestic prices remained stable due to coordinated stakeholder management. Maize also remains central to Myanmar’s feed industry, which annually consumes between 800,000 and 1 million tons.
• The United States reached a historic production milestone in 2025, harvesting over 425 million metric tons of maize with exceptionally high quality. Accounting for 38.4% of global corn exports, the U.S. solidified its position as the world’s leading maize exporter. In Russia’s Dagestan region, maize production rose by 5%, surpassing regional yield expectations and showcasing the success of localized agricultural practices.
• Brazil’s Western Bahia expanded maize cultivation to 116,000 hectares, aiming for a production target of 1.3 to 1.46 million tons, supported by ideal rainfall. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Vilya region faced harvest delays due to excessive moisture, though drying technologies are being employed to preserve yield quality, reported at 12 tons per hectare.
• In Serbia, food safety concerns surfaced as two maize shipments were rejected in Albania for aflatoxin B1 contamination, underlining the need for strict inspection protocols. India reported a 30% increase in maize production, climbing from 337.3 to 443 lakh metric tons between 2021–22 and 2024–25. This rise is driven by demand from the ethanol sector and pro-biofuel policy initiatives, including the National Policy on Biofuels.

This week’s episode presents a global overview of wheat market.

• Canada reported an 11% year-over-year rise in wheat production, reaching 40 million tons, with spring wheat alone up 10.3% to 29.26 million tons. This growth was driven by favorable end-of-season weather in the prairie regions, offsetting earlier drought conditions. The production boost positions Canada to potentially revise its export strategies and enhance its global market role.
• In the United States, wheat markets exhibited mixed movements. Soft red winter wheat prices saw slight increases due to geopolitical and weather-related concerns. The USDA reported successful export sales of over 500,000 tons by the end of October, offering market optimism. However, Minneapolis spring wheat prices dipped, and Kansas experienced planting delays from unseasonal wet conditions, though these may ultimately benefit crop growth.
• A major development includes a U.S.-Bangladesh export agreement totaling 440,000 tons of wheat at $312.25 per ton. This multi-year procurement framework supports Bangladesh’s efforts to stabilize grain supplies and diversify sourcing amid global trade volatility.
• Russia exported 5.5 million tons of wheat in November, aided by a low export duty of 8.9 rubles per ton. However, challenges remain due to reduced demand from East Africa and competition from other suppliers, which may affect export profitability.
• Argentina achieved a record wheat harvest of 23 million tons, reinforcing its position in the global grain market. While favorable growing conditions supported this increase, Argentina faces economic headwinds and global price volatility, requiring careful market engagement to maximize gains. The country's success in wheat is mirrored by strong corn and soybean yields, emphasizing its broad agricultural export strength.

This week’s wheat market report.

• Argentina’s wheat sector has exceeded expectations for the current harvest cycle, with favorable soil moisture and minimal frost damage contributing to improved yields. With 33.9 percent of the target area already harvested, the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange has raised the production forecast to 25.5 million tons—a 13.8 percent increase over the previous record from the 2021–2022 season. This marks a strong rebound from the poor 2022–2023 crop, reestablishing Argentina as South America's leading wheat producer.
• In Russia, 2026 wheat harvest projections suggest a slight decline to between 85.5 and 88 million tons, down from 2025 levels. This is driven by reduced sown areas, shifts to more profitable crops, and uncertain weather conditions. Forecasts from the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies place the potential output at 86 to 91 million tons. While winter cereal weather predictions remain optimistic, frost risks continue to influence planning and yield expectations.
• Brazil anticipates a 2.6 percent year-over-year drop in wheat production to 7.7 million tons due to unfavorable weather in major growing states. This marks the third straight year of declining yields since the 2022 peak of 10.5 million tons. Brazilian farmers are increasingly favoring other winter crops offering better returns. The country’s wheat shortfall continues to be offset by imports, primarily from Argentina, with local pricing affected by Argentina’s strong output and the strength of the U.S. dollar.
• Globally, the 2025–2026 cycle is poised for a potentially record-setting wheat harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, exerting downward pressure on prices. Russia’s revised export duty policies reflect attempts to stabilize local agriculture amid global market shifts. Meanwhile, Egypt’s growing wheat demand reinforces the crop’s staple status in global trade.

This week’s maize market report.

• The USDA projects U.S. maize yields to remain strong at 186 bushels per acre for 2025, with total production forecast at 425.5 million tons. Despite localized pest pressures in Ohio and Indiana, gains in other states have stabilized the national outlook. U.S. exports are expected to reach 78.1 million tons, supporting ending stock estimates of 54.7 million tons.
• In China, maize output is anticipated to hit a record 300 million tons, surpassing USDA forecasts. Despite high domestic production, reduced import levels are expected to pressure inventories and influence regional trade flows.
• Argentina’s maize exports remain sluggish, creating opportunities for other exporters. However, planting continues without major disruption, even after flooding in Buenos Aires, suggesting a normal harvest timeline into March 2026. Brazil faces headwinds from limited credit access and currency challenges, impacting export competitiveness. While aiming for 41 million tons in maize exports, only 34.1 million tons have been shipped so far. Unfavorable market conditions could affect Brazil's 2026 planting intentions.
• Russia's Primorsky territory plans to expand maize planting to 130,000 hectares by 2026, supported by targeted seed procurement to enhance output. In India’s Karnataka region, declining maize availability has reduced ethanol procurement rates, prompting government intervention to stabilize the sector.
• South Africa expects a 6 percent drop in maize production to 16 million tons, though planted area will remain steady at 3 million hectares. The country aims to export 2.2 million tons while ensuring sufficient regional supply. Ukraine continues to struggle with delayed harvesting due to high moisture content, with a third of the crop still unharvested. Despite slight price increases, Ukraine’s export capacity remains constrained, with projections capped at 5 million tons due to infrastructure damage and ongoing conflict.

This episode covers developments across major wheat-producing regions.

• Ukraine projects a 2025–2026 harvest of 23 million tons, up from 22.6 million last year, with expected exports rising to 17 million tons. The government plans to maintain open export routes, spurred by increased output and slower early-season exports. So far, 6.8 million tons have been shipped, down from 8.6 million the previous year, suggesting a favorable domestic outlook.
• India plans to resume wheat byproduct exports after a three-year pause, potentially shipping up to 1 million tons. Favorable monsoons and strong domestic supply may also lead to lifted export restrictions, enhancing India’s market influence amid ongoing trade talks with the United States.
• Canada exceeded average wheat production with a total of 36.6 million tons in 2025, most of it graded No. 1 or 2. Export targets stand at 27.4 million tons, supported by marketing efforts and quality data for Eastern wheat classes.
• China has completed over 80 percent of its winter wheat sowing, aided by mechanized technologies despite delays from autumn rains. These efforts support crop rotation and long-term food security.
• Nigeria is boosting dry-season wheat production, allocating 40,000 hectares and enrolling 80,000 farmers. Modern practices and certified inputs are key to reducing import dependence.
• Kazakhstan anticipates a strong harvest of 18.9 million tons, a 29 percent rise over the five-year average, reflecting broader agricultural growth. Russia projects 137.1 million tons in total grain output, including 88.2 million tons of wheat, with strong export potential despite setbacks in corn and oilseed sectors.
• Elsewhere, Syria is replenishing reserves after a poor harvest, relying heavily on Russian and Ukrainian imports to maintain food security.

This episode provides a detailed update on global maize production and trade.

• In Russia’s Bryansk region, maize yields have exceeded both last year’s figures and the national average, despite challenging weather conditions. Successful harvest strategies in districts like Komoritsky have contributed to this strong performance.
• In Brazil, summer corn planting has reached 52.6 percent completion as of mid-October, slightly ahead of last year. Planting progress varies by state, with southern regions like Parana and Rio Grande do Sul nearing completion, while Bahia and Goias lag behind. Despite mixed weather impacts, crop development remains strong, with 94 percent of summer corn crops in Perina rated in good condition. Brazil’s corn exports from Mato Grosso do Sul surged 214 percent year over year in October, largely fueled by demand from Asian markets, especially Iran. However, monthly exports dipped from September due to logistical constraints.
• In the United States, the corn harvest reached 91 percent by late November, slightly under the five-year average. Weather-related challenges—rain, frost, and drought—have sparked concerns over lower yields, prompting expectations of revised USDA forecasts. Nonetheless, stable export demand is supporting the market.
• Globally, maize markets are gradually recovering following weather disruptions. According to Reibobank’s Outlook 2026, yield concerns in the United States contrast with Brazil’s steady production, helping stabilize global prices. The next season may see increased U.S. and Argentine exports, while Brazil is expected to divert more corn toward ethanol production. Despite these dynamics, global maize markets remain sensitive to weather variability and rising input costs.