This episode delivers a comprehensive update on the global wheat market.

• Russia’s wheat export forecast remains unchanged at 44 million tons for the 2025–26 season. Domestically, wheat prices have stabilized despite global pressures, with December export pricing at $227.50 per ton. While cultivated areas have expanded, logistical challenges from non-traditional exporting regions could limit volumes. Ongoing discussions for export deals with Indonesia emphasize Russia’s growing influence in global wheat trade.
• The United States Department of Agriculture has slightly increased its harvest estimate to 87.5 million tons. The European Union continues to contribute significantly to global wheat output, with steady export expectations at 33 million tons. However, a return to typical yield levels is anticipated in 2026 following an exceptionally productive year.
• Ukraine’s wheat exports fell by 19 percent year over year in November, totaling 1.1 million tons. Over the past five months, exports reached 7.3 million tons, a 20 percent drop from the previous marketing year. Key buyers include Egypt, Indonesia (whose imports declined 9 percent), and Algeria. Despite reduced performance, Ukraine's export potential is forecasted to reach 16.7 million tons, slightly above earlier projections.
• Uzbekistan is reforming its subsidy system for wheat and cotton farmers to improve efficiency through data-driven, cost-based allocations. In Saudi Arabia, wheat utilization is projected to reach 4.6 million tons by 2025–26, driven by demographic and economic growth. However, domestic production will cover only a quarter of demand, requiring substantial imports.
• Iran has increased wheat imports to 1.125 million tons from April to October, prompted by declining domestic output. Imports from Russia, the UAE, and Turkey are helping secure food supplies and support the processing sector.
• Canada has raised its wheat production estimates to record levels, contributing to the overall surge in global wheat output. Meanwhile, shifts in export strategies and futures pricing continue to influence international trade patterns.

This episode presents a global overview of the maize market.

• In the United States, corn exports have risen sharply, reaching 3.2 billion bushels due to strong November shipments, with export expectations from September to November projected to surpass 20.32 million tons. Despite the export surge, U.S. ending stocks have dropped by 3.17 million tons to 50.84 million tons, while producer prices remain steady at $4 per bushel.
• Ukraine’s maize sector continues to face disruptions due to abnormal weather patterns, which have reduced both cultivation areas and productivity. These challenges have significantly weakened Ukraine’s production and export capacity, contributing to a tighter global supply. Similarly, Canada has revised its corn production figures downward, compounding global supply concerns. A noted reduction in barley holdings also suggests a likely decline in Canadian grain exports.
• Nigeria is facing a critical maize deficit. With current production at approximately 12 million metric tons—well below the 20 million metric tons required for food security and exports the country is at risk of both price instability and supply shortages. In contrast, Indonesia shows strong growth prospects, with production expected to rise 9 percent to 16.5 million metric tons in 2025, supported by a 20.91 percent increase in harvest areas. However, a forecasted production dip in October 2025 may challenge this upward trend.
• Within the European Union, countries like Spain, Hungary, Romania, and Poland have reported maize production gains, helping offset declines elsewhere in the bloc. This shift is part of a broader trade adjustment, with the EU reducing maize import volumes.
• Japan is increasing maize imports in response to high domestic rice prices, with import volumes projected to reach 15.8 million tons—a six-year high highlighting a move toward more affordable animal feed alternatives.
• Globally, coarse grain production has slightly declined to 1.576 billion tons. The reduction in maize supply from Ukraine has affected trade patterns, with global corn stocks now estimated at 279.2 million tons, down 2.2 million tons from prior projections. Argentina has helped mitigate some of the shortfall with increased holdings, while reductions from Canada and Ukraine remain a concern.

This episode provides a concise overview of recent developments in the global maize market.

• Myanmar continues to play a strategic role in Southeast Asia’s maize trade, exporting approximately 1.2 million tons to Thailand from February to August 2025. Despite the high export volume, domestic prices remained stable due to coordinated stakeholder management. Maize also remains central to Myanmar’s feed industry, which annually consumes between 800,000 and 1 million tons.
• The United States reached a historic production milestone in 2025, harvesting over 425 million metric tons of maize with exceptionally high quality. Accounting for 38.4% of global corn exports, the U.S. solidified its position as the world’s leading maize exporter. In Russia’s Dagestan region, maize production rose by 5%, surpassing regional yield expectations and showcasing the success of localized agricultural practices.
• Brazil’s Western Bahia expanded maize cultivation to 116,000 hectares, aiming for a production target of 1.3 to 1.46 million tons, supported by ideal rainfall. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Vilya region faced harvest delays due to excessive moisture, though drying technologies are being employed to preserve yield quality, reported at 12 tons per hectare.
• In Serbia, food safety concerns surfaced as two maize shipments were rejected in Albania for aflatoxin B1 contamination, underlining the need for strict inspection protocols. India reported a 30% increase in maize production, climbing from 337.3 to 443 lakh metric tons between 2021–22 and 2024–25. This rise is driven by demand from the ethanol sector and pro-biofuel policy initiatives, including the National Policy on Biofuels.