This episode highlights current developments and market forecasts in the global coffee sector.

• In Brazil, coffee production forecasts for 2025 show notable upward revisions. Conab increased its estimate by 2.4 percent to 56.54 million bags, while Stonex projects a much larger output of 70.7 million bags, driven by a 29 percent rise in Arabica production, now expected at 47.2 million bags. Despite these gains, Brazil’s November green coffee exports dropped by 27 percent year over year, totaling 3.3 million bags. Severe dryness in key areas like Minas Gerais poses a threat to Arabica crop development and flowering.
• Vietnam’s coffee sector continues its strong performance, with robusta output for 2025–26 revised upward to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking a 6 percent increase and a four-year high. This growth aligns with a 39 percent surge in November exports and a 14.8 percent year-to-date export increase. The rise in supply is exerting downward pressure on global robusta prices.
• Regulatory developments have also influenced market sentiment. The European Union’s decision to delay its deforestation regulation has temporarily eased compliance pressures for South American and Southeast Asian exporters, supporting ongoing supply flows and contributing to a more bearish market outlook.
• On a global scale, the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in total coffee production for 2025–26, reaching 178.68 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9 percent. However, global exports have dipped slightly by 0.3 percent year over year, indicating a disconnect between production growth and trade activity. Currency fluctuations, especially involving the Brazilian real, add further complexity to export incentives and pricing strategies.

This episode covers the latest developments in the global coffee market.

• Vietnam continues to dominate the robusta market, with the 2025 harvest projected at 1.76 million tons, a 10% year-over-year increase and the highest output in four years. Favorable weather conditions supported this growth, and with only 10% of the harvest completed, expectations are high for further supply increases. Coffee exports for the first eleven months rose by 13.4%, reaching $7.88 billion, reinforcing Vietnam’s strong market position and contributing to persistent downward price pressures.
• Brazil presents a mixed outlook. While 2026–27 projections forecast a 29% year-over-year increase in total coffee production to 70.7 million bags, current season estimates have been revised downward to 55.2 million bags due to rainfall deficits in Minas Gerais, potentially affecting arabica cherry and flowering development. Nevertheless, the rollback of U.S. tariffs and the European Union’s delay of its deforestation regulation are expected to improve export competitiveness and market stability.
• Arabica prices remain under limited support. Although tighter inventories and adverse weather in Brazil offered temporary price stabilization, they were insufficient to counterbalance rising supply expectations from both Vietnam and Brazil. The deferral of EU environmental trade regulations also helped maintain robusta flow from Southeast Asia, preventing major disruptions in global supply.
• The broader coffee market continues to experience bearish sentiment, with robust supply forecasts outweighing demand recovery. Regulatory shifts, weather volatility, and evolving export policies remain key factors influencing the current and future landscape of coffee trade.

This week’s coffee market report.

• Brazil is forecast to significantly increase coffee production for the 2026–2027 season, reaching an estimated 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent rise from the previous year. This is largely driven by favorable weather and a projected Arabica yield of 47.2 million bags. However, Brazil’s national supply company has slightly revised its 2025 Arabica forecast downward by 4.9 percent, with total production now expected at 55.2 million bags. The recent lifting of a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee exports could boost trade, although 2025 export volumes have dropped 20.3 percent compared to 2024. Despite this, elevated international prices are helping sustain export value.
• Vietnam’s Robusta sector is also gaining momentum, with a projected 6 percent production increase pushing output to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. While weather has been largely favorable, heavy rains in key areas like Dak Lak have caused harvest delays that could create short-term supply challenges.
• On the global front, coffee markets are sending mixed signals. The temporary postponement of the European Union’s deforestation regulation has eased pressure on exporters, while a slight 0.3 percent dip in global coffee exports signals continued tight supply conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in global coffee production and a nearly 5 percent rise in ending stocks for the 2025–2026 season, suggesting some future supply relief.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Arabica coffee futures have shown price volatility influenced by tariff changes and production forecasts. March 2026 futures reflect a market caught between easing short-term concerns and expectations of higher future output. Technical indicators suggest the market remains volatile but constrained within defined price ranges, requiring careful navigation of both immediate and long-term trends.

This episode covers key shifts in the global coffee market.

• In Brazil, Arabica futures found support amid low inventory levels and a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which caused a 52 percent year-over-year decline in exports to the United States from August to October. This short-term scarcity is supporting speculative price movements. However, Stonex projects Brazil’s 2026–2027 crop will reach 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent increase, fueled by favorable weather in key growing regions like Minas Gerais. This expected supply growth may exert downward pressure on prices moving forward.
• Vietnam’s coffee sector continues to expand, with Robusta exports rising 13.4 percent year to date, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025–2026 season is forecasted to increase by 6 percent, potentially reaching a 10 percent gain with favorable weather, which could ease global supply constraints and further moderate prices.
• In the United States, tariff policy continues to shape market dynamics. While a 10 percent reciprocal tariff on various commodities has been lifted, the 40 percent national security tariff on Brazilian coffee remains in place, restricting imports and influencing futures pricing. A change in this policy could significantly alter trade flows.
• Colombia, by contrast, has benefited from recent tariff changes. The removal of reciprocal tariffs on Colombian coffee has boosted its competitive edge, supporting a three-decade high in output at 14.8 million bags, up 17 percent year over year. This has strengthened Colombia's market share in the United States and globally.
• Despite current inventory tightness, the global coffee market is expected to stabilize. A 2.5 percent rise in overall production for the 2025–2026 season, alongside increasing stock levels, may counterbalance short-term supply limitations and help moderate speculative price volatility.

This episode offers a thorough overview of the global coffee market as of November 16, 2025.

• In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, adverse weather associated with La Niña has led CONAB to revise the 2025 Arabica crop downward by 4.9 percent to 35.2 million bags. Despite this setback, a strong rebound is forecast, with Stonex projecting total output to rise by 29 percent to 70.7 million bags in the next harvest, of which 47.2 million are expected from Arabica varieties. Potential tariff reductions in the United States could influence Brazilian export flows and reshape trade dynamics, particularly since tariffs have previously supported U.S. domestic prices by limiting imports.
• Vietnam is also poised for expansion, with coffee exports growing 13.4 percent year over year from January to October, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Looking ahead, the country’s 2025–2026 output is expected to grow by 6 to 10 percent, contingent on continued favorable conditions. This projected growth in Robusta supply could increase global downward pricing pressure.
• In the United States, the market remains sensitive to regulatory shifts. Speculation about cutting tariffs on Brazilian coffee has drawn attention, as U.S. supply chains rely heavily on Brazil. Any tariff changes would significantly affect pricing and inventory strategies, especially with ongoing constraints in Brazilian exports already impacting stock levels.
• Globally, coffee production is projected to reach a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025–2026 cycle, driven by increased Robusta production in both Brazil and Vietnam. While Arabica output is expected to dip slightly, overall supply will rise. However, this outlook faces risks from climate volatility tied to La Niña and from trade uncertainties in major markets such as the United States, which could disrupt pricing stability and export strategies.

This episode outlines key developments in the global coffee market as of November 9, 2025.

• Brazil’s Arabica coffee output faces mounting pressure due to adverse weather conditions. In Minas Gerais, the top Arabica-producing region, rainfall in October reached only 33.4 millimeters, about 75% of the historical average, following an even drier period earlier in the season. This shortfall threatens the 2026-2027 crop, as insufficient rainfall disrupts flowering and fruit set. The likelihood of a La Niña event, now elevated by NOAA forecasts, could further intensify the dry conditions. As a result, Brazil’s national food supply agency has revised its 2025 Arabica production forecast down to 35.2 million bags from an earlier estimate of 37 million.
• In addition to weather setbacks, Brazil’s coffee exports to the United States have been hit by steep tariffs, contributing to declining inventories in intercontinental exchange warehouses. Speculation around a potential easing of these tariffs could provide some market relief if implemented.
• Vietnam’s Robusta coffee sector is under threat from Typhoon Kalmeghi, which endangers southern production zones. Despite this, exports have risen 10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 million metric tons in 2025. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association projects a 6% increase in 2025-2026 output, potentially reaching 1.76 million metric tons, the highest in four years, assuming no further severe weather disruptions. Vietnam's expanding production continues to influence global Robusta prices.
• Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture anticipates a 2.5% increase in total coffee output for the current cycle, with production reaching a record 178.68 million bags. While Arabica output is expected to decline by 1.7%, Robusta production is forecasted to grow by 7.9%, potentially balancing overall supply. Global ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9%, suggesting a relatively stable supply outlook, contingent on weather and trade policy developments.

This episode examines key developments in the global coffee market.

• In Brazil, Arabica production has declined by 11.2% to 35.2 million bags, while Robusta output surged 37.2% to 20.1 million bags due to improved rainfall. Despite these shifts, total coffee exports fell by 18.4%, although revenues increased by 11.1% driven by higher global prices. A 50% tariff imposed by the United States on specialty coffee has slashed exports in this segment by 70%, pushing producers like Fazenda Komotzium to seek alternative markets. Domestically, coffee consumption dropped 24% following a 70% price hike since 2023, reflecting economic strain and changing consumer behavior. Looking ahead, uncertain rainfall threatens Arabica yields, though Robusta production is expected to remain strong due to improved agricultural practices.
• Vietnam continues its rapid ascent in the coffee sector, with a 61.4% year-on-year rise in export revenues totaling $6.98 billion from 1.23 million tons of mostly Robusta beans. Production forecasts for 2025–2026 have been raised by 10%, and high-value processed coffee exports have jumped 63.5%. The EU remains Vietnam’s primary buyer, accounting for over 63% of its exports. While Vietnam is gaining global prominence, it still faces challenges in quality standardization and establishing internationally recognized brands.
• Globally, the coffee market is grappling with geopolitical disruptions and climate concerns, potentially intensified by La Niña effects. Coffee exports grew marginally by 0.2%, but certified Arabica stocks have dropped to their lowest levels in 18 months. Brazil and Vietnam remain central to global supply stability, even as policy changes and environmental volatility shape market dynamics.
• Colombia is also showing signs of output growth, presenting future export potential. However, trade accessibility remains a concern due to fluctuating international policies.

This week's coffee market report.

• In Brazil, concerns persist over insufficient rainfall in key Arabica-producing regions such as Minas Gerais. Although rain is forecasted, current precipitation levels remain below seasonal norms, raising doubts about optimal flowering and bean development. Concurrently, ongoing trade negotiations with the United States seek to resolve tariff disputes that have negatively impacted Brazilian coffee exports and contributed to reduced shipment volumes and ICE-monitored stock levels.
• Despite a modest year-over-year production increase forecasted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, structural supply issues are keeping the Arabica market tight. In contrast, Vietnam is experiencing strong Robusta production, with a 6% increase projected—marking a four-year high. Favorable weather in regions such as Dok Lakh and the Central Highlands has boosted yields and export volumes, contributing to a bearish market sentiment for Robusta prices.
• This divergence is shaping global market dynamics. The Robusta sector faces downward price pressures from Vietnam’s production surge, while Arabica prices are rising due to persistent deficits and adverse weather conditions. Although global coffee exports remain stable, offering short-term supply relief, the enduring Arabica shortfall continues to weigh on market confidence.