This episode highlights current developments and market forecasts in the global coffee sector.

• In Brazil, coffee production forecasts for 2025 show notable upward revisions. Conab increased its estimate by 2.4 percent to 56.54 million bags, while Stonex projects a much larger output of 70.7 million bags, driven by a 29 percent rise in Arabica production, now expected at 47.2 million bags. Despite these gains, Brazil’s November green coffee exports dropped by 27 percent year over year, totaling 3.3 million bags. Severe dryness in key areas like Minas Gerais poses a threat to Arabica crop development and flowering.
• Vietnam’s coffee sector continues its strong performance, with robusta output for 2025–26 revised upward to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking a 6 percent increase and a four-year high. This growth aligns with a 39 percent surge in November exports and a 14.8 percent year-to-date export increase. The rise in supply is exerting downward pressure on global robusta prices.
• Regulatory developments have also influenced market sentiment. The European Union’s decision to delay its deforestation regulation has temporarily eased compliance pressures for South American and Southeast Asian exporters, supporting ongoing supply flows and contributing to a more bearish market outlook.
• On a global scale, the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in total coffee production for 2025–26, reaching 178.68 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9 percent. However, global exports have dipped slightly by 0.3 percent year over year, indicating a disconnect between production growth and trade activity. Currency fluctuations, especially involving the Brazilian real, add further complexity to export incentives and pricing strategies.

This episode covers the latest developments in the global coffee market.

• Vietnam continues to dominate the robusta market, with the 2025 harvest projected at 1.76 million tons, a 10% year-over-year increase and the highest output in four years. Favorable weather conditions supported this growth, and with only 10% of the harvest completed, expectations are high for further supply increases. Coffee exports for the first eleven months rose by 13.4%, reaching $7.88 billion, reinforcing Vietnam’s strong market position and contributing to persistent downward price pressures.
• Brazil presents a mixed outlook. While 2026–27 projections forecast a 29% year-over-year increase in total coffee production to 70.7 million bags, current season estimates have been revised downward to 55.2 million bags due to rainfall deficits in Minas Gerais, potentially affecting arabica cherry and flowering development. Nevertheless, the rollback of U.S. tariffs and the European Union’s delay of its deforestation regulation are expected to improve export competitiveness and market stability.
• Arabica prices remain under limited support. Although tighter inventories and adverse weather in Brazil offered temporary price stabilization, they were insufficient to counterbalance rising supply expectations from both Vietnam and Brazil. The deferral of EU environmental trade regulations also helped maintain robusta flow from Southeast Asia, preventing major disruptions in global supply.
• The broader coffee market continues to experience bearish sentiment, with robust supply forecasts outweighing demand recovery. Regulatory shifts, weather volatility, and evolving export policies remain key factors influencing the current and future landscape of coffee trade.

This week’s coffee market report.

• Brazil is forecast to significantly increase coffee production for the 2026–2027 season, reaching an estimated 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent rise from the previous year. This is largely driven by favorable weather and a projected Arabica yield of 47.2 million bags. However, Brazil’s national supply company has slightly revised its 2025 Arabica forecast downward by 4.9 percent, with total production now expected at 55.2 million bags. The recent lifting of a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee exports could boost trade, although 2025 export volumes have dropped 20.3 percent compared to 2024. Despite this, elevated international prices are helping sustain export value.
• Vietnam’s Robusta sector is also gaining momentum, with a projected 6 percent production increase pushing output to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. While weather has been largely favorable, heavy rains in key areas like Dak Lak have caused harvest delays that could create short-term supply challenges.
• On the global front, coffee markets are sending mixed signals. The temporary postponement of the European Union’s deforestation regulation has eased pressure on exporters, while a slight 0.3 percent dip in global coffee exports signals continued tight supply conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in global coffee production and a nearly 5 percent rise in ending stocks for the 2025–2026 season, suggesting some future supply relief.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Arabica coffee futures have shown price volatility influenced by tariff changes and production forecasts. March 2026 futures reflect a market caught between easing short-term concerns and expectations of higher future output. Technical indicators suggest the market remains volatile but constrained within defined price ranges, requiring careful navigation of both immediate and long-term trends.