This episode delivers a focused analysis of the global cocoa market.

• In Ivory Coast, despite optimal growing conditions, concerns have emerged due to logistical inefficiencies and labor shortages. These issues have contributed to a 1.8% year-over-year decline in port arrivals, raising questions about harvest timing and distribution capabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for stable or increased yields remains if these barriers are addressed.
• Nigeria's cocoa output forecast for the 2025–26 season has been cut by 11% to 305,000 tons. This revision, driven by poor farming conditions and weak infrastructure, adds to global supply concerns and could support higher prices if the tightening trend persists. Ghana, similarly benefiting from favorable weather, faces comparable logistical hurdles.
• Globally, the cocoa market reflects a mix of bullish and bearish indicators. The International Cocoa Organization has reported a smaller expected surplus, and U.S. inventories have fallen to an 8.75-month low. The recent inclusion of New York cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index may further attract investment, reinforcing price strength. However, weak demand trends are tempering optimism, as grind figures across Asia and Europe fall and North American chocolate sales decline.
• Finally, the European Union's postponed enforcement of its deforestation rule offers short-term supply relief but introduces uncertainty into long-term forecasts. Traders must weigh these diverse signals, with supply limitations and demand softness continuing to drive volatility in the cocoa market.

This episode explores the current state of the global cocoa market.

• Nigeria is projected to see an 11% decline in cocoa production for the 2025–26 season, bringing output down to 305,000 tons. This drop is attributed to ongoing structural challenges in cultivation and logistics. The contraction in Nigerian supply is especially notable given that United States cocoa stocks have reached an eight-month low of 1.685 million bags, further tightening the global supply outlook.
• In the Ivory Coast and Ghana, favorable growing conditions have supported cocoa pod development, yet port arrivals in the Ivory Coast fell 2.1% year-over-year to 718,451 tons. This suggests possible production or logistical issues, tempering expectations of a surplus. While balanced rainfall has aided West African production overall, the corresponding risk of oversupply has placed downward pressure on prices.
• Policy developments are also shaping the market. The European Parliament's delay in implementing the EU deforestation regulation has temporarily eased export pressures for West African producers. Meanwhile, proposed tariff adjustments in the United States on Brazilian cocoa may enhance Brazil’s competitiveness, altering global trade flows and pricing.
• Despite tightening inventories, market sentiment remains cautious. This is reflected in increased net short positions in London cocoa futures, indicating that traders are bracing for potential demand-side weaknesses. These developments illustrate the complex interplay between production trends, policy shifts, and speculative activity in determining global cocoa market dynamics.

This week’s global cocoa market report.

• The Ivory Coast is set to benefit from the European Union's delayed enforcement of its deforestation regulation, preserving market access until late 2026. While cocoa pod counts are currently 7 percent above the five-year average, port arrivals have dropped by 3.7 percent year over year, totaling 618,899 metric tons as of late November. This contrast between strong crop indicators and reduced logistical throughput highlights ongoing sector vulnerabilities.
• Ghana shares a similarly positive crop outlook, bolstered by the EU’s regulatory delay. However, declining cocoa grind rates in key consumption regions may weigh on demand for Ghanaian cocoa. Nigeria, meanwhile, is expected to see an 11 percent drop in cocoa production due to limited investment and agronomic issues. Nonetheless, broader global supply appears stable due to compensating growth in other producing countries.
• Globally, cocoa demand is under pressure. Asian grind data reveals a 17 percent decline, while Europe reports a 4.8 percent drop, both pointing to reduced chocolate production. North American markets also face weak retail sales, with notable downturns from firms like Hershey.
• On the trading front, March 2026 cocoa futures are under sustained bearish pressure, hovering near $5,050 per ton. Without consistent closes above $5,750, market sentiment remains negative, and lower support levels may be tested. Overall, while production forecasts are favorable in parts of West Africa, market direction is dominated by regulatory timing, demand softness, and technical pricing patterns.

Here's a professional summary of the episode focused on the global cocoa market for November 23, 2025:

• Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is currently above the five-year average, driven by favorable weather and optimal pod development. Despite a 5.7 percent year-on-year decline in exports for October and November, the drop reflects logistical challenges rather than reduced output. Farmers remain hopeful for the main crop, though global demand fluctuations and policy changes add uncertainty. Ghana reports similarly strong production prospects due to healthy agricultural conditions, but faces demand-side and regulatory pressures.
• Nigeria contrasts with its neighbors, projecting an 11 percent production decline for the 2025–2026 season. This decrease stems from infrastructure gaps and local climate issues, though exports have remained stable, showcasing resilience. Meanwhile, the United States has removed a 10 percent import tariff on cocoa, aiming to lower costs and encourage imports.
• In the European Union, the implementation of a deforestation regulation targeting cocoa-linked land use violations has been delayed. This temporarily reduces pressure on suppliers in West Africa and South America. However, global cocoa demand remains subdued. Declining grind data in key markets like North America, Asia, and Europe reflects reduced chocolate sales, with companies such as Hershey noting downward trends. As a result, the International Cocoa Organization now forecasts a market surplus, reversing earlier deficit projections.
• Overall, while favorable production in Ivory Coast and Ghana supports supply, weakened demand and Nigeria’s production setbacks complicate the market outlook and contribute to price volatility.

This episode offers an in-depth analysis of the global cocoa market as of November 16, 2025.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa production remains robust, supported by favorable weather that has enhanced pod development and bean drying efficiency. Harvest volumes are 7 percent above the five-year average. However, port arrivals have dropped by 9 percent year over year. This is not due to reduced output, but rather early-season logistical bottlenecks and farmers delaying shipments.
• Ghana is also experiencing strong agricultural conditions, with rapid pod development and favorable feedback from farmers suggesting a strong upcoming harvest. Nonetheless, softer chocolate sales in North America and Europe are placing downward pressure on global demand and prices.
• Conversely, Nigeria is facing an anticipated 11 percent drop in cocoa output. Structural inefficiencies and poor weather are contributing factors, potentially causing supply constraints in markets reliant on Nigerian cocoa.
• Globally, cocoa demand is weakening, as reflected by lower processing (grinding) activity in North America, Asia, and Europe. This slowdown is occurring despite rising production levels in key countries. While the addition of cocoa to the Bloomberg Commodity Index could stimulate speculative interest, it is unlikely to offset the impact of declining chocolate consumption and growing supply.
• Export patterns reinforce these concerns. The Ivory Coast, despite strong production, is experiencing reduced export volumes, while U.S. cocoa stock levels are falling. Although tight stock availability might offer some price support, rising global production estimates point to a likely surplus unless demand conditions change substantially.

This episode covers key developments in the global cocoa market.

• In the Ivory Coast, the main crop harvest has begun under favorable dry weather, which has improved cocoa bean drying conditions. However, despite a strong start, cocoa exports have declined from 365,072 metric tons to 304,140 metric tons early in the marketing year. This, combined with ICE-monitored inventories hitting a seven-and-a-half-month low, may add upward pressure on prices. The decline in exports could also signal deeper issues related to forestry management or macroeconomic instability.
• Ghana's cocoa sector is experiencing a mix of beneficial and adverse conditions. While strong weather supports pod development and yield potential, the industry is hampered by smuggling, driven by price gaps and delayed farmer payments. The government has introduced informant reward programs and improved pricing strategies to combat these challenges. It is also supporting farmers with subsidies, including free fertilizers and pesticides, to retain agricultural value within the country.
• In Nigeria, cocoa production is forecasted to drop by 11% in the 2025-2026 crop year, down to 305,000 metric tons. This decline is linked to aging plantations and insufficient access to fertilizers, posing a risk to Nigeria’s economy and tightening global supply, which may further influence price trends.
• Cocoa’s inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is expected to draw inflows from passive investment funds, possibly stabilizing or lifting cocoa futures. However, the market remains vulnerable to softening global demand. Grinding volumes—a proxy for demand—have decreased across Asia, Europe, and North America. Elevated cocoa prices and tariffs have also curbed chocolate consumption in key consumer regions like North America.

This episode provides an in-depth overview of the cocoa market.

• Ivory Coast enters the season with strong production expectations, with pod counts above the five-year average. However, significant volumes of preseason stock are being rejected by grinders and exporters due to concerns over small bean size and low fat content. Although the main crop is robust, the mid-crop yield is expected to decline by 9% from the previous year, raising quality concerns. In response to economic pressures and the upcoming presidential election, the government has raised cocoa prices to support approximately five million farmers. Despite this, liquidity shortages and quality issues are limiting trader willingness to finance new purchases.
• Cocoa exports from Ivory Coast have seen a modest year-on-year increase, but logistical and financial hurdles are delaying shipments. On the sustainability front, 40% of cocoa is now digitally traceable, though delays in EU deforestation legislation may slow further reforms.
• Ghana’s cocoa sector is poised for recovery, with projected production exceeding 650,000 tons for the 2025–2026 season, thanks to improved farming practices and government programs. However, long-term risks from soil degradation and illegal mining remain. Subsidies and pricing support have reduced smuggling, bolstering Ghana’s market position.
• Global demand continues to lag, particularly in Europe and North America, exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite this, local enterprises are innovating with cocoa pulp to diversify income streams for farmers. As production rises across West Africa, the global cocoa market is expected to shift from a deficit to a surplus. However, demand recovery remains slow, indicated by lower grinding volumes in key consumption regions.

This week's cocoa market report highlights regional production shifts.

• In the Ivory Coast, cocoa pod counts have risen 7% above the five-year average, driven by higher farmgate prices. However, exports fell sharply, down over 50% year on year, totaling just 48,753 metric tons in early October. While the elevated pricing policy aims to support farmer incomes and encourage production, critics warn it may lead to global oversupply. Additionally, mid-crop quality and volumes have declined due to insufficient rainfall, with estimates lowered to 400,000 metric tons (a 9% annual drop).
• Ghana, by contrast, has seen a surge in cocoa deliveries. Between August and early September, arrivals reached 50,440 metric tons, up from just 11,000 metric tons the prior year. This has boosted optimism for the 2025–26 main crop, with a target of 650,000 metric tons, up 8.3% from last year. Meanwhile, Nigeria faces a forecasted 11% production drop to 305,000 metric tons, driven by aging trees, poor infrastructure, and shortages of agricultural inputs. Although exports rose by 15% in August, they declined 22% year on year in July, reflecting ongoing systemic issues.
• Globally, the International Cocoa Organization projects a 142,000 metric ton surplus for the current season, driven by a 7.8% increase in production to 4.84 million metric tons. This supply growth, coupled with weakening grind data from key regions (including a 35% year-on-year drop in Malaysia's Q3 grindings and a 21% decline in North American chocolate candy sales), is placing downward pressure on prices.
• Despite short-term tensions such as ICE-monitored stocks falling to a six-month low, the broader market outlook remains bearish.