Episode Overview:

Chocolate lovers everywhere have been feeling the pinch — and today we unpack why. Cocoa prices have skyrocketed, production is at its lowest in over a decade, and the traditional cocoa supply chain is under immense strain. In this episode, we explore:

• Why cocoa prices hit a historic high of over $12,900 per ton
• The devastating production drop in West Africa, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana
• Major threats: aging trees, swollen shoot virus, and climate change
• Why many cocoa farmers aren't benefiting from high prices
• Brazil’s ambitious rise — from collapse to potential world leader in cocoa
• The risks and rewards of Brazil’s new cocoa mega farms
• Latin America’s growing role and Ecuador’s success story
• How climate resilience and farmer-centric approaches are reshaping cocoa’s future
• Three potential scenarios for the cocoa market through 2030

Key Topics:

• The Cocoa Price Surge: Causes behind the record price increases and their global impact.
• West Africa’s Crisis: Aging farms, disease, and climate threats leading to a major production collapse.
• Brazil’s Comeback: How Brazil is planning to double cocoa output through mega farms and agroforestry.
• Risks of Monoculture: Why genetic diversity matters in large-scale farming.
• Farmer-Centric Innovations: New programs in Colombia and Ghana designed to stabilize incomes and promote sustainability.
• Climate Resilience Efforts: Breeding tougher trees, improving soils, and rethinking farming practices.
• The Big Picture: Managed recovery, structural deficit, or overshoot and bust — where is cocoa headed?

Takeaways:

• The cocoa market is at a crossroads — with massive uncertainty about its future.
• Sustainability, resilience, and empowering farmers will be critical to stabilizing supply.
• Latin America, especially Brazil, may redefine the global cocoa landscape.
• Investment, innovation, and global cooperation are urgently needed to secure chocolate’s future.

Global Cocoa Market Update – Week of April 27, 2025

This week's episode delivers an in-depth look at shifting cocoa production dynamics, emerging economic challenges, and evolving global demand trends impacting the cocoa industry.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Export Slowdown and Mid Crop Concerns
Cocoa shipments from Ivory Coast increased 11.3% year-over-year to 1,480,000 metric tons — a stark deceleration compared to the 35% surge seen last December. The upcoming mid crop is forecast at 400,000 metric tons, a 9% decline year-over-year, driven by dry weather. Political instability, marked by the exclusion of opposition leader Tidjane Thiam from elections, adds to market risks.

Ghana's Cocoa Production Challenges Deepen
Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, has revised its production forecast downward for the second time this season to 670,500 metric tons. The persistent spread of swollen shoot disease, affecting over 40% of productive capacity, underscores the sector’s structural challenges, with replanting efforts hampered by critical funding shortages.

Brazil’s Ambitious Production Expansion
In contrast, Brazil is pursuing aggressive growth. Through Schmidt Agricola’s large-scale, high-density cocoa plantations, Brazil aims to boost production dramatically, with projections of reaching 1.6 million metric tons over the next decade. While promising, risks around genetic uniformity and disease susceptibility remain.

Global Market Overview: Demand Holds, Pressures Mount
Grindings in major regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia saw less-than-expected declines, suggesting steady demand resilience despite elevated cocoa prices. The International Cocoa Organization projects a global surplus, offering slight relief, but market dynamics remain heavily influenced by regional production risks, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Sustainability and Innovation Trends
Efforts like Luker Chocolates’ sustainable initiatives in Colombia highlight how technology-driven, eco-friendly practices may become key to stabilizing global cocoa production and reducing long-term price volatility.

Strategic Implications:

• Supply Volatility:
  Structural production challenges in West Africa, particularly disease outbreaks and political risks, will continue to shape global supply concerns.
• Emerging Producers:
  Brazil’s scale-up could alter traditional market dynamics, creating more competition for West African cocoa exporters over the next decade.
• Demand Shifts:
  Despite price pressure, resilient grindings suggest strong underlying consumer demand, particularly for premium and sustainably sourced chocolate products.
• Sustainability as a Growth Lever:
  Producers investing in sustainable agriculture and technological innovation may gain competitive advantages in an increasingly ESG-focused market environment.