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We walk through the real signals under today’s commodity markets, from U.S. and global ending stocks to why corn and soy picked up acres despite lean margins. Then we map where acres will actually shift in 2026 and share a practical framework for risk, insurance, and contribution margin.

• U.S. ending stocks measured in acres across 13 crops and why 40 million is a headwind but not a glut
• World ex‑China stocks tightening and what that means for tradable supply
• Why corn and soy gained acres as wheat and cotton weakened
• How crop insurance changes dryland decisions in the Plains
• The soybean‑corn ratio at 2.36 and its 2.2 million‑acre swing per 0.1 move
• Expected shifts from the Great Plains and Dakotas to the Delta
• Planning the final 20% of rotation with live budgets
• Operating margin leverage and stronger risk management with ARC, PLC, SCO and ECO

At the beginning of the year, these shows will be just for premium clients, people who are clients of Ag Bull Trading and Ag Bull Media

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Thank you, Tommy G

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We dig into tight cattle supplies, a slow, science-led reopening of the Mexico border, and why beef prices stay sticky while soybeans slide. We map out where policy could lift margins in 2026, from E-15 and 45Z to farm aid timing and ACA subsidies.

• lighter-than-expected placements and persistent cattle tightness
• phased screwworm testing with three inspections in Mexico and one in the US
• beef prices stay firm in CPI while electricity costs weigh on households
• China soybean purchases progress toward 12 MMT commitment
• soybean competitiveness hinges on tariff relief versus Brazil
• inflation easing shifts focus to unemployment and Fed cuts
• per-acre FBA estimates with soybean relief lagging the hurt
• SDRP phase one top-ups coming later; phase two data issues
• year-round E-15 momentum and California’s early step
• 45Z, RFS, and domestic demand as price catalysts for corn and soy
• ACA subsidy extension pressure for rural families
• specialty crops and sugar losses signal need for more aid
• Supreme Court tariff ruling and 2026 market implications

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E-Mail tg@agbull.com

Thank you, Tommy G

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We unpack why feedlot placements keep falling, how heavier carcass weights mask some supply tightness, and where 2025 prices could land if demand stays steady. We also cut through noise on imports, the Mexico border shift, and dairy buyout rumors with history and context.

• November placements lower and annual totals sharply down
• 2025 fed cattle supplies likely tighter than 2024
• Demand steady as baseline risk, not a driver lower
• Heavier carcass weights boost output per head
• Front‑end supply recalculated for longer days on feed
• Argentina small, Brazil moderate import growth
• Mexico shifts from feeder exports toward feeding at home
• Cow culling falls, herd transition to slow growth
• Dairy buyout history and low odds of a shock today
• Practical read on prices, leverage, and risk

Please click subscribe on YouTube or follow on Spotify or Apple to catch the chart‑driven breakdowns and our upcoming “cattle talk for dummies” series

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E-Mail tg@agbull.com

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We unpack the new farmer “bridge” aid program, the real funding source behind it, and why the math still falls short for many crops. Along the way we track rate cuts, border and water moves, USMCA signals, and China’s soybean timeline that could reshape 2026.

• travel takeaways from rice, wheat, cattle and peanut country
• India rice dumping pressure and White House response
• FBA design, payment estimates and February timing
• why CCC funds it, not tariffs
• specialty crop squeeze including sugar losses
• FSA staffing limits and delivery risks
• potash sanctions shift and fertilizer outlook
• Mexico water deliveries under the 1944 treaty
• plant closures, cattle cycle and demand
• Fed cuts, dot plot and financing costs
• USMCA tilt toward bilateral fixes
• SAF 45Z uncertainty and blender credit bridge
• ACA subsidy debate and farm family coverage
• China soybean buys, marketing-year logic and seasonality
• record ag trade deficit, ethanol and rice bright spots
• path to stability in 2026 and tariff de-escalation hopes

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Thank you, Tommy G

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We sit down with Rachel “Iowa Farm Mama” Fishback to explore how a pandemic pivot led to Pride of Pork, why TikTok makes farms feel close, and what the economics look like from rust-hit beans to double-cost hog barns. We trade notes on DIY media, clear audio, and why thin relief checks don’t match uneven pain across the countryside.

• launching Pride of Pork and pork industry news on Acres TV
• why casual video builds trust and reach
• iPhone vs cameras, confidence over perfection
• audio quality as the non‑negotiable for podcasts
• DIY media versus old news gatekeepers
• yields, soybean rust pressure and prices at harvest
• running older equipment and auction strategy
• aid math, basis differences and fairness
• consolidation in pork and rising barn costs
• health insurance strain on farm families
• how to watch on Acres TV and follow on TikTok

If you're out there and you're in the hog business, drop a comment down below. How much more is it expensive to build a hog building than it was five, six years ago?

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E-Mail tg@agbull.com

Thank you, Tommy G

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We test the “golden age” claim against data on trend yields, usage, margins, and policy. Corn usage improves while soybean demand stays soft, and tighter operating margins force sharper risk management into 2026.

• Corn yields modestly above trend, not extreme
• Corn usage climbs above trend, supportive tone
• Soybean yields mid-pack with weak export story
• Rare overlap of big crop and high price
• South America hedging pressure on beans
• Contribution margins flat despite higher revenue
• Higher operating leverage raises cash flow risk
• Practical marketing and insurance priorities
• Limits of ad hoc payments and equity gaps
• ARC/PLC timing and cash flow planning
• Upcoming AEI.ag webinar and travel

AEI.ag is where you can find all of our content. We have a premium set of articles. We have our freemium newsletter as well. We have an upcoming webinar where we're gonna be my business partner and I are gonna be breaking down our outlook for the farm economy, really focused on management lessons that producers can implement, especially if they have a tight margin outlook for 2026.

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Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
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AG BULL Media


E-Mail tg@agbull.com

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

We unpack why China’s soybean purchase timeline keeps sliding, how the market is reacting, and who should be accountable. We dig into border biosecurity worries, beef policy levers, the coming Fed move, crop insurance changes, and a likely aid bridge to 2026.

• shifting claims on China’s soybean buys and missing signatures
• soybean futures weakness and market skepticism
• screwworm concerns and quieter agency updates at the border
• cattle rally versus talk of tariff cuts and import levers
• USMCA review signals, Mexico demand, and retaliation risks
• Farm Bill 2.0 delays and SNAP’s dominant share
• E15 year-round push, RFS volumes, and 45Z SAF uncertainty
• crop insurance rule changes and prevent plant buy-up removal
• rumored $12–14bn farmer aid and timing of payments
• high fertilizer costs, planting talk, and cash flow strain

Sign up for premium content this week and I will send you back your $25. If you sign up for the $250, you will instantly get a credit from me for $25. If you sign up for one month for $25, I'll send your $25 back. That is my Christmas gift to you.

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Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
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E-Mail tg@agbull.com

Thank you, Tommy G

www.agbull.com

Markets open after a CME outage as we track the odds of a December rate cut, soybean sales to China without a signed deal, and the shape of USDA’s bridge aid into 2026. We lay out the stakes on tariffs at the Supreme Court, biofuel rules, E15 delays, and Farm Bill 2.0 politics while cattle find a surprising bounce.

• Fed cut odds and leadership signals
• China soybean buys, enforcement, and price gaps
• USDA aid timing, scope, and funding risks
• Cotton and sorghum outlook with margin stress
• Deere guidance and machinery bottom watch
• India and Canada trade snags
• Food security reporting pause and SNAP recertification talk
• Supreme Court tariff case scenarios
• RFS, RINs, 45Z delays, and year-round E15
• Farm Bill 2.0 vote math and timelines
• Cattle border reopening, packer capacity, and price recovery
• Why Congress must codify to reduce court whiplash

All that for $25 a month. We’re up watching the markets 24 hours a day, so you don’t have to.

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The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com

Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
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E-Mail tg@agbull.com

Thank you, Tommy G