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We dig into tight cattle supplies, a slow, science-led reopening of the Mexico border, and why beef prices stay sticky while soybeans slide. We map out where policy could lift margins in 2026, from E-15 and 45Z to farm aid timing and ACA subsidies.

• lighter-than-expected placements and persistent cattle tightness
• phased screwworm testing with three inspections in Mexico and one in the US
• beef prices stay firm in CPI while electricity costs weigh on households
• China soybean purchases progress toward 12 MMT commitment
• soybean competitiveness hinges on tariff relief versus Brazil
• inflation easing shifts focus to unemployment and Fed cuts
• per-acre FBA estimates with soybean relief lagging the hurt
• SDRP phase one top-ups coming later; phase two data issues
• year-round E-15 momentum and California’s early step
• 45Z, RFS, and domestic demand as price catalysts for corn and soy
• ACA subsidy extension pressure for rural families
• specialty crops and sugar losses signal need for more aid
• Supreme Court tariff ruling and 2026 market implications

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Thank you, Tommy G