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Quarterly Essay 86: Sleepwalk to War

Australia’s Unthinking Alliance with America

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Quarterly Essay 86: Sleepwalk to War

By: Hugh White
Narrated by: Hugh White
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About this listen

In this gripping essay, Hugh White explores Australia’s fateful choice to back America to the hilt and oppose China. What led both sides of politics to align with America so absolutely? Is this a case of sleepwalking to war? What tests might a new government face?

White assesses America’s credibility and commitment, by examining AUKUS, the Quad, Trump and Biden. He discusses what the Ukraine conflict tells us about the future. And he argues that the US can neither contain China nor win a war over Taiwan. So where does this leave our future security and prosperity in Asia? Is there a better way to navigate the disruption caused by China's rise?

This is a powerful and original essay by Australia’s leading strategic thinker.

Hugh White is the author of The China Choice and How to Defend Australia, and the acclaimed Quarterly Essays Power Shift and Without America. He is emeritus professor of strategic studies at ANU and was the principal author of Australia’s Defence White Paper 2000.

©2022 Hugh White (P)2022 Audible Australia Pty Ltd. Politics & Government China War Australia Politics

Critic Reviews

"Canberra’s rhetoric helps raise the risk of the worst outcome for Australia: a war between China and America, in which we are likely to be involved. Over the past decade, and without any serious discussion, Australian governments have come to believe that America should go to war with China if necessary to preserve US primacy in Asia, and that Australia should, as a matter of course, go to war with it." (Hugh White, Sleepwalk to War)
All stars
Most relevant  
Hugh White raises crucial issues for our region and the world to consider. An important read especially for Australians. I imagine it has been read closely by Chinese thinkers as well.

This essay may well be the one that future historians look to, to understand what went wrong or right in the international relations of our epoch.

Thorough wise and alarming

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A solid realist analysis of the changing political landscape in the Asia Pacific region that couldn't be more timely. It makes some solid arguments and poses some though questions.

As a bonus it's read very well too.

well worth your time!

an important contribution the to debate

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I found myself agreeing with the author of this essay, for far too long Australia has been guilty of blindly following the US lead. The US will always put itself first, it’s what all the great nations do, it’s also what every other nation does at the end of the day. US exceptionalism is a myth, they are no more exceptional than any other hegemonic polity.

Australia needs to take care of its own interests first and to do that it must take responsibility for its own defence.

Australian politicians are an arrogant and rather racist lot, it’s why they get offside with the Asian nations and most other non white nations for that matter…. Look no further than PNG or the Solomons.

Australia needs to understand that our future is one where China and India will dominate the Pacific Asian and Indian hemisphere. The US empire will eventually retrench much as the British, French and Roman empires did. The Russian Empire will prevail because it remains a great nation. Hopefully India and China will provide the strategic counterbalance while Japan and other medium sized economies occupy the middle ground. Small nations like NZ will thrive as they are great at building relationships with integrity. Australia not so much…. Unless it changes course…. Time will tell

Great Essay

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Good essay and worth listening/reading. The author asks good questions about the loyalty Australia has to the US, while it does not seem like they will do the same in return if push comes to shove. Also, he opens the topic of potentially hedging our bets to make sure we have a favourable outcome regardless of whoever wins the geopolitical contest between the two world powers. Makes sense. However, it's easy to cite problems without any solutions. The essay is probably 99% problems and 1% solutions. Severely lacking in this area.

More questions than answers

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Exceptional essay! Depth, breadth, and insight. If only Canberra would listen, acknowledge the truths and act accordingly...

Must listen!

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Hugh White’s essay outlines Australia’s foreign policy choices in a rapidly changing world. His cogent arguments outline Australia’s lazy thinking about it’s role in the region and give much food for thought about the direction future policy should take. This essay, along with his other two Quarterly Essays, should be required reading for all politicians and concerned citizens.

A Wake-up Call

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Hugh White pulls no punches in calling out expedient political marketing slogans as policy & sycophantic military purchases replacing strategic military planning. In this essay, he simply asks Australian politicians to have their national interest at heart, i.e. that Australia has a mind of its own in strategy.

Hugh White pulls no punches

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Few books have the courage to question and challenge the status quo of the over reliance on the US alliance with America. The presumption America will come to our aid as they weaken in the global arena, the rise of China and Australia’s relationship to our pacific and Asian neighbours has been a blundering failure of poor engagement, arrogance and misunderstanding of the real intentions and understanding of the Geo strategic environment understood by nations close in proximity to china.
Taiwan will be the deciding factor over who holds strategic hegemony in this region. We are I’ll prepared for conflict, over reliant on the US, and our foreign policy is basically america will save us. I wouldn’t put my cards there. We need to build better relationships whilst maintaining sovereignty without all my he idiotic chest beating of the Morrison era. And we need a coherent sensible foreign policy that stands alone from whatever the US wants. China is here to stay it’s not going away and it will only get more bold and more assertive in the region we need to learn to work with them. White is a really good voice in this area. His thinking is against the mainstream and hence should be considered in our own strategic thinking because failure to listen could see us grossly unprepared for the challenges our nation and our region will face this century. Highly recommend this read.

Essential perspective

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Interesting essay but White tends to inflate the inevitability of chinese hegemony in the region while downplaying US resolve and interest. This conceit is what allows him to conclude that the US alliance is wrongheaded (which is the theme of most of White's work) and that what we should really be spending our time and money on is working with china as the main regional hegemon, or put less euphemistically, Australia should develop a policy of appeasement. This is a bold position, and one that, as far as I can tell, is based off an Australian Treasury projection of China's likely GDP growth in the coming decades and it's existing military modernisation efforts (a pretty flimsy basis in my mind for such a radical departure from existing Australian policy regarding china).

Almost compelling

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Thoughtful,insightful. I hope and prey that many will listen to this , especially Australian politicians.

Invaluable

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