In this solo update, host Andrew Walker revisits his three 2025 stock ideas (disclosure: long all three!): Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Keros Therapeutics (KROS), and Full House Resorts (FLL). He breaks down Sage’s acquisition by SUPN and the chance of a higher bid from Biogen, discusses Keros’ announced capital return, and digs into why Full House Resorts has lagged so far despite promising insider buying and strong project progress. Andrew also highlights why active shareholder engagement still matters and how insider moves can reveal conviction.

For links to the prior podcast ideas and open letter, please see this post: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/midyear-2025-podcast-ideas-updates

Chapters

[00:00:00] Andrew opens midyear update.

[00:01:00] Recaps Sage, Keros, Full House.

[00:07:33] Sage sold, Biogen topping bid?

[00:14:27] Keros capital return progress is slow.

[00:18:44] Full House lagging; insider buying.

[00:27:59] CEO massive buy from ex-wife.

[00:30:30] Refinancing risk key catalyst ahead.

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this monthly book club edition of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Byrne Hobart of The Diff and Capital Gains to unpack Ray Dalio’s latest book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. The pair probe Dalio’s sweeping macroeconomic theories, debt cycles, historical analogies, and technology’s role in shaping the future. They scrutinize the credibility of Dalio’s claims, the real-world implications of sovereign debt risks, and the potential misapplications of macro trading skills to macroeconomic policymaking. The conversation winds through AI’s effect on productivity, the staying power of elites through societal upheavals, and even the viability of crypto as a hedge. It's a rich analysis with sharp skepticism and economic nuance.

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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction

[00:01:38] Initial thoughts on Dalio’s book

[00:05:26] Short vs. long debt cycles

[00:06:40] Historical cycle timing critique

[00:07:24] Pre-WWI and 1930s comparison

[00:10:11] Disconnection between theories and globalization

[00:16:25] Institutional trust and economic cycles

[00:18:18] Credibility of Dalio’s theories

[00:21:26] Macro trading vs. macro policy

[00:24:42] Trump-era policy implications

[00:26:19] Foreign debt selling as signal

[00:28:14] Put options in tail events

[00:32:35] Buffett’s strategic puts example

[00:35:32] Technology optimism in final chapter

[00:40:25] AI effects on labor, productivity

[00:45:43] Older professionals using AI

[00:47:00] Book’s global bearish stance

[00:51:22] Historical elite persistence examples

[00:53:45] Bitcoin in crisis scenarios

[01:01:54] Sovereign wealth fund proposal critique

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Guowei from the substack "Yummy Century Stocks" for an extensive discussion on EchoStar (SATS). They dig into the company’s complex structure, diving deep into its failing satellite and pay TV segments, and the potential trapped value in its wireless spectrum assets. The conversation unpacks regulatory drama with the FCC, speculation around a Trump Mobile tie-in, and the looming potential for bankruptcy. With both long and short positions from top investors and a potential valuation ranging from zero to $100+ per share, this is one of the market's most fascinating distressed plays.____________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces EchoStar and guest[00:02:54] Overview of EchoStar’s three business units[00:06:54] Wireless network specs and performance issues[00:11:36] Realistic market challenges and consumer view[00:17:08] Valuation estimate for SATS spectrum[00:19:42] Pushback on spectrum market and caps[00:22:58] Changing spectrum demand and infrastructure[00:24:45] Three core SATS spectrum bands[00:25:32] AWS-3 and AWS-4 deep dive[00:29:47] FCC’s current investigation and history[00:34:00] Simington’s resignation and FCC politics[00:35:02] Trump intervenes, Trump Mobile theory[00:39:19] Potential regulatory settlement outcomes[00:41:09] Market comps for spectrum valuation[00:44:39] Unique legal nature of spectrum assets[00:47:51] Why bankruptcy could benefit EchoStar[00:50:44] Impact of bankruptcy on FCC issues[00:53:21] Risks to spectrum ownership in court[00:54:52] Equity protection in bankruptcy scenario[00:57:42] Possible strategic paths and constraints[01:00:42] Equity thesis despite complex unlock path[01:04:12] Convert notes vs equity pre-bankruptcy[01:07:00] Market speculation and timing expectations[01:08:30] Bankruptcy analogs and comparison to GGP[01:09:34] Challenges to network scaling and valueLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer