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Why the falling US dollar is igniting a massive emerging market supercycle

Why the falling US dollar is igniting a massive emerging market supercycle

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 2025 was a record-breaking year for Emerging Markets, seeing the largest capital inflows in over a decade. But is this a short-term flight from the US dollar, or the beginning of a structural "EM Supercycle"? In this episode, we sit down with Malcolm Dorson (Senior PM & Head of EM Strategy) and Billy Leung (Equity Research Analyst) from Global X to dissect the two engines of global growth: India and China. We explore why the "uninvestable" tag is fading from China, how India is carving a unique path through its landmark 2026 Free Trade Agreement with Europe, and why a 1% drop in the US dollar could be the most important signal for your portfolio. In this episode we cover: The Great EM Rotation The "February Surge": Breaking down why we just saw the largest inflows into EM in 11 years. Is it "choice" or a "flight from the US"? Early Innings: Exploring Global X’s thesis on whether we are at the start of a multi-year Emerging Market cycle. The 3.1% Rule: The Dollar & EM The Inverse Relationship: Understanding the mechanics of why EM equities historically rise 3.1% for every 1% drop in the US dollar. Currency Risk: How to manage FX volatility when investing in volatile regions. China: From "Uninvestable" to Rebirth The Sentiment Shift: Looking back at the regulatory hurdles of previous years and what has changed to bring institutional capital back to Beijing. AI & Tech: How China’s push for "tech self-reliance" and the rise of local LLMs (like the DeepSeek breakthrough in early 2026) are changing the narrative. India: The World’s New Growth Engine The India-EU FTA: The implications of the "Mother of All Deals" signed in January 2026 and how it positions India as the premier "China Plus One" beneficiary. Demographics vs. Policy: Is India simply where China was 20 years ago, or is the "market-friendly" democratic framework a fundamentally different catalyst? The AI Arms Race - Tailwinds vs. Headwinds: Does India’s services-heavy economy have a natural advantage in AI implementation, or does China’s manufacturing scale give it the edge in hardware? Portfolio Construction & Strategy - Active vs. Passive: Why broad index tracking might be dangerous in EMs and where to apply "quality" filters. - The $100k Challenge: A hypothetical breakdown of how to allocate $100,000 across the EM landscape today. Resources for this episode Ask a question (select the Investors podcast) Show partner resources ETF investor? Go beyond ordinary with Global X: View all funds Visit TermPlus to learn more Rask Resources All services Financial Planning Invest with us Access Show Notes Ask a question We love feedback! Follow us on social media: Instagram: @rask.invest TikTok: @rask.invest DISCLAIMER: This podcast contains general financial information only. That means the information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Because of that, you should consider if the information is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on it. If you’re confused about what that means or what your needs are, you should always consult a licensed and trusted financial planner. Unfortunately, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this podcast, including any financial, taxation, and/or legal information. Remember, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Rask Group is NOT a qualified tax accountant, financial (tax) adviser, or financial adviser. Access The Rask Group's Financial Services Guide (FSG): https://www.rask.com.au/fsg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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