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Wheat Watch: October's Final Rally, Global Harvests, and Your Bottom Line

Wheat Watch: October's Final Rally, Global Harvests, and Your Bottom Line

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This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello and welcome to the Daily Wheat Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, here to get you up to speed on the latest wheat prices, what’s driving the market, and what you can expect in the days ahead. Whether you grow wheat, trade grain, or just want to keep an ear on the most essential food commodities, I am glad you are listening.

Let us kick things off with today’s big number. As of this afternoon, wheat futures for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade closed at 5 dollars and 33 and one quarter cents per bushel. That is up about one point eight percent on the day. According to Dow Jones, this rally comes as traders squared up their books for the end of the month, with grains broadly rebounding late in the trading session. Even though the US dollar gained strength today—a factor that can often weigh on wheat prices by making US exports more expensive—the drive to close out trades before the weekend pushed wheat higher.

Looking a little deeper, there has been some volatility over the last few sessions. Just yesterday, the December wheat contract had closed lower at 5 dollars and 24 and a quarter cents per bushel. The market remains sensitive to international developments and changing weather conditions across major growing regions.

Speaking of weather, let us take a quick world tour. North America is looking at a calm ten-day forecast, which means good news for US farmers wrapping up fieldwork and preparing for winter wheat. France is also making progress, with nearly seventy percent of its soft wheat crop now in the ground, well ahead of last year’s pace. But, Western Europe is facing some delays as wetter weather slows down planting in a few areas.

Looking at the global supply picture, the European Commission just increased its soft wheat production estimate for the coming year to just over one hundred thirty-three million tons. Meanwhile, Russia—still the world’s wheat export powerhouse—looks set to ship between five and five and a half million tons this October. That is slightly below last year, but officials in Russia have actively encouraged bigger exports after a slow start to the season.

Over in Ukraine, the wheat harvest is mostly wrapped up. Farmers there have already brought in over forty million tons of grain this season, according to their economy ministry. The Black Sea remains a focus for global wheat flows, with shipping and logistics issues sometimes creating bottlenecks in exports.

Meanwhile, wheat exports from Canada and the United States are turning heads. Since the current marketing year began in June, US wheat exports have hit their highest levels since twenty thirteen. Canada is also shipping briskly, helped by solid demand and, in some cases, less competition from the Black Sea region.

So what does all this mean for you right now? If you are a grower, today’s rally is a good reminder of how quickly prices can shift as traders respond to both fundamentals and end-of-month positioning. If you buy wheat for feed or food processing, keep an eye on the export pace out of North America and the final tallies from Russia and Ukraine, because those numbers will influence major global price benchmarks.

Looking forward, analysts are watching for any hint of changes in demand from key buyers like China and for any new weather threats in the Southern Hemisphere, where wheat is heading into its final stages before harvest.

That wraps up our Daily Wheat Price Tracker for October thirty-first. I am Vanessa Clark, and I want to thank you for listening in on another fast-moving day in the wheat markets. Be sure to subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts so you never miss an update. Have a terrific evening, and I will catch you next time for more wheat news you can use.

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