Wheat Watch: China's Back, Russia Flexes, US Exports Jump
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Wheat Watch: China's Back, Russia Flexes, US Exports Jump
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About this listen
This is your Daily Wheat Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.
Welcome back to the Daily Wheat Price Tracker, your go-to podcast for wheat prices, trends, and insights from the global grain markets. I am Vanessa Clark. Whether you are a farmer, trader, baker, or just love staying in the loop on food production, I have got you covered with the latest news and what you need to know heading into tomorrow.
It is Tuesday, November fourth, and wheat has been on the move. Let us get right to the numbers everyone is looking for. On the Chicago Board of Trade, December wheat futures settled at five dollars forty-three and a half cents per bushel, which marked an increase of nine and a half cents on Monday. In metric terms, that is about one hundred ninety-nine dollars and seventy cents per ton. If you are watching the European market, December wheat in Paris closed at one hundred ninety-three euros seventy-five cents per ton, also ticking higher.
What is moving the market? For one, China is back in the news after sounding out US wheat for December through February loadings. This is big because China’s return to the buying desk is a fresh demand signal after a year of sitting out, and it is sparking hopes of further normalization in ag trade between the US and China. The White House recently announced a pause on new retaliatory tariffs and signaled that China will increase its US soybean purchases, and traders are watching closely to see if similar tariff changes could soon unlock more wheat movement as well.
Russia continues to flex its muscles as an export powerhouse, with exports for October estimated at more than five million tons. Their prices for twelve and a half percent protein wheat remain steady, holding near two hundred thirty dollars to two hundred thirty-three dollars per ton for early December delivery. Analysts are expecting brisk loading this month as weather is still cooperating. But, competition is set to heat up, with both Argentina and Australia harvesting bumper crops, which could put some downward pressure on prices later in the season.
From a weather standpoint, North America has been unseasonably warm with limited precipitation, which is great for fieldwork and efficiently wrapping up harvest. Meanwhile, Europe is staying warm but drier than usual, and South America is seeing mixed conditions. Brazil in particular has dried out a bit after previous concerns about wet weather, and progress is being made fast with their wheat harvest.
Export inspections out of the US are a bright spot, with weekly wheat shipments at three hundred fifty thousand metric tons for the week ending October thirtieth. That is a jump of thirty percent from the week before and sixty percent higher than a year ago, so global buyers are definitely active. Open interest in wheat futures has dropped a bit, which could signal some profit-taking now that prices have perked up, but traders remain alert for any upcoming announcements regarding international tenders or shifts in government tariffs.
If you are planning your sales, it is worth paying attention to these market movers. Seasonal weather could still shake things up, especially as winter approaches in the Black Sea region. Watch also for updates from the USDA on November fourteenth, which could reset yield expectations and supply outlooks for the new crop year.
Before I go, here is a practical takeaway: if you are making decisions based on these wheat price trends, remember to monitor not just spot prices but also the global news cycle. Shifts in export policy, weather updates, and international tender activity can all cause sudden price swings. Stay connected, stay nimble, and consider working some flexibility into your marketing plan.
That is a wrap for today’s episode of the Daily Wheat Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark. Thanks for joining me. If you found today’s update helpful, please subscribe, leave us a review, and tune in next time for more need-to-know news in the world of wheat. Take care and see you soon.
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