David Dredge joins the show for a deep dive into why risk is being dangerously misunderstood across global markets, and why Bitcoin’s recent underperformance may actually be a symptom of structural stress, not failure. David explains why volatility itself isn’t the risk, why leverage is the real accelerant, and how TradFi risk models quietly manufacture systemic blow-ups.

We unpack how suppressed volatility, ETFs, options markets, and structured products are changing Bitcoin’s market structure, why leverage is creeping in through Wall Street rather than native crypto venues, and how “Max Pain” dynamics emerge when under-capitalised risk builds up. David breaks down why the four-year cycle narrative is breaking down, why Bitcoin’s muted year isn’t about demand weakness, and how positioning ultimately drives outcomes.

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David Dredge: https://x.com/ConvexityDredge

Sam Callahan is the Director of Strategy & Research at OranjeBTC.

In this episode we discuss why Bitcoin’s fundamentals have never been stronger, why Bitcoin periodically decouples from global liquidity, how internal market dynamics can override macro conditions, and why today’s divergence between improving fundamentals and weak price action may actually be one of the most misunderstood moments in this cycle and why the four-year cycle framework is increasingly unreliable.

We also get into the deeper structural risks facing the global financial system, from fiscal dominance and runaway deficits to the looming insolvency of Social Security and Medicare. Sam walks through why entitlement spending, demographics, and interest expense create a problem that can’t be solved politically, only postponed monetarily.

THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS:

IREN

ANCHORWATCH

BLOCKWARE

LEDN

BITKEY

SWAN

FOLLOW:

Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny

Sam Callahan: https://x.com/samcallah