As 2026 gets underway, I'm joined by Lynn, my local real estate colleague here on the Outer Banks, and together we take a look at what actually happened in the 2025 market. There's been plenty of talk that last year was a downturn, but when you look at the data, the picture is more stable than many people expect.

Nationally, home prices rose modestly, inventory increased, and days on market moved higher, while total sales stayed near a 30-year low at roughly four million transactions, compared to the long-term average of five million. Here on the Outer Banks, residential sales increased about 3.6 percent year over year, median prices reached around $588,000, and total residential volume came in at just over $1.29 billion, even as homes took longer to sell.

In this episode, Lynn and I walk through what those numbers mean for buyers and sellers, why longer days on market don't automatically mean prices are falling, and how pricing, inspections, and expectations are affecting today's deals. We also talk about what to expect in 2026, including inventory trends, insurance costs, rental performance, and how to approach the market realistically.

In This Episode:

• [00:00] This is the 2026 kickoff episode with a market recap and forward-looking discussion.
• [01:16] Why perceptions of a "down market" don't always match what the data actually shows.
• [03:36] National 2025 stats reveal modest price growth, rising inventory, longer days on market, and total sales near a 30-year low.
• [06:29] The Outer Banks market tells a different story, with residential sales up 3.6 percent year over year.
• [06:54] Median home prices reached roughly $588,000, while total residential volume climbed to just over $1.29 billion.
• [08:08] Longer days on market are discussed as a key factor shaping buyer and seller perceptions.
• [09:05] Comparing 2025 sales activity to 2015 highlights how today's market mirrors pre-COVID norms rather than a downturn.
• [11:22] A decade-long comparison shows how median prices have more than doubled, driven by demand, rentals, and second-home buyers.
• [13:15] The rise of short-term rentals and luxury buyers reshapes pricing and expectations across the Outer Banks.
• [16:13] Buyers are becoming more selective, placing greater emphasis on inspections and property conditions.
• [18:04] Sellers' lack of urgency, especially in higher-end homes, affects pricing strategy and negotiation dynamics.
• [23:29] Negotiations in 2025 became more complex as buyers asked for more and sellers held firmer on price.
• [25:36] The importance of preparing homes before listing increases as buyer expectations rise.
• [27:26] How conflicting media narratives influence buyer and seller expectations.
• [29:18] Insurance costs, particularly coastal homeowner insurance, emerge as a growing affordability concern.
• [31:29] Rental performance shows mixed results, with stronger outcomes in higher-end, professionally managed properties.
• [34:21] Education and preparation are emphasized as key advantages for buyers and sellers heading into 2026.
• [36:00] Inventory levels remain lower than expected, though gradual increases are anticipated.
• [37:28] Sales-to-list price ratios highlight the impact of pricing correctly in the first 30 days on market.
• [40:25] A real-world pricing example illustrates how overpricing early can cost sellers long-term interest.
• [42:20] Proper pricing and home conditions are identified as critical factors for success in 2026.
• [43:18] Our outlook for 2026 as a more balanced, stable market year.

Resources:

Beach Road Banter Podcast