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Wake Up and Smell the Uncertainty: Your Daily Brew of Coffee Market Insights

Wake Up and Smell the Uncertainty: Your Daily Brew of Coffee Market Insights

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This is your Daily Coffee Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello and welcome to the Daily Coffee Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark and thanks for joining me for your essential update on all things coffee, from global prices to the key news shaping what ends up in your morning mug.

Let’s get started with the most important numbers of the day. As of the close of trading yesterday, October thirty-first, New York arabica coffee futures for December twenty twenty-five settled at three hundred ninety-two cents per pound. Meanwhile, London robusta futures for January twenty twenty-six closed at four thousand six hundred forty-one dollars per metric ton. These levels have been trending higher all week and reflect some major shifts happening in the coffee world right now.

So, what’s behind these big price moves? First, the robusta market is getting a big push from heavy rain and flooding in Vietnam, which is the world’s largest robusta producer. Reports from both local and global outlets confirm that the harvest this season is being delayed and disrupted, adding a layer of uncertainty that has traders paying close attention. On top of that, Vietnamese coffee exports are already up sharply this year compared to last, but with the adverse weather, markets are worried about the flow of new supplies.

Meanwhile, the arabica side of the story centers on Brazil, where weather has been a roller coaster. Minas Gerais, the heartland for Brazil’s arabica crop, received only a tiny fraction of its usual rainfall throughout much of October, sparking fears for the next season’s flowering and yields. Earlier this week, some rain was reported, but it may not be enough to completely offset the damage from previous dryness. That lingering uncertainty is keeping prices supported.

Add to this the ongoing volatility from tariffs and global trade policies. The United States has been imposing hefty tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil and is now considering new tariffs on Nicaraguan and Colombian beans. On the flip side, a new deal under negotiation with Vietnam could see US tariffs on Vietnamese coffee dropped, potentially making robusta imports cheaper for American roasters and possibly easing price pressure for some supermarket brands.

At the same time, both robusta and arabica stocks held in certified warehouses remain at multi-month lows. These tight inventories mean that any supply hiccup, whether caused by weather or trade issues, can have an outsized impact on prices.

So, what does all this mean for you if you are in the coffee business or just love your daily cup? With prices running high and markets volatile, many roasters and retailers are rethinking their sourcing strategies and passing costs on to consumers. If you see higher prices at your local coffee shop or on supermarket shelves, it is a direct reflection of these global challenges. For anyone in coffee retail or hospitality, watching weather reports out of Brazil and Vietnam, as well as following news on global tariffs, will be especially crucial in the weeks ahead.

And before we go, a quick headline from the specialty market: an auction in Colombia saw a lot of high-grade specialty coffee sell for a record-breaking almost one thousand dollars per pound. That’s not your average morning brew, but it shows how prized and diverse the coffee world remains.

That’s all for today’s episode of the Daily Coffee Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark. Thanks for listening, and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an update. Whether you are a trader, a barista, or just coffee curious, we are here every weekday, tracking the markets and news you care about. Enjoy your next cup and tune in next time.

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