With European VCs Lomax, Mads, Andrew and Dan

2025 year-in-review for European tech: capital, unicorns, geopolitics, AI, health, defence, and space space spaaaace.

01:25 – European tech in numbers

• $45bn into European startups (flat vs 2023–24, still ~½ of 2021 peak).
• 28 new unicorns in 2025 (up from 14 in 2024).
• US dominates: ~$250bn private tech funding.
• VC fundraising still tight (~$10bn into European funds).
• Exits are back: Wiz–Google, Klarna IPO, SMG IPO.

04:16 – 2025 in one sentence

• Dan: “Extreme volatility.”
• Lomax: “The final nail in globalisation.”
• Mads: “China became a true peer to the US.”
• Andrew: “Shipping fast beat gold-plated tech.”

05:49 – Most exciting tech moments

• Mads: Claude Code, Chinese open-source AI, ASML–Mistral deal.
• Lomax: Wiz’s $32bn cash exit.
• Andrew: 6G moves from lab to real specs.

08:39 – Darwin Awards (biggest screw-ups)

• Dan: Meta / Zuckerberg.
• Lomax: The entire EU institutional stack.
• Mads: Europe exporting founders to the US (incentive failure).
• Andrew: Rachel Reeves & UK growth policy.

11:59 – What smart people got wrong

• Mads: GPU bans didn’t stop China—backfired.
• Lomax: AI bubble didn’t burst.
• Dan: Investors piling blindly into defence.
• Andrew: LLMs are “dial-up,” not the endgame.

16:42 – Why 2025 was a good year

• Europe got a massive wake-up call (Dan).
• 4 new European decacorns (Lomax).
• Founders kept building despite chaos (Mads).
• VC rediscovered deep tech & hardware (Andrew).

21:23 – Geopolitics: a less naive world

• Globalisation fragmenting into blocs.
• Trust replaced by “trust but verify.”
• Sovereignty = opportunity for European founders (AI, defence, energy).

34:30 – AI Corner: the year AI got real

• DeepSeek shock wipes ~$600bn off Nvidia (Jan).
• Claude Code: $1bn ARR in ~6 months.
• Google Gemini comeback beats rivals on benchmarks.
• China dominates open-source AI.
• Rise of VLAs (Vision-Language-Action models) → physical AI, robotics.
• Big question for 2026: “Are we the horses?”

47:44 – Health & bio highlights

• GLP-1s everywhere: diabetes → cardio, kidney, neuro.
• Sales ~$62bn, heading toward $120bn+.
• Preventative health clinics scale (Function, Neko).
• Biotech rebounds; AI-designed drugs hit Phase 2.
• Psychedelics back: AbbVie deal, mental health momentum.

56:51 – Defence & space

• Modern warfare now rewards fast shipping founders.
• Global launch cadence: every ~1.5 days.
• Space shifts from experimentation → permanent infrastructure.
• Blue Origin finally launches New Glenn; SpaceX eyes Mars (again).

Upside is a weekly pod that looks at the global news headlines and works out what really matters for European tech, venture, startups and investing.

With European VCs - Lomax Ward, Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen

What’s on the docket this week:

•SpaceX mega-raise / IPO noise: “what are you really buying?”

•“Europe’s euro success”: North–South polarity flipping

•China’s $1T+ goods trade surplus + what it means for Europe

•US defence spend reality check

•AI corner: chips, models, and AI bubble chatter

00:44 — Is DeepMind a “UK business”?

02:07 — Sovereignty is back baby!

•In defence / strategic sectors, cap table sovereignty now affects outcomes.

•Mentioned: UK rules requiring government consent in certain sectors (context: national security screening).

03:18 — DeepMind × UK DSIT partnership

•New partnership + UK research lab expansion; tied to the AI Security Institute and public services.

06:20 — AI tutor moment (education-focused Gemini)

•Vision: curriculum-grounded AI tutor as a once-in-a-generation lever for education.

08:56 — SpaceX: IPO in 2026? Raise ~ $30B? Valuation talk: $1.5T

•Why IPO now if private markets still open? Answer: scale + capital needs + timing.

◦Starlink: fast-growing, high-margin connectivity “golden goose”

14:18 — The “rest of the valuation”: orbital data centres thesis

•Speculative upside: compute in orbit (solar intensity, cooling, vacuum data transmission).

•Reality check: today’s revenue is tiny; power + mass constraints are brutal.

•Europe lens: founder talent often needs the US ecosystem to build at this frontier.

20:02 — Europe gets hit from both sides: US + China

•US signals Western Europe is lower priority; more warmth to Central/Eastern Europe (per discussion).

•China’s exports keep powering ahead; tariffs leak via third-country routing.

25:45 — Musk vs EU + the single-market problem

•Musk lobs political grenades after X/EU regulatory action (context: DSA).

•Core structural issue raised: no true EU single market in financial services → higher friction + lost productivity.

29:17 — Defence spending

•Warning to VCs: commitments don’t equal budgets landing now.

•Startup mismatch: defence procurement cycles vs 18–24 month funding cadence.

32:19 — AI corner: “bubble” talk + positioning

•Institutions trimming exposure at the margin, but not fleeing.

•View expressed: still upside runway, despite concentration and risk-off hedging.

33:44 — Europe W: Mistral open-sources DevStral 2 (coding model)

•Narrative: Europe “back in the open-source game.”

•Contrast: Meta reportedly leaning toward a closed model strategy (“Avocado” mentioned).

35:23 — Chips geopolitics: Nvidia H200s, China domestic ramp

•Thesis: export controls accelerate Chinese domestic chip ecosystems.

•Mentions: Huawei Ascend; Moore Threads momentum (plus broader “self-reliance” logic).

38:18 — Deal of the week: Unconventional AI — $475M seed

Upside #69 - For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture, startups and investing. Every week Mads, Lomax, Andrew and myself (Dan) get together and chat.

Bending Spoons

01:27 Berkshire-like roll-up; mostly debt-funded; big integration/tech-debt execution risk.

3:30 “US→Italy arbitrage”—cut expensive US costs, rebuild with top Italian talent + high-efficiency culture; cash-cow ops; high employee satisfaction.

05:13 Success likely hinges on better distribution/ops than previous owners.

Brexit + Europe’s challenges

07:01 “trade intensity” vs G7—UK uniquely diverging down since 2019; services don’t offset goods loss.

09:20 Labour red lines may shift; customs union helps goods but politically messy (standards).

11:02 IKEA label anecdote → regulatory complexity.

12:30 VW/Europe: China competition + governance/union constraints; Europe slow to reform; supply-chain ripple risks.

23:00 Ecosystem fix: more R&D, talent/immigration, cut red tape, govt as buyer; biggest issue = late-stage capital/pensions.

AI Corner
32:20 OpenAI “code red” on Google; distribution battle; OpenAI focusing on product vs ads/monetisation.

36:03 Winners = product + distribution + cost at scale (Google infra/TPUs advantage).

39:03 Anthropic IPO rumours (2026) debated: access to bigger pools vs “top of cycle” cynicism.

Deal of the week
41:54 Black Forest Labs — $300m at $3.25bn; image-model leader; strong ARR rumoured.

43:13 ICEYE — €200m at ~€2.5bn; SAR satellites; defence demand.

44:05 Expedition Growth Capital fundraise — €323m.

44:23 Neurocore — ~$2.5m; platform tooling for robotics ML teams.