US Housing Slowdown Amid Affordability and Inventory Challenges in 2026
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US Housing Slowdown Amid Affordability and Inventory Challenges in 2026
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In the past 48 hours, reports confirm a sluggish start to 2026 for the US housing market, with existing-home sales plunging 8.4 percent month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units, the slowest in over two years, and down 4.4 percent year-over-year.[2][4][7] Median existing-home prices hit 396,800 dollars, up 0.9 percent from January 2025, marking 31 straight months of gains, despite low supply of 1.22 million units or 3.7 months supply.[2]
Mortgage rates eased to around 6.10 percent for 30-year fixed in January, down from 6.96 percent a year ago and near three-year lows at 6.09 percent as of February 12, boosting affordability for the seventh month with NAR's index at 116.5, the best since March 2022, as wages outpace price growth.[2][8] Yet pending sales dropped 5.1 percent year-over-year to 69,060 in the four weeks ending February 8, with declines in all but five major metros, and Redfin's demand index down 6 percent monthly.[3]
Regional signs vary: Sacramento saw post-Super Bowl spikes in pending contracts on Monday and new listings on Tuesday-Wednesday, hinting at February demand up 25 percent historically before March's 31 percent listing surge, though January closed sales fell 9 percent there.[1] Nationally, harsh January weather muddied trends, with West sales dropping most despite no weather hit, per NAR's Lawrence Yun.[2][4]
Buyers hold power amid high costs and job worries, but agents note rising tours as payments fell 3.8 percent year-over-year to 2,580 dollars median, urging action before spring competition.[3] No major deals, launches, or regulations emerged in the past week; supply chains show no shifts. Compared to late 2025, Q4 saw 20 percent new-home price cuts versus 18 percent existing, signaling deeper affordability strain now.[9] Leaders like Redfin's Sue Dhillon respond by highlighting buyer leverage, warning delays risk tighter markets as rents climb.[3] Overall, the market awakens slowly, affordability aids but low inventory stalls momentum.
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