US Housing Market in Early 2026: Recalibration, Affordability Strains, and Regional Divides cover art

US Housing Market in Early 2026: Recalibration, Affordability Strains, and Regional Divides

US Housing Market in Early 2026: Recalibration, Affordability Strains, and Regional Divides

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 The US housing market as of early February 2026 shows recalibration amid easing mortgage rates but persistent affordability strains and regional divides. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.072 percent, up slightly from yesterday but down 3 basis points from a week ago and 64 basis points from a month prior, per Optimal Blue data released January 30.[1] This modest decline from late 2025 peaks near 7 percent offers some buyer relief after Federal Reserve cuts in September, October, and December 2025 failed to spark broader softening.[1]

Nationally, home price growth stalled at 1 percent year-over-year in November 2025, with Cotality highlighting cooling in Sun Belt markets like Florida and Texas versus gains in the Northeast and Midwest.[3] Single-family rent growth hit a 15-year low of 1.1 percent in November, led by Florida declines.[3] Cash buyers are securing 9 percent discounts, doubling pre-2025 levels, widening the gap for financed purchasers.[3]

In Southwest Florida, January data reveals momentum: pending sales surged 28.2 percent year-over-year to 3,276 contracts, showings per listing rose 16.7 percent, while active inventory dropped 13 percent and new listings fell 21 percent.[2] Median prices dipped 4.6 percent regionally to 419,950 dollars but remain 31 percent above January 2021 levels, signaling stabilization over 2024-2025 weakness.[2] Cape Coral led with 37.6 percent pending sales growth.[2]

Compared to prior reports, this contrasts 2025s high-rate stagnation and inventory buildup; buyer activity now echoes pre-pandemic balance in select areas, though Florida listings linger longer, like Miamis 69 days on market.[3] Leaders respond via pricing discipline—Southwest Florida sellers pricing realistically close faster—and rate buydowns on new builds.[1] No major deals, launches, or regulatory shifts emerged in the past 48 hours, but Hartford tops seller markets with 17.1 percent projected growth amid 3.3 months supply.[5] Affordability erodes as only half of metros suit median households when factoring insurance and taxes.[3] Overall, divergence defines the market, not crash or boom. (298 words)

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