US Housing Market Trends: Surging Starts, Slowing Sales Amid Mortgage Rate Fluctuations
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US Housing Market Trends: Surging Starts, Slowing Sales Amid Mortgage Rate Fluctuations
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In the past 48 hours, reports from the US Census Bureau and Redfin reveal a mixed US housing market, with new construction surging but sales activity stalling amid high mortgage rates around 6 percent.[1][2] Housing starts jumped 6.2 percent in January 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.48 million units, the highest since mid-2025, led by single-family homes at 981000 units and a 10.1 percent rise in multifamily starts.[1] This defies expectations of a winter slowdown, driven by 30-year fixed mortgage rates dipping to 6.01 percent mid-February, the lowest since September 2022, sparking a 183 percent year-over-year surge in refinance applications.[1]
Contrast this with sluggish demand: Redfin data for the four weeks ending February 15 shows pending home sales down 5.8 percent year-over-year, the biggest drop in a year, with homes taking 67 days to go under contract, longest in seven years.[2] Median sale prices rose 1.1 percent to 379176 dollars, monthly payments at 2601 dollars despite a 2.9 percent dip year-over-year, while new listings fell 3.1 percent and active listings dropped 3.2 percent.[2] NAR confirmed pending sales fell 0.8 percent month-over-month and 0.4 percent year-over-year in January.[3][4]
Compared to late 2025 gridlock from the lock-in effect and low inventory, January marks a Great Housing Reset, with starts nearing the long-term average of 1.43 million and wage growth outpacing home prices, projected flat at 0 to 1 percent this year.[1] Consumer behavior shows buyers sidelined by costs and winter weather, gaining leverage for concessions in a buyers market.[2] Builders respond by planning missing middle housing like townhomes for affordability, while FHFA monitors supply deficits amid an antitrust probe into major builders.[1]
No major deals, launches, or regulatory shifts emerged in the past week, but supply chain stability supports the construction boom. Outlook holds cautious optimism if rates stay near 6 percent.[1][5] (298 words)
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