US Housing Market Steadies Amid New Builds and Lower Rates
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US Housing Market Steadies Amid New Builds and Lower Rates
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Over the past 48 hours, as of February 18-19 2026, the US housing market shows signs of firming foundations amid steady mortgage rates and surging new construction, contrasting with sluggish existing home sales[1][2][3][4]. Housing starts for January hit 1.48 million annualized units, beating expectations of 1.34 million by 10 percent and up nearly 4 percent from December's 1.404 million, while building permits reached 1.52 million, the highest since early 2024[2][3]. This builder momentum reflects National Association of Home Builders confidence at a two-year high, driven by lower material costs and stabilizing labor, boosting homebuilder stocks and lumber futures[3].
Mortgage rates dipped to a three-year low of 6.09 percent this week, down from 6.9 percent a year ago, spurring slight refinance upticks and adjustable-rate mortgage preferences, though the lock-in effect keeps existing inventory tight at historically low levels[1][5][7][9]. National home prices rose 3.2 percent year-over-year, with inventory up 5 percent in new listings since January and active listings at 913,000 by late January, nearing pre-pandemic norms[1][5]. Yet existing sales plunged 8.4 percent month-over-month in January to 3.91 million annualized, highlighting persistent buyer caution[4].
No major deals, partnerships, or regulatory shifts emerged in the last 48 hours, but non-QM lending standards loosened per the Mortgage Credit Availability Index, aiding affordability tests[9]. Consumer behavior shifts toward builder incentives and suburban concessions, with homeowners holding properties longer at 8.6 years average versus 4.2 in 2000[1][9]. Supply chains benefit from construction acceleration, though labor shortages loom for trades like plumbers[3].
Compared to late 2025 reports of weakening jobs and higher rates, this data signals economic hardening and a soft landing, with single-family starts up 4.1 percent in December to 981,000[2][3][10]. Leaders like builders are responding by ramping permits for spring, bypassing the lock-in via new inventory to meet demand[3]. Overall, optimism builds for a robust 2026 spring despite affordability gaps.
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