"US Housing Market Enters Silent Recession: Weakened Demand and Regional Price Adjustments"
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"US Housing Market Enters Silent Recession: Weakened Demand and Regional Price Adjustments"
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About this listen
Recent data shows that even though the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.17 percent, its lowest in a year, buyer activity remains cautious. Pending home sales for the four weeks ending November 2 rose just 0.7 percent from last year, the weakest growth in four months. Homes are now taking 48 days to go under contract, a slow pace not seen since late 2019.
Prices have not collapsed, but the growth has clearly slowed. The median sale price went up 2 percent year-over-year to 392,375 dollars, but in many metros appreciation is flattening or even turning negative. Nationally, home-price gains were the lowest since 2021, with price drops most pronounced in Washington DC and Florida. In fact, the year-over-year rise for September was just 1.2 percent, while some Northeastern markets still show resilience. Inventory has climbed to its highest level since 2019, providing buyers with more options.
Supply has increased, with active listings up 6.7 percent over 12 months. However, sellers are not flooding the market and many buyers are patient or withdrawing entirely as economic uncertainty and job market fears weigh on decisions. Mortgage applications fell nearly 2 percent in the past week, underlining this hesitance. Affordability remains a crucial challenge: as of mid-2025, homeownership costs consume 47 percent of median US household income, a record share.
Housing industry leaders and builders are reacting by offering more incentives and marketing targeted at cautious buyers, but the effect has been muted. The biggest risk is concentrated in markets with weak job growth or significant price corrections, especially in Florida. While no major regulatory changes have been announced in the last 48 hours, the consensus across leading analysts is a drawn-out period of stagnating or mildly declining prices with significant regional splits. This contrasts with the price and sales surges of the pandemic era and underlines a more uncertain, buyer-driven phase for the US housing industry.
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