In this episode, we kick off our book project, "The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You", with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions.

Main topics covered:

• Why base rates are the most underused yet powerful tool in investing and life

• How to apply expectations investing and reverse engineer stock prices

• Why multiples are not valuation and how to earn the right to use shortcuts

• Understanding the paradox of skill and why luck matters more when everyone is good

• Lessons investors can apply across fields like business, sports, and personal decision making

• How humility, reference classes, and feedback loops improve judgment

• Reflections on learning, writing, and how AI tools are changing the creative process

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the idea behind the book
04:00 Michael Mauboussin on base rates and decision making
10:00 Expectations investing and reversing the valuation process
19:00 Multiples are not valuation—understanding shortcuts
28:00 The paradox of skill and why luck matters more than we think
38:00 How to apply these ideas in investing and life
45:00 Closing thoughts and audience feedback on the book project

In this special episode, Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski take you on a deep-dive mixtape journey through the best moments from their past three years of conversations with author and investor Chris Mayer. From the brutal patience required to ride out dead money periods to why the lack of a catalyst might be a feature, not a bug—this episode is packed with timeless investing wisdom. Whether you're chasing a hundred bagger or trying to hold through volatility, Mayer’s philosophy will challenge and inspire you.

🔑 Topics Covered:

• Why “dead money” is often harder than drawdowns

• The real challenge of holding long-term winners

• The myth of catalysts and the power of compounding

• How great businesses reveal their edge over time

• The emotional toll of patience—and how to cultivate it

• Aligning capital with the right investor mindset

• What Buffett’s evolution teaches us about reinvestment risk

• Why most investors can’t handle uncertainty—and how that creates opportunity

• How great investors and great CEOs think in decades, not quarters

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 Intro + Episode Setup
02:07 Dead Money vs. Drawdowns
10:00 Waiting Without a Catalyst
18:15 The Real Test of Holding
25:00 Aligning with Long-Term Capital
35:00 Buffett and Value Investing 2.0
44:00 Management and Short-Term Thinking
50:00 The True Meaning of Patience
54:18 Outro + Closing Thoughts

In this episode, Matt Zeigler and Dave Nadig revisit one of the most popular interviews on Excess Returns—our deep-dive conversation with Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning. But instead of leaning into the usual doom-and-gloom narrative, they unpack the misunderstood lessons at the heart of Howe’s generational theory.

From inflation and leadership to passive investing and community, Matt and Dave explore the deeper patterns shaping our society and markets—and why so many people miss the bigger picture.

🎙️ Topics discussed include:

• Why the Fourth Turning is more about renewal than collapse

• The misunderstood role of inflation in crisis periods

• How generational memory loss fuels leadership failure

• Why passive investing might be the ultimate Millennial move

• Gen X’s emergence as a uniquely flawed (and necessary) leadership class

• How conflict can become the incubator for lasting community

This is not a forecast—it’s a framework. And it might just change how you see the world around you.