Europe is again confronting war on its continent at a moment when old assumptions and rules about security are breaking down. Alliances feel less certain, deterrence less predictable, and responsibility more contested.

Military-first, state-centric models of security are dominating the debate. But this narrow view doesn't capture the overlapping risks shaping the world Europe now faces – from conflicts and humanitarian crises to climate stress, tech disruption and deepening trust between major powers.

Rearmament alone isn't enough. Social cohesion, energy security, resilience and political legitimacy are just as central to what security looks like in practice.

In this episode, our guests explore how security should be redefined – who bears responsibility, how risks are understood, and what must change in policies and institutions if Europe is to navigate a more complex and contested world.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Benedetta Berti, Secretary General of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly
• Ingeborg Denissen, Deputy Director of Security Policy, Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• Dora Meredith, Director, ODI Europe

Related resources

• The security we need: rebalancing military spending for a sustainable and peaceful future (Event video recording, ODI Global)
• How is Ukraine redefining global security? (Think Change podcast, ODI Global)
• Read more about ODI Europe

A year into Trump’s second term, guests examine how India, China, Russia and other big powers are recalibrating strategies in a shifting global order.

2026 has already been marked by significant geopolitical upheaval. US military intervention in Latin America points to a wider trend: the return of a world order shaped by hard power, where rules and international law are increasingly sidelined.

The international landscape is rapidly evolving. But how are other major powers responding? How is this impacting international financial markets?

This episode explores how India, China, Russia and other big powers are changing their strategies in response to this new phase of US foreign policy. Moving beyond the usual focus of what’s happening in Washington, D.C., it examines the perspectives of other key regions and how these shifts are redefining their economic interests, and defence and security agendas.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• H.E. Fatafehi Fakafānua, The Prime Minister of Tonga
• Mr. Manish Singh, Chief Investment Officer Cross Bridge Capital
• Dr Rebecca Nadin, Director of Global Risks and Resilience and The Centre for Geopolitics of Global Change at ODI Global

Related resources

• Trump’s Monroe Doctrine 2.0 redefines great power competition in the Americas - now it's Beijing's move (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• The year ahead in global risks: foresight for a world in transition 2026 (Insight, ODI Global)
• The Centre for Geopolitics of Global Change (ODI Global)
  
  
• The Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative (ODI Global)

As global leaders gather in Davos later this month amid shrinking aid budgets and hardening geopolitical priorities, development finance is being recast through the language of investment – raising urgent questions about who shapes this new model, who carries the risk, and who benefits.

Development finance is entering a period of profound transition. Traditional aid models are under strain, squeezed by fiscal pressure, political fragmentation and shifting global priorities. In their place, investment-led approaches, from impact investing and blended finance to philanthropic capital and deeper private sector engagement, are gaining prominence as the future of development.

In this episode of Think Change, we examine what this shift looks like in practice. How is capital being deployed across Africa and other emerging markets? What role do micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play in translating finance into inclusive growth? And how viable is the move from grants to risk-tolerant investment in fragile and underserved contexts?

Experts discuss where impact investing is delivering real outcomes, where expectations may be overstated, and how power, incentives and accountability are shifting as development increasingly speaks the language of capital.

As Davos conversations turn towards mobilising private finance and redefining global cooperation, the episode asks whether investment genuinely deepen development, rather than simply reshaping it in the image of existing markets.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Amit Bouri, Co-Founder and CEO, Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN)
• Neil Gregory, Senior Advisor to ODI Global's Centre for Private Finance in Development
• Dorothy Nyambi, President and CEO, Mennonite Economic Development Associates (MEDA)

Related resources

• IRIS+
• Impact Principles
• Impact Investor Survey

After a year of extraordinary upheaval, this special episode looks ahead to the forces set to shape 2026. From deep aid cuts and accelerating AI to renewed geopolitical tension, political violence and humanitarian catastrophe, guests explore what a fractured global landscape means for democracy, development and the future of international cooperation.

2025 has tested the resilience of the international system. Aid budgets have been slashed, debt pressures have mounted across low-income countries, and rapid advances in artificial intelligence have outpaced political and regulatory responses. At the same time, political violence, democratic backsliding and public dissent have intensified while humanitarian crises and genocide continue to expose the limits of existing multilateral responses.

Against this backdrop, global power is fragmenting as supply chains are being reshaped, economic nationalism is on the rise, and geopolitical competition is increasingly defining how states engage with one another.

Tune in as we explore how dynamics of technological disruption, economic stress and geopolitical realignment are redefining cooperation and what realistic shifts could help strengthen global governance and collective action as we move into 2026.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Comfort Ero, CEO, Crisis Group
• Sir Vince Cable, Former Secretary of State for Business and Trade and Distinguished Fellow, ODI Global
• Dr. Urvashi Aneja, Founder, Digital Futures Lab

Related resources

• Donors In A Post-Aid World December 2025 update
• Think Change episode 61: what trends will shape 2025?
• How geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping finance for emerging markets

After one of the most challenging years for the humanitarian system, Sudan offers both a stark warning and a source of new thinking. This episode of Think Change examines how local actors are reshaping aid around solidarity, dignity and community leadership.

Sudan’s crisis is unfolding at an extraordinarily difficult moment. Since violence escalated in April 2023, state institutions have collapsed, essential services have disappeared and millions have been displaced. Yet despite the scale of suffering, the conflict has remained one of the world’s least visible, receiving minimal political attention and limited media coverage.

But as formal systems fell away, communities themselves stepped forward. Mutual aid networks – most prominently the Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) – have grown out of Sudan’s long history of neighbourhood organising and now play a central role in protecting civilians, coordinating life-saving assistance and sustaining basic services. Operating as volunteers with scarce resources, they have become the only functioning governance structures in many areas.

At the same time, global recognition of their efforts is growing. The ERRs’ innovation and courage have earned nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize in both 2024 and 2025, highlighting not only the impact of their work but also the larger challenge they pose to international actors: to reconsider power, legitimacy and the role of civic leadership when states can no longer function.

With Sudan’s future hanging in the balance, the questions are urgent. What does genuine locally led leadership look like in a moment of institutional collapse? How can global actors support community-driven resilience without undermining it? And what might the ERRs’ example mean for the future of humanitarian action worldwide?

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Alsanosi Adam, External Communications Coordinator for the Emergency Response Rooms of Sudan
• Luka Biong Deng, Adjunct Professor at the Institute of Peace, Development and Security Studies; Former National Minister of Cabinet Affairs of Sudan & Minister in the Office of the President of South Sudan
• Denise Brown, United Nations Resident Coordinator in Sudan
• Freddie Carver, Director, Humanitarian Policy Group, ODI Global

Related resources

• From 'ego-systems' to 'ecosystems': renewing humanitarian action (Publication, ODI Global)
• ODI Global and NEAR's advisory panel on the future of humanitarian action
• ODI Global's Sudan resources hub

Online misogyny is becoming a defining feature of digital life, amplified by algorithms and enabled by platforms that fail to protect users. As violence against women intensifies across online spaces, the stakes for gender equality and for democracy itself have never been higher.

Violence online is surging at a moment when digital spaces should be becoming more inclusive. Algorithms reward outrage, platform design obscures abuse, and hostile online communities allow those who target women to organise and radicalise. As a result, violence that begins online increasingly spills into public life.

But the consequences go far beyond individual harm. Abuse aimed at women in politics is already deterring them from seeking re-election, while global progress on gender equality is slowing. With governments struggling to regulate fast-moving platforms and profit incentives working against user safety, digital spaces are becoming sites where exclusion is reproduced at scale.

With the stakes rising, the questions are pressing. What is driving this rapid escalation in online misogyny? How are design choices and political inaction enabling it? And what would it take to turn digital spaces into environments that strengthen equality rather than deepen exclusion?

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Sasha Havlicek, CEO & Founder, Institute for strategic dialogue
• Seyi Akiwowo, Author, How To Stay Safe Online and Founder 21/20 Studios
• Diana Jiménez Rodriguez, Senior Research Officer, ODI Global

Related resources

• Hidden in plain sight: how the infrastructure of social media shapes gender norms | ALIGN Platform
• Digital sexual violence against women in Mexico: role of the Olimpia Law in transforming underlying gender norms | ALIGN Platform
• Social media, violence and gender norms: the need for a new digital social contract | ALIGN Platform
• Drivers of tech-facilitated GBV in Mexico: A behavioural research study in Oaxaca and Estado of México | ALIGN Platform
• Why online safety policies and digital advocacy are essential for women’s political participation | ALIGN Platform
• Break the bias to challenge gender norms on social media | ODI Global

World leaders are heading to the Amazonian city of Belém this month for COP30, as Brazil aims to deliver the most consequential climate summit in years.

This year’s negotiations come at a difficult moment. Concerns around trade relations and national security are dominating the political landscape, whilst a resurgence of disinformation has also pushed climate to take a back seat.

But every five years, the Paris Agreement compels nations to reveal their progress and ambition. Brazil’s COP30 Presidency is expected to launch a landmark plan to mobilise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for low-income countries, while negotiators refine how to measure adaptation goals and resilience. At the same time, a rising wave of anti-environment and anti-gender movements threatens to undermine global commitments.

With the world’s biggest emitters under scrutiny, the questions are urgent. What does real success look like in Belém? Can climate ambition survive amid political headwinds? And how can global diplomacy steer the transition toward a fairer, more resilient world?

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Ehsan Masood, Bureau Chief, Africa and Middle East, Nature
• Helen Mountford, CEO, ClimateWorks Foundation
• Sinead Walsh, Principal Research Fellow ODI Global

Related resources

• ODI Global at COP30 (Resources hub, ODI Global)
• Country Platforms (Project, ODI Global)
• From Washington to Belém and beyond: a new era for climate finance (Expert comment, ODI Global)

This episode examines the shifting landscape of Palestenian statehood as recognition spreads and new peace initiatives test the future of governance and diplomacy.

Momentum around Palestinian self-determination is building. Following a landmark summit chaired by Saudi Arabia and France on the margins of last month's UN general Assembly, the UK formally recognised Palestine, with nine other countries soon following suit. At the same time, Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan for Gaza, proposing a “Board of Peace” led by Tony Blair to oversee governance, demilitarisation and reconstruction.

With recognition spreading and new peace initiatives on the table, some welcomed, others highly contested - the questions are urgent: What do these developments mean for Palestinian statehood? How can governance be structured to support stability, rights, and accountability? And what is the role of international diplomacy in shaping a just and lasting peace in the region?

Guests:

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Nimer Sultany, Reader in Public Law, SOAS University of London
• Nomi Bar-Yaacov, international negotiator, arbitrator and mediator
• Sultan Barakat, Professor in Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, Hamad Bin Khalifa University

Related resources:

• Gaza and the 'day after' – international protection for reconstruction (Expert comment, ODI Global)
• Israel-Gaza crisis (Our topics, ODI Global)
• Stop the siege, stop the starvation – political gestures won't save Gaza (Expert comment, ODI Global)
• Political economy: an antidote to outrage on Gaza (Expert comment, ODI Global)
• Three key takeaways from UNGA 80 (Expert comment, ODI Global)