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The Week That Was

The Week That Was

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 Executive SummaryThe Bitcoin market navigated a period of intense volatility and structural conflict during the first week of November 2025. A stark divergence has emerged between bearish short-term market dynamics and a strengthening long-term fundamental thesis. The price action was defined by a critical breakdown below the 200-day moving average, a dramatic test and temporary breach of the psychological $100,000 support level, and a subsequent struggle to reclaim key technical benchmarks.This price weakness was driven by a significant deleveraging cascade in the derivatives market and, most critically, a multi-billion-dollar outflow streak from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling a sharp reversal in institutional conviction. On-chain data corroborated this pressure, revealing atypical profit-taking into weakness by long-term holders, a trend described as “fatigue.”In direct opposition to this bearish sentiment, the market’s foundational pillars were significantly reinforced. A landmark $5.5 billion, 15-year infrastructure deal between Cipher Mining and Amazon Web Services validated the “AI Pivot” thesis for the mining sector, fundamentally de-risking the industry. Concurrently, global regulators in Europe and Asia advanced pragmatic frameworks designed to attract institutional capital, while corporate and grassroots Small-to-Medium Business (SMB) adoption continued to provide a silent, structural demand floor. The market is at a critical inflection point, with the immediate outlook hinging on its ability to defend the 50-week moving average on a weekly closing basis, a historically decisive test of bull market integrity.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------1. Market Dynamics: Volatility and Technical DeteriorationThe week was characterized by a severe breakdown in market structure, a flush of speculative leverage, and the establishment of critical new resistance levels. The market’s technical posture shifted from bullish to defensively bearish as it contended with the loss of long-term momentum indicators.Price Action and Key LevelsBitcoin began the week falling from a weekend rally high of $111,000 to below $108,000. This initial drop accelerated throughout the week, culminating in a volatile capitulation event that saw the price briefly breach the crucial $100,000 psychological barrier on November 5, hitting an intraday low of $98,900. The market subsequently staged several technical rebounds, driven by spot-market accumulation, settling around $103,750 by the U.S. market close on November 7.The battle for control is now defined by the following technical landscape:Critical Resistance $107,000 - $109,000 Previously the floor of a trend channel and the 200-day MA. Now serves as the primary hurdle for any bullish reversal. A “breakdown-retest” failure here would confirm bearish momentum.Macro Bull/Bear Line ~$102,970 The 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). A weekly candle close below this level has historically signaled the end of a Bitcoin bull market and is the most critical test for the immediate trend.Psychological Support $100,000 A critical zone of buy-interest, successfully defended on two occasions (June and November 2025). A sustained break below this level would validate bearish continuation patterns.Primary Bear Target $92,000 - $94,000 A confluence zone identified by multiple models: a “Bear Flag” pattern target (92,200), an unfilled CME gap (92,000), and Elliott Wave theory (94,000−96,000).Structural Support $88,000 - $88,500 The next major on-chain support floor, identified as the “Active Investor’s Realized Price.”Bearish Technical FormationsTwo significant bearish patterns have framed the technical outlook:• The Peter Brandt Megaphone: Veteran trader Peter Brandt disclosed a short position based on a “megaphone” or “broadening top” pattern, which often precedes a significant decline.• The Bear Flag: A bearish continuation pattern formed on the daily chart projects a technical target of $92,200, suggesting the recent consolidation is a pause before another move lower.Derivatives Market DeleveragingThe price declines were amplified by severe deleveraging events. Over the week, multiple liquidation cascades purged speculative excess from the system:• Nov 3: Over $420 million (some sources reported $536 million) in leveraged long positions were liquidated in 24 hours.• Nov 5: A sharper, more contained wave saw $1.7 billion in liquidations over eight hours, primarily in perpetual futures.• Nov 8: A subsequent short squeeze liquidated $347.5 million in short positions.By the end of the week, the market had completed a “leverage flush.” The Perpetual Futures Funding Rate returned to a near-neutral state, indicating that recent rebounds were driven by more stable spot demand rather than speculative leverage.2. The Flow-of-Funds Conflict: Institutional Whims and On-Chain DividesThe most pronounced ...
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