The Trust Trade: UK Precious Metals and Market Mania
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About this listen
Welcome to GoldBank Insider, the UK podcast that turns the biggest precious metals headlines into clear takeaways. If you invest in physical bullion, ETFs, or you just track the price, this episode is for you.
What happened
Gold has been repeatedly hitting fresh records and, on 29 January, reached just under $5,595 an ounce (around £4,060) before dropping sharply later in the day to about $5,250 (around £3,810).
Silver has been even more dramatic: it was below $30 (around £22) around the time “liberation day” tariffs were being prepared last April, and it has since nearly quadrupled to more than $118 (around £86), with the fastest run-up in the past month.
One strategist says the market has “all the hallmarks of a mania” and calls the moves “parabolic”.
The big driver: a re-pricing of trust
This is being framed as a rush into “safe haven” metals as global economic rules get shaken up. The surge is being linked to aggressive US policy moves, escalating geopolitical threats, and pressure on the US central bank.
A key point: markets are effectively re-pricing trust in currencies and institutions. In plain English: if people feel the rules are unstable, they reach for assets that do not depend on a promise from a government or a central bank.
Why silver is sprinting
Silver often rides gold’s momentum, but it tends to move harder because the market is smaller and more speculative. One simple behavioural reason silver is catching fire: it feels more “approachable” to retail buyers because the unit price is lower than gold.
Central banks vs retail: who is actually buying?
World Gold Council data is cited: central bank buying remained important, but was 21% lower in 2025 than the prior year, at 863 tonnes.
So the recent acceleration looks heavily driven by retail and investment flows: people buying the “safe haven” narrative, and also people chasing momentum because prices are moving.
There is even a UK-specific nod: the Royal Mint site actively encourages retail consumers to start investing in gold.
The currency angle UK investors should care about
This is not just a metals story. There is also renewed pressure on the US dollar, tied to concerns about policy stability and central bank independence.
For UK listeners, the practical point is simple: if GBP strengthens against the dollar, it can soften the move in £ terms even when the dollar gold price is screaming higher. £1 was around $1.38 on the day, up notably in a short period.
The weird part: why equities are fine
If this is a “trust” trade, why have US shares not collapsed? One explanation: US stocks have stayed strong, led by big tech and the AI boom, with the S and P 500 up 17.9% in 2025 including dividends.
So you can have a world where investors are nervous about institutions, but still optimistic about corporate earnings.
What to watch next
Dollar direction: if the dollar bounces, metals can cool fast.
Headlines risk: sudden geopolitical rumours can spike prices and then unwind the same day.
Retail frenzy signals: when everyone is talking about it, volatility tends to rise.
Gold vs silver behaviour: if gold steadies but silver keeps ripping, that is classic late-stage excitement.
UK price reality: always check the £ chart, not just the $ chart, because FX can change the story for UK buyers.
A move that goes up “parabolic” can also come down fast. If you buy, think in terms of sizing and time horizon. Metals can be a hedge, but you can still overpay in the short term.
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