With the majority now secured, Mark Carney’s Liberals can look ahead to another 3.5 years in office without going back to the polls. That is, of course, if they don’t want to go back to the polls before then.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the current polling landscape and the fallout from Monday’s byelections and what they could mean for the longevity of this Parliament. We also chat about our experience at the Liberal convention in Montreal and how it contrasted with the NDP convention in Winnipeg (as well as the CAQ convention in Drummondville). We then break down new provincial polling numbers from Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia and end with another edition of The Quiz.

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The Liberals swept all three byelections yesterday, winning as expected in University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and prevailing in a close fight with the Bloc Québécois in Terrebonne. The three wins give Mark Carney a majority government, something the Liberals have not had since 2019. Meanwhile, the Conservative vote tanked across the board and the NDP had a small moral victory with a second-place showing in one of the three contests.

We recorded this extra episode of The Numbers just after we finished our livestream late last night, so our apologies ahead of time if our hot takes are a little … under-cooked. We’ll be well-rested and back at it on Thursday with a regular episode of the podcast!

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It was rumoured to be in the offing, but on Wednesday news came of the surprising floor-crossing of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu from the Conservatives to the Liberals, putting Mark Carney’s government even closer to a majority. We started the podcast unaware of the news, but we eventually offer some hot takes on the crossing minutes after it was announced.

Still, even with Gladu the Liberals need some wins to make their majority official on Monday night in the three federal byelections being held in the two Toronto ridings of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.

Rarely are byelections so impactful. But beyond the question of whether or not the Liberals will win them, the three contests will be a gauge of where the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc stand in public opinion. Can Pierre Poilievre shake off his party’s poor polling numbers? Can Yves-François Blanchet take back Terrebonne, which was once a stronghold? And can Avi Lewis show any signs of life for his NDP?

Join us for a livestream of the byelection results on YouTube, starting at 8:30 PM ET on Monday!

We set you up for Monday’s byelections with some over/unders on this week’s (early) episode of The Numbers. We also break down some of the latest polls and discuss the final days of the CAQ’s leadership race, which comes to a close on Sunday.

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Three federal byelections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new approaches against the Liberal government as he tries to close the gap and the NDP now has a new permanent leader in Avi Lewis. Meanwhile, a new poll out of Quebec shows the provincial election in October could prove to be a toss-up.

Stuff is about to get real out there.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and where things stand as this political spring starts to heat up. Plus, we take a peak at some leaked data about how NDP members ranked their ballot on the weekend. We also chat about a new poll out of Quebec, where the provincial election slated in October is looking tougher and tougher to predict.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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Avi Lewis secured the NDP leadership in Winnipeg today, getting 56% of the vote on the first ballot. In this quick-hit episode of The Numbers, we give our initial reactions to the results and chat about where the NDP under Lewis goes from here.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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The most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make him the favourite to win the NDP crown on Sunday?

This week on The Numbers, before we both jet off to Winnipeg, we set our expectations for how the vote will unfurl this weekend. We also take a look at what some new poll numbers say about the candidates for the leadership as well as the future of the NDP. Then, we break down the new federal polls (including on views of Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast) and take a quick look at some new provincial numbers out of Manitoba and Ontario before we close with an NDP-themed Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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With some polls suggesting the Liberals are nearing 50% support while the Conservatives are slipping toward 30%, one has to wonder: has Mark Carney hit his ceiling and has Pierre Poilievre hit his floor?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polling numbers and the unprecedented scores being put up by the Liberals. We also discuss provincial polling from across the country as a new poll shows which premiers are up and which premiers are down. Then, Philippe has another Quiz.

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Mark Carney’s Liberals have a majority in sight after adding Nunavut MP Lori Idlout to their ranks. The former New Democrats has pushed the Liberals to 170 seats in the House of Commons, meaning they are only two short of a majority with three vacancies set to be filled in a trio of byelections on April 13.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss Idlout’s floor-crossing, the byelection calendar and what it all means for the Liberals and the opposition parties. Is the NDP in serious trouble? What does a majority mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership? We also chat about the latest fundraising figures from the NDP leadership contest and break down all of the new federal polls published over the last week. Then, it’s the triomphant return of The Quiz!

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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