Episodes

  • Is The Fed Ready To Capitulate Dovish?

    Is The Fed Ready To Capitulate Dovish?
    Aug 8 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the weak labor market data and the likely Fed reaction function. The duo also reflects on how you might be right on the macro idea, but market pricing at inception of your trade matters sometimes more than whether you were directionally right or wrong.
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    34 mins
  • The Tariff Mismatch Theory

    The Tariff Mismatch Theory
    Aug 1 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the sharp USD repricing and the market positioning for a mild tariff impact on the US economy - what if we get a surprising slowdown over the next few months instead?
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    32 mins
  • Carry & Options In A Trump World

    Carry & Options In A Trump World
    Jul 25 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the recent clashes between the Trump administration and the Fed, the more friendly deal-making stance on tariff deals, and how to use options when trying to capture convex moves and incorporate carry into your thinking.
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    37 mins
  • Macro Crossroads: What's Next For Markets?

    Macro Crossroads: What's Next For Markets?
    Jul 18 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the crossroads ahead of us for the economy and markets: the USD selling seems to have lost steam, and tariffs' impact on the economy won't be easy to judge for months. So, what lies ahead of us? To reach out to Alf and Brent, shoot an email at themacrotradingfloor@gmail.com
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    36 mins
  • Time For The Fed To Turn Dovish?

    Time For The Fed To Turn Dovish?
    Jun 13 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11jun25/
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    33 mins
  • Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?

    Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?
    May 16 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will the market give another free pass to US deficits, or will the bond/USD vigilantes show up this time?
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    23 mins
  • Recession Risks & Reflexivity

    Recession Risks & Reflexivity
    May 2 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and a gameplan to approach rates, FX and equity markets. To contact Alf: ping Alfonso Peccatiello on Bloomberg To contact Brent: ping Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg Podcast transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-01may25/
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    36 mins
  • Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?!

    Trillions of US Dollars To Sell?!
    Apr 25 2025
    This week, Alf and Brent focus on an obscure yet crucial component of FX flows: the hedging needs from large institutional investors. These whales own $33+ trillion of USD-denominated assets, and over the last 15 years they have systematically under-hedged their USD exposure - were they to change their mind forecasting a weaker USD, there could be trillions of US Dollars to sell. Want to chat with Alf? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg Want to chat with Brent? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg
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    32 mins