Cincinnati vs. Cleveland – Let me say this first at least we have Burrow playing the preseason this year at least some, but they added some guys who were playing well in the preseason to help out a loaded receiver unit, they recover from the mistake of letting Perine go as free agent. Then you bring in Al Golden and you have a chance as a team to help out the defense by going an extra play on offense, the pass game is the given with the Bengals, but the question for them is are they able to run the ball at all. With Perine back as the number two back it helps relieve a soft spot from last year. That and well Burrow has had a few nightmare games in Cleveland, a few years ago it was opening on the road just as they are again, but week 1 Cleveland has traditionally been bad. You have to assume internally they are thinking playoffs because even though it was a horrible beating at Houston blown out by a rookie qb but the Texans D shut them down in that game, but just like Pittsburgh who can win a playoff game? Cincinnati, because with rotating QBs we have seen Burrow put his up and try to keep up at that point. Get it live bet if you can of course and get it down to -3 or so or however it goes my pick is Bengals -5

Steelers vs Jets – Possibly an under right under here, but I’m on the Steelers just on thats how they usually perform.. unless Rodgers is a bust you win this game Steelers MONEY LINE & UNDER 38.5 is my pick.

Dolphins vs. Colts- I know the Colts are tough at home especially, but I think Tyreke Hill by not taking the Captain role is forcing others to step up and be leaders but he may have something to prove, and with the arrests everyone does. Slight road dog gimme the Phins bc you got Daniel Jones. Miami pk

49ers vs Seahawks- This should be all Niners if they are going to do anything this year. 49ers -136

Lions vs. Packers – This is another one where the matchup has been lopsided in the Lions way since Love took over at QB so we will see but I’m with the Lions +2.5

Buccaneers vs Falcons – Look up and the Falcons have won 4 of 5 vs TB and Penix is getting the hype assuming this is him at QB here. Mayfield and the Bucs never an easy out but you have to feel especially defensively they have them figured as to how they want to defend. Falcons +2

As far as betting goes there, well the 80% consensus have the birds taking victory laps as they drop doodie on the Cowboys as the 80% is on the Eagles. 94 % of the consensus on money line Eagles. I tell you this is division football and Dallas with Dak and Ceedee Lamb are there but it will be up to them because as soon as Tony Pollard went to Tennessee it hurt their offense in a crippling manner so who is gonna take those hits and run with no lead blocker? That will be what determines Dallas this year. I don’t care about consensus, and I mean Dak don’t play defense so it ain’t his fault what Green Bay came in and did. I don’t care about early consensus, I would say your better off hoping for 7.5 but I’m taking the Cowboys here to let them know Dak is 9-4 yall blew out Cooper and this is a different game. There is a potential for a MILLION points in this game.

As far as betting goes there, well the 80% consensus have the birds taking victory laps as they drop doodie on the Cowboys as the 80% is on the Eagles. 94 % of the consensus on money line Eagles. I tell you this is division football and Dallas with Dak and Ceedee Lamb are there but it will be up to them because as soon as Tony Pollard went to Tennessee it hurt their offense in a crippling manner so who is gonna take those hits and run with no lead blocker? That will be what determines Dallas this year. I don’t care about consensus, and I mean Dak don’t play defense so it ain’t his fault what Green Bay came in and did. I don’t care about early consensus, I would say your better off hoping for 7.5 but I’m taking the Cowboys here to let them know Dak is 9-4 yall blew out Cooper and this is a different game. There is a potential for a MILLION points in this game.

Dallas +7.5

The Battle for AFC West Supremacy begins in LA as Mahomes and company will see if they can even start the year out not trailing the Harbaugh led Chargers. Remember he had Collin Kaepernick in the Super Bowl? So I think just in style of play this is his best QB he has coached, but I remember as a youth Harbaugh taking these same Bolts to the big game only to see the biggest blowout ever to I believe Steve Young might’ve put 55 on em. Anyways they play this thing twice and the Bolts will win once in my opinion. So my pick vs the heavy money line consensus on the Chiefs is the Chargers +3. Its another divisional game and the more the Chiefs beat them like they did once last year they have to see how the Raiders played them and see they are more vulnerable than ever once everyone has ten years of game tape they know your first and second move. I do have to let you know the stat though, 8-2 last 10 vs. LAC, however the +3 would’ve been 2-0-1 last 3 matchups in LA for my pick LA CHARGERS +3, also out of the last 3 36 have been the most points scored so this is who makes it 20 wins the game.

Chargers +3

143

144

Boise State

South Florida

-9

+9

-6-116

+6-104

147

148

Wyoming

Akron

-9

+9

-7-109

+7-111

149

150

Ohio U

Rutgers

+10½

-10½

+15½-105

-15½-115

151

152

Nebraska

Cincinnati U

-7

+7

-6½-120

+6½+ev

155

156

Miami Ohio

Wisconsin

+17

-17

+17

-17

Boise State vs USF a CBS game and about 60 % coming in on Boise. They bring back Madsen at QB and he is facing a defense that was 119th in the nation last year.

Brown is USF first 3000 yard passer who is running their high volume offense. He gives this game a bit of confidence that USF will be able to move the ball and score some maybe.

My lean here goes to Boise on the advantage implied from last year as they were the better unit. I would recommend trying to get them at -3 or even money because we could see USF show up here and if they are ahead at some point then Boise would be in even money territory.

My Pick Boise -6

Wyoming vs Akron last years 123 vs 120th ranked offenses at 19.7 and 20.3 a game. That being said this is an espn+ game and a chance of an upset right here. For what it’s worth I’ll take the home team Zips here at +7 and if you’re looking for a money line underdog then this might be the play for you.

Akron +7

Rutgers vs Ohio with the line now up to 15.5, really if you want to wait one down on live bet it may be there or Rutgers may go down the field first drive and not relinquish the lead rest of the game 92% on the Scarlett Knights. Beware Ohio was 9-5 ATS last year and Rutgers run d was 111th both at 5.2 yards per carry, which leads us to Ohio’s 3rd down percentage at 11th in the country. Knights were 5-5 ATS a season ago so the only real likely thing is a win money line. Your playing with chance but live bet may be your best way to wait down the line here.

Rutgers -15.5

Nebraska vs Cincinnati At Arrowhead Stadium. Always the hype at Nebraska but the strength of both teams is on defense. I looked at it and consensus isn’t leading me into a lot of confidence as on paper it looks like UC would win from last years stats or at least cover. The total at 53.5 actually higher than what I thought it would be so I go UNDER here.

UNDER 53.5 Cincinnati +6.5

Miami vs Wisconsin -17, only once in history have these two met and it was a 59-0 victory. This has beat down all over it as well as low scoring game. With total sitting at 39.5 but I think this one is all Wisconsin as it better be with their O line and we’ll see what the coach has in year two.

Wisconsin -17

Early consensus on the Irish but I’m not sure I would worry about that too much… Rewind to last year, Carson Beck was at Georgia and got hurt right before the tournament in the SEC Championship game. He had to still prepare or even one more had to prepare his backup to be prepared. The question is does he give himself the same advice he gave his backup in falling short to the Irish and with that being part of his last bit at Georgia does he feel like that injury stopped Georgia from worst case scenario an epic title game if not another business as usual for the SEC Title-Machine. I would say between that preparation and the full summer to prepare for ND week 1 he may be about to raise questions as to him being better than number 1 pick Cam Ward who just departed from the “U”. A huge lead in the all-time series for the Irish but the last 6 games played in Miami have been big wins for Canes including the last Catholics vs. Convicts.

The Irish return a soon to be NFL Stars cast at Wide Receiver and Tight End.Carr the QB change but they don’t have a proven starter in a ruckus enviroment however even the Canes supporters seem to think that Carr will move the Irish vertically all day long. This Canes team has a weakness from last season they have attempted to address in the form of the transfer portal, a new D coordinator, and we saw last year some of these Canes games can get high scoring. Cal VT Louisville Duke Iowa State and Syracuse where they allowed 30 + points and with the possibilities of facing a future NFL All-Pro team in the like 6 main Irish receivers I would expect the money is on the Irish for the expectation of them going over 30 thus making Carson Beck have to figure out how much that UGA defense is different from the Miami defense. The feeling is that there is unknowns for Beck coming off injury and a completely new group of receivers. ND is loaded on defense as well but the lose Al Golden to the NFL the Defensive Coordinator, that may have some impact as honestly we don’t know if its the Canes who try to run to the mall more because the strength of the team is the offensive line. We may see stars come from no where on the Miami Receiver Corps just as we saw Cam Ward and the portal is the way Cristobal is building the program. The key may be keeping the Irish offensive on the sideline and we know Beck knows how to manage a run heavy game plan from his days at Georgia and keeping Notre Dame under their team total is where the pendulum swings, if they do that then they will have a great chance to win, inasmuch as the Irish defense is tough and has played these run heavy styles in some big games where they had more proven quarterbacks. The number for ND looks to be about 28.5-30 for their team total.

My pick here is the offensive line, the proven QB, with a full cast of new receivers, they have been replaying the U on ESPN or something because my pick is an upset or at least a cover on a small number as I feel like Miami has to want to run the ball and Beck should’ve just studied this defense last year at UGA though injured. Last 7 in the series playing in Miami went the Canes way. Expecting 30 point on the road in game one from a guy they bring up instead transfer in at QB.

ND 31 Miami 30

IO ST VS. KSTATE OVER 49.5 IO ST +134

FRESNO OV 51.5 VS KANSAS KANSAS +14 LOOK ML UPSET how many week 0 upsets the past few years? A lot, so I’m fishing and wishing but that money line underdog is where I play popcorn sometimes.

STAN V HAWAII OVER 55.5 I like the Cardinals as slight underdogs.

ECU NCSTATE UNDER 56.5

NEVADA PENNST UNDER 60

MARSHALL UGA UNDER 55

COASTAL V UVA UNDER 57.5

MISSISSIPPI UNDER 62.5

VA TECH VS SO CAR OVER 45.5

UNC VS TCU UNDER 59

TEXAS ML – NEW QB BUT AT HOME IN HORSESHOE VS. ARCH MANNING Pick of the opening week for a game I will probably be cool with watching even though betting against the Buckeyes at the SHU can be a formula for the worst three hours in sports the wrong end of a blowout. Texas has been playoff team last two years and couldn’t get it done in those big games where they had there chances. Is Arch and Texas going to win the SEC? will this game even matter to them? Ohio state loaded on defense but the new unexperienced QB at least has the home crowd. I’ll take the Longhorns here money line.

Back from trying to figure out whom is calling me by making the worst prank calls ever and then seeing who is following me because they will be spewing their perverted lies… I thought when you have a catfish you’re supposed to set the hook.

Enough about my schizophrenic hallucinations or the MK Ultra meets a vindictive bogus RICO investigation designed to end me in the mental health ward for not knowing what they thought I should. Speaking of the mental health ward, Dean Kramer has a 15.4 ERA vs. Minnesota in two appearances. They look to avoid the sweep here but face the Twins again for a three game set next week in Baltimore. I’ll take the Twins based on the pitching stat knowing that Kramer is a good pitcher and he will be seeking a better performance against a team that has had his number in two meeting thus far.

Texas has already taken the season series with the Red Sox, Leiter who has beaten the Red Sox already once in this young season and career but had a rough time out on the mound in his last start as Seattle touched him 13-1. Another young starter on the Red Sox side as Bellos is 2-1 vs. Texas in his young career. At 9 Iook at the pitching matchup and have to consider that under. With one game now of seeing Leiter how many times does it take for the team scouting and batters to get into the the Rangers starter? He only allowed 1 run in 5 innings, and with Bryan Bellos stats I lean to the under 9 here. I also think the Red Sox should win but that would still lose the season matchup as it is 4-2 Texas entering todays game.

Detroit, Detroit can they pull the double header as they have now jumped out in the Central to what some of us were waiting for and then they got some postseason clutch in last year and now they have rode the momentum. It’s a long season in Denver but they will get wins whenever they come up. Try to balance this thing where you can get a unit and get the fuck out the way or do you look at a parlay? Not for me because yesterday it was 8-6, and Detroit while they are 23-13 the Tigers are 10-10 on the road. The likely better way may be to avoid the consensus and hope the 7th win of the season is somewhere around for the Rockies? Tough call and I may jump in live bet or pass right here.

Reds are down 1-2 in the series in Atlanta. This pitching matchup has both teams with young pitching who both I was able to find one appearance, no decisions for either hurler vs. today’s opponent. The Braves may very well win and they are dangerous at any time, but Lodolo has been excellent every other start, shutting out opponents in 3 games this year, with the “bad” start coming in his last outing vs. the Nationals. With the Reds ability to hit the ball this season 6th in the NL that may very likely be the key to game as the Braves are 5-2 record in games where they don’t allow a home run. Atlanta under .500 but posting an 11-6 record where the games start at 7:20. The Reds? they are over .500 on the road at 10-9 while .500 ball is been the pace thus far for the Red legs. The consensus squarely on the Braves but with Schwellenbach at 1-3 for the year I see the Reds as having a 50% chance to win the game and paying out +175 and that is what you need to know, wager at your own risk or don’t.

This has been The Griff Report, As always best of luck and enjoy your Thursday

Duke ML 99% 43k vs Arizona – Don’t fall into following these huge money line consensus favorites. The Blue Devils are leading the tournament in margin of victory. You may look live bet here but if your headstrong on the Duke side then just lay the number where you get your bet at. Duke has been the one man show and if that show gets slowed then it happens in the tournament. 78 % of the bets on Duke laying that -9.5 points here. I would recommend waiting because Arizona isn’t going to be blown out from the tip off, they have the talent to beat Duke but those balls have to bounce their way. Duke has been a second half team like in the ACC Championship where they just take off at half time.

Bama 88% ML 17k 90% over 176 – Look for a high scoring matchup here Alabama made the run last year with the same unit of guys but this BYU bunch is no slouch and is capable of surprising some people but at -5.5 is where my pick is the Tide have been covering a lot, 70 % consensus on the Tide -5.5, play around and get a better number if you want but if this thing goes one way then its gone.

Arkansas 49 ML +205 – The most amazing thing about this spread is that Arkansas just played so well vs. St. Johns but the books are still giving all that respect to Texas Tech, who now I have laid my eyes on them in the madness and see they are playing really good. The Line Tech -5.5 and for me the pick is Arkansas as they played their game, their size is a defensive nightmare for opponents. I’ll take the points here with 54% consensus on the Razorbacks.

Florida 99%ML 51k -7 Well the Gators are now such favorites that has is 8-2 ATS neutral court, 26-10 ATS for the season, but is 0-2 ATS in the NCAA tournament. I like the momentum of the Maryland squad after the step and buzzer beater. These tournament games get tough and there are upsets no matter how many people bet the other side. I’ll take Maryland +7 however 88% on the Gators here.

Auburn 95% 35k ML – Beware this Michigan team, I was impressed with their entire finish in taking my ten bucks vs. Texas A&M. They have the size with Goldin and you have to deal with the pick and roll he is threat to score or hit the free throw line every time. We will see how Auburn handles the pressure on them to win. I’ll take the other “Big Blue” +8.5 and see how that fares.

Mississippi +148ML 45% This one is where I like to see the SEC team but this is probably an MSU win. They beat the shit outta UNC so they can play with anyone, they won at Arkansas too. 53% Michigan St -3.5

Houston 95% ML Hou -8 Its Purdue now against Houston and with this one with the extra prep time the betters are taking Houston -8. For me I’m actually hoping for an upset in this game because I’m a UK Fan. 78% on the Cougars -8, but Painter has had his teams getting better with his tournament prep for teams. I’ll take the underdog and fade the consensus again. Houston 3-5-1 ATS Neutral I’ll take Purdue +8

Kentucky 29% ML +154 – Possibly the best two game from UK this year their two wins vs. Tennessee. Can they beat them three in a row? I’ll take UK this may just be a matchup that favors the

Arkansas vs St. John’s – Calipari vs. Pitino, but this one seems like a game where Pitino would be in the white suit with red handkerchief and change it at halftime. Arkansas was a team with little concern for early season loses as the unity and cohesiveness built as the year went on. They have the size to match up with anyone, and while I did initially pick St. Johns for the Final Four, I see this game as even match weighted to the Hogs for Davis and the importance of having the best point guard on the floor. I’ll take the points and enjoy a good game, no I wouldn’t be surprised to see St. Johns cover on free throws but I’m taking the points knowing this is a heavyweight battle.

The only concern for Auburn tonight in Lexington is they only one twice this year at Rupp before that they hadn’t since 1980’s, but they have the 3 point defense. In fact the Blue Jays have Big East Defensive POY 4 years in row. With the big spread here I look at the UNDER but see the bookmaker already weighted it slightly down at 149.5. I haven’t done well this year on the opening round but there have been many distractions so don’t worry about those first days. I would expect get a better number live bet if you want Auburn or take the points if you like Creighton but I think this Auburn team finds a way to win against a dangerous team. My pick here is the UNDER and we will see the rest.

UCLA vs. Tennessee I see the total here is set for a Rick Barnes defensive classic. Couple that with Zeigler being now spent most of his life in Knoxville as the millionth year point guard. Couple that with the way the Vols play at Rupp Arena and I’ll try to get the live bet for my side play, but I think they win and cover tonight. Tennessee -5 or -220 money line and even though that could get over I like UNDER 131 as well as the SEC stamps two sweet sixteen slots tonight in Lexington.

Gonzaga v Houston – This is contrasting styles as Houston likes the defensive game but the Zags are rolling up and down the floor 2nd in points scored. Its going to be Houston not letting them get clean shots and just setting defensive position where it affects shots, I may have been the goofiest 6 ft 2 center in rec specs they ever saw in youth basketball but they still nightmares of their shots blocked into the stands and once that mentality gets in the its in their mind and they will adjust for that bringing the shooter off where is squared with his eyes on the prize. If they get the defense locked in they will win. Looking at the number they expect this to be a close game for what some consider the favorite in Houston, and I’m gonna say try to get Houston even money on live bet because the Zags are likely to be in this one. Even the outright upset has to be weighed into account because the Zags are a perineal sweet 16 team. These are both great teams from bad leagues so it’s hard to figure how they will go. I picked Houston to make it through but I’ll put Gonzaga +5 and UNDER 140.5 as my picks and its the tournament don’t be surprised if Gonzaga steals the stage as they have done year after year in Few’s tenure, both coaches over 700 wins here, I just have to take into account the Bulldogs NCAA record into factor and think they have a good shot to cover even if they lose with Houston wanting the defensive game.

BYU – Wisconsin Watched the Badgers more this year than the Cougars, but this might be a high scoring game, an alarming 90% on the over at 155.5 remember the bookie usually only gives free lunch Monday and Thursday during NFL season. A 1 point spread, pick a side if you want because I’ll leave that alone with the over as the only place I’ll look at.

Texas A&M vs. Michigan – While the “OTHER BIG BLUE” did look impressive round 1 look at those Aggie seniors and they have been through a tough SEC so they should be able to not be out “Big Schooled” by the Wolverines. I’ll take A&M -3, or money line.

Last one Drake +7.5, I have no idea really here so I just took the underdog. These aren’t teams I get my eyes on much.

As always Best of Luck

Duke UNDER 140.5 Its a new era in Chapel Hill and they are loaded with talent and looking to keep the tradition just like Bob Knight handed to Coach K, now John Scheyer is likely to be elite 8 minimum most every season. I shy away from the big spread that Duke will probably cover and take the UNDER 140.5

Florida OVER 153.5 I would have the Gators on a long road to the tournament but since they won the league tournament they may be get ahead of themselves after they blow out these first two teams. I’ll take Florida Over Team Total , OVER 153.5

U CONN -5.5- Last two years UCONN in the NCAA has been 6-0 ATS, this team a step back without top lottery picks but still beware they have literally been unbeatable the past two years.

Miss St Watched the Bulldogs a few times this year, they have seniors leaders at guard and Matthews is their leader on the court. Him being able to make a change in the game will be the difference

Alabama over Team Total, or -22- The Tide will bounce back big time after getting blown out in the second game of SEC Tournament

UK-11.5 – Three Ball is back and all signs point to a likely cover in what could be whatever these guys make it because they have an all new team from last year but no one is talking about UK and they are a 3 seed

Xavier was my side but on closer review I’ll go -OVER 160

Memphis +1.5 – This is always a tough game but I’ll take Memphis here

Akron+14.5 They run a full 9 to 10 man roster, have scored over 100 five times and looks for open 3s first, but they are undersized against a really good Arizona team. I’ll take the points.

Iowa St -15 is either the play or just lay off this game completely.

UNC-2 Consensus on Tar Heels plus the senior ball handler so these guys can go to the Final Four and lose

Marquette -4 – Another good team from the Big East, they should excel out of their league.

Vandy +165 The Commodores are always a team I route for when they aren’t playing UK. They are a danger for the outright upset or take the +4 if you think you need them