Look around the world today; there are few certainties. The global order is in a state of flux. And that means that every country is rethinking old assumptions, and even old partnerships. There’s a lot of jockeying for wriggle room; a lot of signalling to partners and rivals. And often in the media environment that we live in today, signals get taken to mean substantive or even structural shifts. Alas, sometimes a signal is simply that; a signal.

So what should we pay attention to if we want to understand the trajectory of countries and the international system? Interests, of course. But what else? What are the structural factors that students and watchers of International Relations should study?

To understand these dynamics better, in this episode of The Great Power Show, I speak to Stephen Nagy, Professor of Politics and International Studies International Christian University in Tokyo. Stephen is a critic of the snapshot analysis that permeates the media environment. He contends that instead of photo-ops and rhetoric, one should focus on structural factors like budgetary allocations and force posture. In other words, it’s not the stated but the revealed preference that matters in geopolitics.

Our conversation also focussed on the nature of US-China competition. More importantly, what is the Trump administration’s America First agenda, and how does it tie in with this great power competition? And of course, how are Japan and other countries in East Asia contending with these turbulent times?

As always, I hope you enjoy the discussion. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode; and if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, don’t hesitate to reach out to me.

Read Prof. Nagy’s piece in Japan Times: International relations analysis needs to grow up

About: The Great Power Show is a bi-weekly podcast featuring candid conversations and thought-provoking interviews with leading scholars, thinkers and practitioners on the geopolitical and geo-economic changes shaping our world.

The past eight months have been among the strangest in recent times. The Trump administration has given substance to its rhetoric on tariffs, redrawing the landscape of the world economy. There have been some deals, but the details are scant. Ambiguity, it seems, is not just a negotiating position, but also evident in outcomes. On the surface, allies and partners are seemingly being punished, while challengers and rivals are being courted. There’s a deep sense of coherence in policy.

So what is it that the Trump administration and the MAGA coalition that he rode to power truly want from the world? What is the economic order that they desire? Is there even a shared vision of the economic order America is trying to build? And behind the scenes, who is actually pulling the levers—on trade, on industrial policy, and on economic security?

To unpack all this I reached out to Peter Harrell, a leading expert on US economic statecraft. Peter is a Non-Resident Fellow at Carnegie and hosts the fantastic Security Economics podcast. Our conversation delves into the thinking driving the Trump administration’s policies on trade and economic security, the nature of the deals that the US has inked with some of its partners and allies, how Washington is recalibrating its China strategy, and what all of this means for India and the global economic order.

As always, I hope you enjoy the conversation. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode. And if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, feel free to reach out to me on my email.

About: The Great Power Show is a bi-weekly podcast featuring candid conversations and thought-provoking interviews with leading scholars, thinkers and practitioners on the geopolitical and geo-economic changes shaping our world.

At the beginning of 2025, if you asked someone in New Delhi, you probably would have heard a response of cautious optimism. India seemed well-positioned to deal with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trade talks were likely to be difficult, but there was a sense of possibility. The strategic logic of the relationship, one assumed, was robust enough to ensure close engagement.

But today, the relationship feels deeply strained. We’ve arrived at an odd inflection point, one where deep strategic convergence coexists with growing political friction. There’s a bitterness in the air that hasn’t been seen for a long, long time.

To make sense of this moment, and to step back and look at the bigger picture of India’s place in the world, I reached out to someone who knows the craft of diplomacy inside out. Nirupama Menon Rao has had a remarkable career: she has served as India’s ambassador to both the United States and China, and high commissioner to Sri Lanka. She was also only the second woman ever to hold the post of India’s Foreign Secretary.

This is a wide-ranging conversation, from the personal to the geopolitical, from Washington and Beijing to New Delhi. We dig into the challenges and opportunities in India–US relations today, the balancing act with China and Russia. We also zoom out further, to ask: Are we truly in a new era of great power competition between the US and China? Or is this turbulence the messy reality of multipolarity?

Ambassador Rao offers an insightful and poetic take on the world today, comparing it to a revolt in the Orchestra. The conductor has lost some authority. The concertmaster is challenging him for leadership. And the percussion section is drumming its own beat. So, how does one navigate this environment?

As always, I hope you enjoy the conversation. Please like, share, subscribe and rate the episode. And if you’d like to support the show or the work I do, feel free to reach out to me on my email.

About: The Great Power Show is a bi-weekly podcast featuring candid conversations and thought-provoking interviews with leading scholars, thinkers and practitioners on the geopolitical and geo-economic changes shaping our world.