On the surface, the economy looks stable. The stock market is holding up, inflation appears under control, and official messaging says things are fine.

But when you talk directly with small business owners, especially in restaurants and hospitality, a very different reality emerges.

In this episode, I share real conversations with restaurant owners and operators and explain why this sector is already experiencing recession-like conditions, even if the headlines are not acknowledging it yet.

We discuss

Why most restaurants are barely breaking even or losing money
How rising labor, insurance, utilities, rent, and food costs destroyed margins
Why consumer spending is slowing even as prices remain high
How post-pandemic demand turned into a spending hangover
Why businesses can no longer raise prices without losing customers
What this reveals about small businesses beyond restaurants
Why this matters for housing, real estate, interest rates, and the broader economy
Why staying in neutral is risky and how rate cuts could change the outlook

Restaurant margins were always thin, and the combination of higher costs and softer demand has pushed many small businesses to the edge. This is not just a restaurant issue. It is a small business issue with broader economic consequences.

If you want to understand what is happening beneath the surface of the economy and why official narratives often miss early warning signs, this is an important conversation to hear.