Episodes

  • Ask the ECB Forum: defence, tariffs and AI – insights from top experts

    Ask the ECB Forum: defence, tariffs and AI – insights from top experts
    Jul 9 2025
    Can an increase in defence spending affect investments in green energy and digital infrastructure? What do US tariff threats mean for the ECB? How does the ECB support smaller countries in the Eurosystem? And is AI an opportunity or a risk for the financial future? In the last episode of our Sintra series, our host Stefania Secola takes us on a walk around the ECB Forum and gets top experts to answer your questions. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 9 July 2025 and recorded during the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra between 30 June and 2 July 2025. In this episode: 02:05 Defence spending Can an increase in defence spending affect investments in green energy and digital infrastructure? 08:08 Tariffs How do US tariff threats affect the economy? What do they mean for the ECB? And what are the opportunities for Europe? 14:14 Smaller vs. bigger economies in the Eurosystem Does the ECB prioritise bigger economies over smaller ones? Do smaller countries, such as Slovenia, benefit from the ECB’s monetary policy? 18:55 Artificial intelligence Is AI an opportunity or a risk for the financial future? Further readings: Gensler, G., Johnson, S., Panizza, U. and Weder di Mauro, B.: The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment https://cepr.org/publications/books-and-reports/economic-consequences-second-trump-administration-preliminary The ECB Podcast: AI: economic game changer or job taker? https://soundcloud.com/europeancentralbank/ai-economic-game-changer-or-job-taker ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/
    Show More Show Less
    22 mins
  • Challenges and opportunities: what lies ahead for the world economy?

    Challenges and opportunities: what lies ahead for the world economy?
    Jul 4 2025
    Tariffs and geopolitical conflicts have created uncertainty around the world. But how does the new trade environment affect inflation and the economy? How can central banks adapt? And what is the potential impact on the dominance of the US dollar ? In the third episode of our special Sintra series of the ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon talks to London School of Economics Professor Silvana Tenreyro. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 4 July 2025 and recorded on 1 July 2025. In this episode: 01:30 How is the world economy doing? What developments are having an impact on our economy today? And what uncertainties are arising from tariffs, trade fragmentation and armed conflicts in different parts of the world? 03:30 Tariffs, trade fragmentation and the economy How can trade tariffs and fragmentation affect economic growth and inflation in the euro area and beyond? 06:25 How are prices changing? How are prices changing in different countries? Will tariffs cause prices in the United States to rise, and those in Asia and Europe to fall? And why? 07:55 Lessons for central banks Given the extremely high level of uncertainty, what lessons from past shocks can central banks apply in the future? Why do we need clearly defined frameworks? And what role do governments play? 09:55 How can governments prepare for potential shocks? Investing in technologies that are difficult to substitute, diversifying energy sources and creating buffers for critical inputs – why it’s crucial that governments have a strategy to withstand various shocks. 12:05 What is a dominant currency? When is a currency considered internationally “dominant”? And what dominant currencies have there been in the past? 13:40 Dollar dominance and monetary policy transmission Does dollar dominance in international trade transactions reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy? 17:30 The future of dollar dominance How will the dominance of the US dollar develop in the future? Is its role as a primary reserve currency at risk due to the Trump Administration’s policies? 19:10 What keeps you up at night? What happens to our economy if there is a sudden shortage of a certain input? What impact will AI have if it remains largely unregulated? And what do stablecoins and digital currencies mean for our economy? 21:00 Our guest’s hot tip Silvana shares her hot tip with our listeners. Further readings: Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro: Dollar dominance and the transmission of monetary policy https://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/dominant_currency.pdf Sintra Series episode 1/4: Price stability in times of change https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod250702_episode110.en.html Sintra Series episode 2/4: Adapting to change: Ensuring price stability in a new geopolitical era https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod250625_episode109.en.html Silvana’s hot tip I’m still here/Ainda estou aqui ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/
    Show More Show Less
    21 mins
  • Price Stability in Times of Change

    Price Stability in Times of Change
    Jul 2 2025
    President Christine Lagarde sat down with central bank heads from the United States, hte United Kindgdom, South Korea, and Japan at this year's ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. They discuss the steps they've taken to fight inflation and explioe the challenges and opportunities ahead. Recorded on 1 July 2025 and published on 2 July 2025 Further reading: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250630_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html European Central Bank: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Central Bank Supervision: https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
    Show More Show Less
    1 hr and 1 min
  • Adapting to change: Ensuring price stability in a new geopolitical era

    Adapting to change: Ensuring price stability in a new geopolitical era
    Jun 25 2025
    How does geopolitical uncertainty affect inflation? How do we keep monetary policy fit for purpose in a rapidly changing world? And what are the main topics at this year’s ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal? In the first episode of our special Sintra series for The ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon discusses all these questions and more with Chief Economist and Executive Board member, Philip R. Lane. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 25 June 2025 and recorded on 16 June 2025. In this episode: 01:28 The ECB Governing Council lowered key interest rates to 2%. What was the motivation behind the decision? 04:30 How do we ensure that risks and uncertainties are integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process? What is our baseline? What factors need to be taken into account? 06:44 Alternative scenarios in the latest projections Why do we communicate our “what if” scenarios? 08:11 Meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach Why do we follow this approach? 09:50 Strategy review How can we make sure our strategy is up to date? 12:02 High-level uncertainty How do we factor heightened uncertainty in our strategy? 13:50 ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal What is the ECB Forum and what’s behind it? What’s the goal of the Forum? What’s Philip R. Lane looking forward to? 16:53 Our guest’s hot tip Philip R. Lane shares his hot tip. Programme of ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250630_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html Ken Rogoff "Our dollar, your problem" https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/ ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu ECB Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
    Show More Show Less
    19 mins
  • President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 5 June 2025

    President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 5 June 2025
    Jun 5 2025
    Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect pri¬ces to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_june.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250605~f00a36ef2b.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp250605~3b5f67d007.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds250605~dc79b630e3.en.pdf?1ae87c3b33214537469188411c6fec52 Macroeconomic projections, 5 June 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202506_eurosystemstaff~16a68fbaf4.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html Published and recorded during our press conference on 5 June 2025 #MonetaryPolicy #EuropeanCentralBank #ChristineLagarde #Finance #FinancialConditions #Inflation #EconomicActivity #EconomicOutlook #PressConference #Banking #CentralBanking #Podcast #Economics #EU #Europe #ECB
    Show More Show Less
    18 mins
  • Trade, tensions, tariffs... and a whole world of uncertainty

    Trade, tensions, tariffs... and a whole world of uncertainty
    May 22 2025
    We live in an increasingly uncertain world. But what are the economic and financial implications of such turbulent times? What does it mean for Europe’s banking and non-bank sectors, companies, households, and government finances? And how can Europe navigate such volatility? Our host Paul Gordon discusses these questions and more with expert John Fell in the latest episode of The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 22 May 2025 and recorded on 16 May 2025. In this episode: 01:50 Geopolitical developments and global financial imbalances How did markets react to the high level of uncertainty? 05:10 Safe havens What are safe havens? What happened to US government bonds? 09:08 Europe’s reaction Can Europe afford the increased spending in security and defense? What happens to other structural challenges? 13:18 Potential unexpected consequences What positive benefits can defence spending bring? Can it boost growth? What are the solutions to instabilities that might bring? 16:33 Our guest’s hot tip John shares his hot tip with our listeners. Further readings: Financial Stability Review, May 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Our guest’s hot tip: When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein https://www.amazon.de/-/en/When-Genius-Failed-Long-Term-Management/dp/0375758259 European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu
    Show More Show Less
    18 mins
  • President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 17 April 2025

    President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 17 April 2025
    Apr 17 2025
    Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 17 April 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_april.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 17 April 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250417~091c625eb6.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 17 April 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp250417~42727d0735.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 17 April 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds250417~e613e58d41.en.pdf?95a8c391ee55936072302d86e709bf0e European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html You can also listen on all major podcast platforms. Published and recorded during our press conference on 17 April 2025 #MonetaryPolicy #EuropeanCentralBank #ChristineLagarde #Finance #FinancialConditions #Inflation #EconomicActivity #EconomicOutlook #PressConference #Banking #CentralBanking #Podcast #Economics #EU #Europe #ECB
    Show More Show Less
    15 mins
  • AI: economic game changer or job taker?

    AI: economic game changer or job taker?
    Apr 9 2025
    Will AI take our jobs? Does AI boost economic productivity? Is it a choice of going green or going digital? Our host Paul Gordon talks to ECB colleagues António Dias da Silva, Guzmán González-Torres Fernández and Miles Parker to find out what AI means for the economy, especially for productivity, job prospects and energy supply. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 9 April 2025 and recorded on 3 April 2025. In this episode: 00:55 Is AI replacing jobs? Can AI ever replace jobs in journalism or film-making? Will AI be our next podcast host? 02:14 Is AI a job changer? How are new technologies changing our jobs? 04:00 Age, education and gender Who uses AI and how do people feel about it? Does AI usage differ based on age, education and gender? 06:57 Sectors with the highest AI usage Which sectors use AI the most? What’s behind the different attitudes towards AI in different areas of the economy? 09:00 Corporate usage of AI What do companies need to effectively use AI? 11:02 How does AI affect productivity? How can AI be put to good use? To what extent can Europe’s economy grow with current AI usage? Is the world ready for AI? 13:29 The role of policymakers How can policymakers make it easier for companies to use AI? 15:10 AI and energy consumption How much energy does AI need? How much energy does ChatGPT use for one search? Will energy demand go up or down? 17:15 Go green or go digital? Do we need to choose or does AI allow both? How could AI help the green transition? 19:10 Obstacles What are the roadblocks to the green and digital transitions? What investment is needed to make these transitions a success? What else needs to be done? 21:50 Our guests’ hot tips António, Guzmán and Miles share their hot tips with our listeners. Further reading: The ECB Blog: AI adoption and employment prospects https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250321~6af1337b6b.en.html The ECB Blog: AI versus green: clash of the transitions? https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250325~ed12b0ff35.en.html The ECB Blog: AI can boost productivity – if firms use it https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250328~60c0a587f7.en.html Hot tip from António: Tech-focused podcast Babbage by The Economist https://www.economist.com/audio/podcasts/babbage Hot tip from Guzmán: The ECB recent conference on “The transformative power of AI: economic implications and challenges” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250401_transformative_power_of_ai.en.html Hot tip from Miles: International Energy Agency website https://www.iea.org/ ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu ECB Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
    Show More Show Less
    24 mins