Credit markets are rallying but there’s elevated risk of some companies not repaying debt, according to the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “There’s a sense of complacency,” Collin Martin, the firm’s fixed income strategist, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Himanshu Bakshi in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Defaults are probably going to stay high,” says Martin, noting low interest coverage ratios among the weakest borrowers. Martin and Bakshi also discuss private credit risk, floating-rate and preferred debt opportunities, and the impact of trade wars on consumer confidence.

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Private credit may be hot, but it isn’t for all investors and doesn’t do better than traded junk debt, according to Dimensional Fund Advisors, which manages $790 billion in assets. “There is no outperformance relative to high-yield public bonds,” Savina Rizova, the firm’s co-chief investment officer and global head of research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Jean-Yves Coupin in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “Some people might get disappointed with some of the attributes of private credit,” says Rizova, highlighting better liquidity and transparency in public markets. Rizova and Coupin also discuss Dimensional’s expansion into mortgage-backed securities, its active exchange-traded fund strategy and the firm’s overall credit exposure and positioning.

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Tariffs are inflicting economic damage that will force more companies to default on their debt, according to Polus Capital Management. “We do have a more substantial book of single name, high-yield credit shorts,” Robert Dafforn, the firm’s chief investment officer for opportunistic credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tim Riminton in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “We think about it as the foothills before the mountain as you go on the slow ascent, and then it kind of picks up more broadly after that,” says Dafforn, referring to an increase in delinquency amid high interest rates and slowing growth. The CIO of Polus also discusses trouble brewing in the chemicals, building materials, packaging and consumer sectors, as well as “equity-like returns” for distressed-debt investors.

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Yield-hungry credit investors are increasingly seeking longer-dated corporate debt, just as supply is evaporating, according to Barclays. “It’s problematic,” Meghan Graper, the firm’s global head of debt capital markets, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “I worry — can we source enough assets to appeal to where the bid is gravitating, and that’s out the curve.” Graper and Kakuda also discuss the growth of private credit, value in financial sector debt, hybrid issuance, the Trump put and league table rankings for global bond underwriters.

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Property markets are headed for trouble as the US economy slows and interest rates stay high, according to Hines, the global real estate investment manager.“We will probably see a bigger wave of assets in distress,” Alfonso Munk, who runs the firm’s debt business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “What I’m worried about is the operating distress if we get into economic headwinds.” Munk and Alamutu also discuss investment opportunities and risks by property type, region and country, as well as the impact of the trade war on real estate markets worldwide.

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More corporate debt will plunge into distress when the US economy tanks, Marty Fridson, chief executive officer of Fridson Vision High Yield Strategy. “I have high confidence that we will get back to 1,000 basis points on the high-yield index as a whole at the worst point of the next recession,” the veteran credit strategist tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Spencer Cutter in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Corporate bonds trading at 1,000 basis points over Treasuries are usually seen by markets as being in distress, with a high likelihood of default. Fridson and Cutter also discuss energy sector bond opportunities, corporate bond default rates, ratings trends, the Federal Reserve put and liability management.

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Risky corporate debt markets have room to fall further to reflect the damage of ongoing trade wars, according to BlackRock, the $11.6 trillion money manager. “We’re likely to see spreads widen from here as we see further deterioration in risk assets,” Mitch Garfin, the firm’s co-head of leveraged finance, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “If this uncertainty continues for another quarter, two quarters, three quarters — that could lead to a more significant downturn.” Garfin and Schiffman also discuss private credit relative value, distressed exchanges, technology sector opportunities, portfolio trading and auto sector risk.

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Tariff chaos has tossed retailers into a crisis similar to Covid in 2020, leaving them unable to plan ahead, according to AlixPartners, the financial advisory and global consulting firm. “It’s a little crazy and retailers are canceling orders,” Holly Etlin, a partner at the firm and restructuring veteran, tells Bloomberg News’ Reshmi Basu and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Stephen Flynn in the latest Credit Edge podcast. There’s a “real crisis, everybody going nuts,” she added, referring to pricing, inventory and shipping decisions that retailers are trying to make. Etlin also discusses the impact of elevated bankruptcy costs, the outlook for more coercive liability management exercises, how retailers are using asset-based loans as a lifeline and the turnaround of Tailored Brands.

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