Nick & Dan are joined by Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC, who authored the recent report on the mortgage renewal wave.

Over 1.5 million Canadians have already renewed at higher rates, with another million coming. While Toronto arrears have quadrupled, nationally only 0.25% of mortgages are in arrears.

• 1.5 million households renewed, 1 million more coming — the largest renewal wave in modern Canadian history⁠⁠​
• Toronto and Vancouver are most stressed, particularly pandemic buyers, but most Canadian homeowners are still paying⁠⁠​
• Despite rising arrears, only 0.25% of mortgages nationally are in arrears — this isn't a nationwide housing collapse⁠⁠

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In this news episode, Nick & Dan cover major challenges in Ontario's housing market, including regulatory enforcement against brokerages, inconsistent multiplex approvals despite new zoning policies, a new RBC-REALTOR partnership, and a severe collapse in residential construction threatening the provincial economy.

• RECO Trust Account Scandal: Save Max brokerages had $2.7 million unlawfully taken from trust accounts for operating expenses, resulting in suspensions and account freezes — the second major trust breach after iPro's $10.5 million scandal.
• Multiplex Policy Inconsistency: Toronto's "gentle intensification" policy shows conflicting results, one six-storey project on Islington got approved while a similar Pharmacy Avenue project was rejected over parking and "neighbourhood character," despite both streets being designated for small apartment buildings.
• Construction Crisis: Ontario's residential construction is collapsing with housing starts down 58% in Toronto, single-family sales down 71% in the GTHA, and 2025 marking the worst year for GTA new home sales in 45 years, threatening to shrink the provincial economy by 1.5-2.5% in 2026.

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Canada's rental market in Q1 2026, revealing a major shift from growth to stagnation. The main takeaway is that rent growth has essentially stopped nationwide, with some cities experiencing declines. Join us as we go through the Yardi Rental Report

• Rent growth has flatlined: National rent growth is only 3.2% year-over-year (in-place rents) and new lease rents are up just 0.7%, with cities like Calgary and Toronto seeing negative growth on new leases.
• Vacancies at 5-year highs: National vacancy hit 4.5%, with Calgary at 6.1% and turnover exceeding 40% in some Western markets, giving renters unprecedented leverage.
• Operating costs squeezing margins: Average expenses are $8,000 per unit annually (highest in Ontario at $8,822), making it harder for landlords to maintain profitability as rent growth stalls.

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Nick & Dan do a comprehensive deep dive on Alberta's real estate market, part of "The Canadian Re Tour" podcast mini-series. We covers Alberta's economic fundamentals, major cities (Calgary and Edmonton), and mid-sized markets, with detailed data on home prices, rents, vacancy rates, and cap rates as of December 2025.

• Alberta has Canada's highest GDP per capita at ~$96,544, strong wages, and no rent control, making it attractive for cashflow-focused real estate investors.
• Calgary ($615,986 avg price) is more expensive and corporate-focused with 102 head offices, while Edmonton ($454,981 avg price) remains Canada's most affordable major citywith stable government employment.
• Vacancy rates have risen significantly in 2025—Calgary approaching 6%and Edmonton at 3.8%—due to a record 20,000 rental unit starts, helping stabilize the market after an extremely tight 2023.

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A January 2026 Senate report called housing "Out of Reach." We look at the report and cover the rental market squeeze, development charges, and regulatory delays that are driving up housing costs across Canada

• Toronto housing fees are staggering: New homes in Toronto carry approximately $200,000 in municipal fees, compared to under $10,000 in cities like Moncton or Charlottetown⁠⁠.
• Approval timelines are crippling supply: It takes an average of 11 years to get a new housing development approved and built from start to finish in some Canadian cities⁠⁠.
• Rental market reforms are coming: The Senate report recommends incentivizing rental construction through tax breaks, preserving affordable units, and potentially restricting institutional investors from buying up residential rentals⁠

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BMO economist Robert Kavcic forecasts a "long and slow grind" toward housing affordability in Canada⁠⁠. Prices have fallen 17% from their 2022 peak, but remain unaffordable for many⁠⁠. Investors have exited the market, calling real estate "dead money" compared to equities⁠⁠, and Kavcic predicts prices will continue to decline, especially in the condo and rental segments⁠⁠.

• The current market favors buyers, with sellers more likely to lower prices than buyers are to pay more⁠⁠​GTA prices still falling
• Detached houses dropped 8% year-over-year and condos fell 3.8% in the Greater Toronto Area⁠⁠​Rental market concerns
• Pre-construction condo buyers facing higher mortgage rates are forced to rent instead of sell, which reinforces bearish rental market outlook⁠

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Trump's proposed ban on corporate landlords buying single-family homes with Canada's MLI Select program, arguing that financial incentives work better than bans for directing institutional capital toward building new housing supply.

• Policy Contrast: Trump's ban excludes new construction, potentially pushing institutional investors toward building rather than buying existing homes—inadvertently achieving what Canada's MLI Select program does deliberately through financing incentives
• MLI Select Mechanics: Canada's program offers 50-year amortizations and 95% financing for multi-family projects that score points for affordability, energy efficiency, and accessibility—making new construction more attractive than competing for existing homes
• Incentives vs. Bans: The fundamental lesson is that redirecting institutional capital through attractive financing works better than prohibition—creating alignment between investor profit motives and public policy goals without demonizing capital

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In this news episode we discuss how inflation-adjusted home prices have fallen back to 2017 levels, despite appearing stable nominally. Housing starts hit record numbers in 2025 but momentum is fading, with the Bank of Canada holding rates at 2.25%ahead of its January 28th decision. Meanwhile, inflation rose to 2.4% in December, with renters experiencing 4.9% annual rent growth while homeowners saw just 1.3% inflation.

• Real estate has lost real value: While home prices dropped only 4% year-over-year, inflation-adjusted prices are back to 2017 levels, with weak sales driven more by buyer hesitation than affordability.
• Housing construction momentum is fading: Despite 2025 being the fifth-best year for housing starts, the six-month average has been declining since September, with economic uncertainty pushing builders toward smaller projects.
• Renters face much higher inflation than homeowners: Renters experienced 4.9% annual rent growth in December—the fourth-largest jump since 1988—while homeowners saw only 1.3% inflation.

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