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Sugar's Sweet Surrender: Brazil's Bumper Crop Sours Prices

Sugar's Sweet Surrender: Brazil's Bumper Crop Sours Prices

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello and welcome back to the Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. Thanks for tuning in. Whether you are in the kitchen, trading desk, or driving home, I am here to help you make sense of what’s happening in the world of sugar prices and everything that moves this sweet commodity.

Today is Monday, November third, twenty twenty-five, and let’s jump right into the latest on sugar prices and market news. As we kick off the week, sugar is trading at around fourteen point four two cents per pound. According to Trading Economics, that is down slightly by just zero point zero six percent from the previous day. If you follow sugar price trends, you know this is quite a downturn compared to recent months. In fact, sugar prices have fallen over fourteen percent in the past month and are down over thirty-four percent from where they were this time last year. Raw sugar futures on ICE are also showing a bit of a rebound today, picking up one point two percent to trade at about fourteen point six one cents per pound after last week’s dip to a five-year low. Market watchers are noting a slight recovery, but overall, the trend remains soft as supplies continue to swell thanks to record harvests.

So, what is behind these moves? The big story is supply. Brazil, the world’s number one sugar producer and exporter, has ramped up its sugar output for the twenty twenty-five and twenty twenty-six seasons. For the current harvest, Brazil is on track to produce over forty million tons, and projections for next year climb even higher, all the way up to forty-four million tons. According to analysts from Datagro and BMI Group, this means we are likely heading into a global sugar surplus, which is putting plenty of downward pressure on prices globally.

It is not just Brazil, either. India and Thailand have had excellent harvests, thanks in large part to good monsoon rains and expanded plantations. This combination of record supplies from several top producers is reshaping the sugar landscape—giving consumers some relief, but making things tough for some growers and traders.

Another trend to keep an eye on is how changes in biofuel markets impact sugar pricing. In Brazil, more mills are shifting from sugarcane ethanol to corn-based ethanol, which is even cheaper to produce. That leaves more sugarcane to go straight into sugar production, increasing supplies even more and keeping prices under pressure.

Let’s talk quickly about white sugar. Prices remain in a narrow range, with December ICE white sugar futures settling at about four hundred twenty-three dollars per ton. They have nudged up slightly after recent declines, thanks in part to bargain buying, though the broader sentiment is bearish due to this oversupply theme.

So, what does all of this mean for you, whether you are a baker, a sweet-tooth or a trader? With supplies this ample and a projected surplus over the next year, prices are likely to remain soft through the end of the quarter. If you are planning large sugar purchases or hedging your exposure, now could be a good time to lock in prices—or at least keep a close eye on the major producers’ harvest reports, since any change from Brazil, India, or Thailand could tip the scales.

My tip of the day? When global inventories are on the rise and prices are near a five-year low, flexibility is your friend. Whether you are buying for business or personal use, keep tabs on the production reports from Brazil and monitor weather developments in key sugar-producing regions. Sharp changes in weather or policy can still shake things up quickly in this market.

That is all for today’s update on the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, and I hope you found this market rundown useful, whether you trade, bake, or just enjoy a sweet treat. Be sure to subscribe and tune in tomorrow for the latest news, trends, and practical tips on navigating the world of sugar. Thanks for listening, and stay sweet!

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