Bill Wiseman leads McKinsey’s Global Semiconductor Practice and founded its Taipei Design Lab. He brings a rare mix of semiconductor engineering and national security experience to one question: what happens if Taiwan cannot ship silicon. We unpack why Taiwan risk is bigger than “leading edge logic” including NOR flash, DRAM, advanced packaging, and the electronics manufacturing ecosystem.

Bill explains why this is a 15 year-plus problem, why markets struggle to price it, and why collective action fails without coordination. We then shift to export controls and coalition durability, why ASML and the Netherlands matter, and how corporate incentives differ for commodity components vs ecosystem businesses.

Finally, we get into the messy reality of IP leakage, cyber theft, and why quantum readiness may be the most practical near-term move, plus what the CHIPS Act should be measured on: HBM, packaging, talent, power, and grid margin.

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This and all episodes are enhanced with lots of useful links and transcripts which you can read at https://typhoonbearing.substack.com/p/semiconductors-and-national-security

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Timestamps:

(00:17) Taiwan disruption, global shock

(03:12) Markets, pricing, game theory

(07:05) Taiwan politics, silicon shield

(10:04) Board plans, inventory reality

(17:08) Export controls, coalition durability

(25:38) IP theft, quantum risk

(34:35) CHIPS Act success metrics

(46:01) Security needs beyond leading edge

(55:11) Recommendations and closing

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