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This is Market Pulse — Tuesday's Numbers

Oil Markets
• WTI Crude: $68.37 (up 1.2%)
• Brent: $72.09 (up 1.1%)
• WTI-Brent spread: $3.72
• American Petroleum Institute crude inventory draw: 4.7 million barrels (larger than expected 1.8 million)
• OPEC Plus delayed production increase to April 2026, maintaining cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day
• Middle East tensions remain elevated, Red Sea shipping disrupted
• Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent at $76 in 2026, JPMorgan at $70

Natural Gas Markets
• Henry Hub: $3.42 (up 2.1%)
• Prices pulled back from recent highs as milder weather forecasts reduced heating demand
• Market remains supported by record LNG exports
• U.S. exported 11.2 million metric tons in November, Europe absorbing 68%
• Storage 5% below five-year average
• Bank of America projects $3.75 per million British thermal units in Q1 2026

Real Estate Markets
• Existing home sales fell 4.8% in November to 4.15 million units
• Median price rose 4.7% year-over-year to $406,100
• Inventory tight at 1.37 million homes (3.8-month supply)
• Mortgage rates rose to 6.72%, reducing affordability
• Office vacancy hit record 18.7%
• Industrial real estate remains strong, driven by e-commerce demand

Credit Markets
• SOFR: 4.57% on December 8 (up from 4.54%)
• Fed expected to cut rates by 25 basis points Wednesday, bringing federal funds rate to 4.25-4.50%
• Corporate bond issuance remains strong, spreads widening slightly
• Senior secured loans with SOFR plus 650 basis points and LTV under 65% remain attractive

Stock Markets
• S&P 500: up 0.8% to 6,074 (extending gains as investors anticipate Fed rate cut)
• Nasdaq: up 1.2% (led by technology stocks)
• Apple: up 2.1%
• Microsoft: up 1.8%
• Nvidia: up 3.2% on strong AI chip demand
• Dow Jones: up 0.5% to 44,156
• Energy stocks outperformed: ExxonMobil up 2.4%, Chevron up 1.9% on higher oil prices

Bottom Line
• Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. WTI up 1.2% to $68.37, Brent up 1.1% to $72.09. API draw 4.7 million barrels. OPEC Plus cuts maintained.
• Gas: Up 2.1% to $3.42. Record LNG exports, storage below average.
• Real Estate: Sales down 4.8%, median price $406,100, mortgage rates 6.72%.
• Credit: SOFR at 4.57%. Fed cut expected Wednesday.
• Stocks: S&P 500 up 0.8% to 6,074, Nasdaq up 1.2%, tech and energy leading.

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