Israel Today: Ongoing War Report - Update from 2026-01-13 at 04:05 cover art

Israel Today: Ongoing War Report - Update from 2026-01-13 at 04:05

Israel Today: Ongoing War Report - Update from 2026-01-13 at 04:05

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 HEADLINESHamas reshapes leadership with 50-member ShuraIran protests threaten regime stability with crackdownUS pursues diplomacy while imposing Iran tariffThe time is now 11:00 PM in New York, I'm Noa Levi and this is the latest Israel Today: Ongoing War Report.This is the 11:00 PM update on the Middle East and related developments.Hamas is moving to rebuild its leadership after the Gaza war, with internal elections planned for the early months of 2026. The process centers on a new 50-member Shura Council, which will elect the 18-member political bureau and its chief, the overall leader of the movement. Two names have emerged as frontrunners for the bureau: Khalil al-Hayya, a Gaza native and longtime Hamas negotiator, and Khaled Mashaal, who led the bureau from 2004 to 2017 and has spent time outside Gaza. Hayya is viewed as closely aligned with Iran and a protracted line of armed resistance, while Mashaal is seen as closer to Qatar and as favoring moves toward negotiated compromises over the occupation in Gaza. The leadership renewal comes as international powers press Hamas to disarm and to shape Gaza’s future governance, even as the territory remains under Israeli control in many areas and its population confronts severe humanitarian hardship after years of conflict. Within Hamas, insiders say the timing of the bureau election remains contingent on on-the-ground conditions. The group has already tapped a five-member interim leadership based in Qatar after a series of changes in its top ranks, and former Hamas leaders who were once in line to head the organization — including Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar — have been killed in past years, leaving the current process to set a course for a new generation. Analysts note the outcome could influence Hamas’s approach to Gaza’s security and its regional alliances, particularly its ties with Iran and with states like Qatar, Egypt, and other Arab partners.In parallel, the Israeli military and intelligence community are watching for how any new Hamas leadership might affect security in Gaza and along Israel’s borders. The group is still under international scrutiny and under pressure from donors and mediators who want it to disarm and refrain from governance in Gaza. Israel’s current calculus emphasizes defending its citizens while avoiding a broader escalation, even as concerns remain about the potential for renewed violence if Hamas pursues renewed armed conflict or stalls in disarming.Turning to Iran, the Islamic Republic is confronting a wave of protests that has grown since late December, representing the most serious challenge to the regime in years. Demonstrations began over economic hardship and currency collapse, then broadened into demands for political change away from the clerical system. Rights groups say hundreds, potentially more, have been killed as security forces crack down, and an internet blackout complicates the task of assessing the situation. Analysts caution against predicting an imminent collapse but emphasize the protests have exposed vulnerabilities within the system, including the cohesion of the elite and the loyalty of security forces to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Some observers note the absence of a clear leadership coalition among opponents and the lack of a durable network able to sustain a sustained, organized challenge.For Israel and its allies, the Iranian crisis intersects with regional security calculations. Israel’s defense establishment says it is prepared for “surprise scenarios” and continues to monitor developments, particularly any potential spillover or external actions in support of protesters. The United States has openly discussed a range of options, from diplomacy to stronger measures, and has signaled support for the protesters while maintaining that diplomacy remains the preferred path. Washington has also moved to apply economic pressure, announcing a 25 percent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, as a tool to deter Tehran and its partners. The White House has described diplomacy as President Trump’s first option, even as it weighs possible military or cyber options and coordinates with allies. The Pentagon has briefed the administration on potential actions, and US officials have encouraged American citizens to consider leaving Iran due to security risks, while channeling signals of support to the Iranian populace.In this evolving environment, Israel continues to assess threats from multiple directions. While a direct conflict with Iran remains a central concern for regional stability, Washington's approach—balancing pressure, deterrence, and diplomacy—shapes how Tel Aviv and its partners respond to both Hamas’s evolving leadership and Tehran’s domestic crisis. The regional dynamics remain fragile, with the potential for rapid shifts depending on leadership decisions inside Hamas, the trajectory of the Iranian protests, and the international responses ...
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