UK manufacturing is expanding again. That sounds positive, but for anyone dealing with late payments, the detail matters: more orders can also mean more working-capital strain and more invoice disputes.

What happened

S&P Global’s UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in January 2026 (up from 50.6 in December) — the strongest reading since August 2024. New orders improved, export demand picked up, but employment still fell (just at a slower pace). Input costs rose sharply, linked to raw materials, energy, and labour. Confidence improved too.

Why it matters for debt collection

1. More sales, slower cash: When factories get busier, they buy more, pay more, and ship more but the gap between paying suppliers and getting paid can widen. Expect more “pay next week”, more part-payments, and more requests to extend terms.

2. Cost pressure drives disputes: Rising input costs often trigger arguments about price uplifts, delivery/quality claims, and admin delays like “missing PO” or “need GRN”.

3. Export chains add friction: Export growth is good for volume, but it can mean longer payment chains, more paperwork points of failure, and timing issues that stall collections.

Who feels it first

* Manufacturers + tier suppliers: higher volumes but tighter cash if costs rise faster than pricing power.

* Logistics/packaging: busier mid-chain firms can become late payers when they get paid last.

* Energy and labour-heavy operators: may prioritise payroll and critical bills, stretching trade creditors.

Collections playbook

* Segment your ledger: A (on time), B (7–21 days late trend), C (30+ days late/repeat disputers).

* Move faster on B: don’t let them drift into C; push for a dated plan in writing.

* Pre-empt disputes: right after invoicing, confirm PO, delivery note, goods received, and correct invoice refs.

* Escalate with structure: Day 7 chase + call, Day 14 plan or hold supply, Day 21 final demand / pre-legal.

Manufacturing is improving, but rising costs and admin friction can still drive late payment behaviour. If customers are busier, why are delays still happening and what will you change first: terms, process, or escalation timing?

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