Former Director of International Finance at the Federal Reserve, Dr. Steven Kamin, breaks down the transmission of US monetary policy to the rest of the world. We discuss his research on why emerging markets (EMs) have become more resilient to Fed tightening, the impact of Chinese subsidies, and the potential risks to the US dollar's safe-haven status. Plus, a deep dive into Javier Milei’s stabilization plan in Argentina.See his work here: https://www.aei.org/profile/steven-b-kamin/DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of the entities they represent.

(00:00) Introduction: Beating Sisyphus & Dr. Steven Kamin's Background(01:20) Living Abroad & Early Career in Latin America(03:14) The "Crisis Department" at the Federal Reserve(05:25) The "Great Moderation" vs. Post-2008 Volatility(06:55) Monetary Transmission: How US Rates Impact the World(09:47) The Volcker Shock vs. The 2005 "Good" Tightening(12:40) Real Shocks vs. Inflation Shocks: A Crucial Distinction(18:17) Supply Shocks: Does the Fed Look Through Them?(20:04) Emerging Markets: Endemic Inflation & Currency Weakness(22:04) China's Economy, Currency Manipulation & Subsidies(25:53) Vulnerability: Why Fundamentals Matter for EMs(27:50) Why Emerging Markets Were Resilient in 2024(31:11) The "China Factor" in Global Demand(33:23) US Dollar Dominance & Fiscal Responsibility Risks(36:24) "Liberation Day" & The Dollar-VIX Structural Break(43:08) Argentina: Milei, Stabilization, and Dollarization(46:25) Conclusion

#macroeconomics #fed #milei #chinaeconomy #forex