As Covid-19 restrictions lifted around the world and countries stopped reporting on case numbers, the events of 2020 and 2021 faded further into our collective memory. Against the threat of looming recession and a war in Europe, it was easy to forget the turmoil brought on by the pandemic. Then, in January 2023, China announced it was reopening its borders and abandoning quarantine measures. After 3 years, in which the entire population was locked down without regard for cost or consequence, China was open for business. It's ‘zero-Covid’ policy hit its economy hard. GDP in 2022 slumped to its lowest growth rate in almost half a century. Energy demand was affected as a result: LNG imports slumped 20% year-on-year, as did oil consumption. 

At the opening of the National People’s Congress in early March, outgoing Premier Li Keqiang announced a growth target of around 5% for 2023. Will China’s reconnection with the global economy provide enough of a boost in trade and investment? Under Wood Mackenzie’s base-case scenario, we now expect China’s economy to grow 5.5% this year. 

On the podcast today, we look at the possible pathways to growth for the Chinese economy, and the impact of its reopening on energy supply, markets and prices. 

Joining Liz Dennett are Alan Gelder and Massimo Di-Odoardo. Alan is Vice President of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie. Massimo is Vice President of Global Gas and LNG Research at Wood Mackenzie. 

Find out more and read the full Horizons report here

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The world is not going to run out of oil and gas any time soon. Total oil and gas resources are more than likely to double demand by 2050, with gas reserves sitting at 1.5 trillion oil-barrel equivalents. It’s the quality of this supply that’s the issue. Advantaged resources (price resilient and low emissions) could only be enough to supply half the demand by 2050. So what can companies do to mitigate this shortage? Diversification will be important, and investment in renewal, decarbonisation and low-carbon alternatives even more so. So what needs to be done? Upstream companies must act now, but where do they start? On the podcast today, we look at the options. Exploration of new fields, decarbonising existing assets and investment in low-carbon alternatives are all on the table. 

Liz Dennett is joined by Valentina Kretzschmar, Head of Energy Transition at Capricorn Energy. Valentina leads Capricorn’s net zero strategy. On the show she outlines the distinctions between emissions goals and forecasts, and explores the ever-changing role of oil and gas in the energy transition. Also joining Liz is Andrew Latham, Vice-President of Energy Research at Wood Mackenzie. Andrew provides upstream and exploration analysis, examining the trends that are shaping the industry and outlining the steps companies will likely take in the coming decades, as energy diversification evolves.

Read the February Horizons report at woodmac.com/horizons, and subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcasts.

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Without doubt, 2022 will be remembered as one of the most pivotal years in the history of power generation. It was the year that highlighted the folly of concentrated supply.

In Europe, the war in Ukraine raised energy security issues caused by heavy reliance on Russian gas. At the same time, China’s dominance of the solar and energy storage supply chains posed national security questions for energy policy planners.

These concerns have spurred European and North American policy makers to reshape renewable energy industry supply chains to reduce dependence on imported equipment.

On the 16 August 2022, the United States took its first and most significant step to reshape the renewables supply chain, with President Biden’s signing of the Inflation Reduction Act. Two key provisions are likely to be game- changing for equipment manufacturers. First, the Act provides a tax credit, known as the advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPC), for US-made renewable equipment.

Second, it incentivises developers of US renewable projects to purchase domestically produced equipment by providing an additional tax credit if they meet domestic content requirement (DCR) thresholds.

On the podcast, host Liz Dennett is joined by Horizons report author Daniel Liu, Head of Asset Commercial Performance at Wood Mackenzie, and Melissa Lott, Director of Research at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

Together they explore the implications for manufacturers, developers and investors off the back of the historic climate bill.

Read the full report here: https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/

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