In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively.

For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and our Ethiopia-Eritrea page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why Washington got involved and U.S. efforts to broker agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) – a proposed transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. They talk about whether the corridor could move forward even without a fully ratified peace deal and examine the remaining sticking points. They also assess Türkiye’s expanding role in the region, Iran’s concerns about the corridor, Russia’s waning influence and European policy. They examine why the Trump administration’s peacemaking appears to have been more successful in the South Caucasus than elsewhere.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out Joshua’s recent Analyst’s Notebook, “Vance Visit Reaffirms U.S. Push to End Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict” and our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Amjad Iraqi, Mairav Zonszein and Max Rodenbeck about President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace and its implications for Gaza. They unpack the structure of the board’s different layers, how Palestinians are reacting to the new Palestinian technocratic Gaza committee and what that committee will do. They look at conditions on the ground in Gaza amid frequent ceasefire violations and Hamas’s continued hold of parts of the strip. They also assess the obstacles to moving the peace plan forward, including working out agreement on the sequencing of Hamas decommissioning weapons, on one hand, and Israeli withdrawing troops and letting in reconstruction aid on the other, as well as the still-uncertain prospects for an international stabilisation force in the strip.

For more, check out our recent episodes “Norway’s FM Espen Barth Eide on Greenland, Iran, Trump’s Board of Peace and other crises”, “The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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